GILCHRIST OLYMPIO: CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003274

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2017
TAGS: PREL PINR KDEM TO FR
SUBJECT: GILCHRIST OLYMPIO: CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
CONCERNING LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS


Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 (b/d
).


1. (C) SUMNARY: UFC leader Gilchrist Olympio told us on
August 2 that he would travel to Togo within the next few
days, arriving in Lome probably on August 6 or 7. He
expressed cautious optimism about the legislative elections,
which he believed would take place in mid-October, although
he did not rule out attempts by President Faure Gnassingbe to
create further postponements. He expressed concern about the
management of the elections process but said that there were
sufficient protective mechanisms in place that, if properly
implemented, would ensure the holding of elections that he,
along with the broader international community, could accept.
He did not discount the likelihood of some level of fraud,
but he said that Faure was under such international scrutiny
that he might very well refrain from carrying out fraud or
electoral sabotage on a massive scale. Olympio said that the
UFC would field candidates in all of the legislatives
districts in the forthcoming elections. Olympio expressed
optimism that the Sarkozy government would break with past
traditions and take a more pragmatic and realistic posture
towards Togo and the rest of Africa, and not succumb to the
temptations that allowed Sarkozy's predecessors, including
especially Jacques Chirac, to embrace figures such as Faure's
father, Eyadema. END SUMMARY.

OVERVIEW OF ELECTORAL ISSUES


2. (C) Gilchrist Olympio, head of Togo's UFC opposition
party, met with us for 90 minutes on August 2. At the start,
he said that "things are going relatively well" with respect
to the legislative elections in Togo. Olympio said that
there were certainly many potential pitfalls and the
possibility that President Faure Gnassingbe might take steps
to ensure victory for his side, but that he (Olympio) was
"cautiously optimistic." Olympio described problems with
voter identification/registration kits, which were
insufficient in number, with an inadequate number of
technicians to operate them. He said, however, that voter
identification and registration seemed to be proceeding,
albeit slowly.


3. (C) Olympio thought that elections were most likely to
be held during the mid-October period. He was well aware of
the constitutional requirement to hold legislative elections
at least 30 days before the expiration of the current
legislature's mandate (which would require elections in
September),but he said that the date would have to slip in
order to accommodate the actual situation in Togo with
respect to voter registration and the like. He indicated
that he was comfortable with the October date. As he did at
several points during the conversation, he noted that Faure
could "always try something" to delay the elections further,
but he felt confident that they would take place more or less
as planned.

PERSONAL ENGAGEMENT


4. (C) Olympio said that he had been in Togo two weeks
previously and had traveled across the country to deliver his
political message, and had been well received wherever he
went. Most notably, he said that the Faure regime did
nothing to impede or hamper his activities. The government
provided a three-man security force to escort and protect
him, and that the team treated him courteously, shared meals
with him, and were most helpful with crowd control. He
believed that members of his security detail shared some of
his political views, although they refrained from saying so.


5. (C) Olympio said he planned to return to Togo within the
next few days, arriving in Lome on August 6 or 7. He said he
expected to continue his political activities. Based on his
most recent experience, he said he did expect that the regime
would hassle him or his associates.


6. (C) The UFC, Olympio continued, would be fully engaged
in the elections and would field candidates in every
electoral district. He said that the UFC had been faced with
a choice -- either participate or allow the government to
dominate the results. Olympio expressed confidence that the
UFC would do well, assuming the elections were conducted in a
reasonably fair manner.

ELECTORAL CONTROLS


7. (C) Olympio explained that much of his confidence was
based on the system of controls over the electoral process
and the likelihood that, absent an outright attempt to fix
the elections on Faure's part, they would ensure reasonably

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acceptable results. He noted the provisions for government,
opposition, and neutral observers at all key points in the
process, from voting, the initial counting of votes at
polling sites, the compiling of results at the regional
level, and the final tallying of votes at the national level.
He said that the EU, among others, had expressed an
intention to send observers, and he thanked the USG for its
contribution to the electoral process. Olympio said that he
would welcome as well the presence of NGO observers, such as
those from former President Carter's organization, and he
hoped that they would offer to participate.


8. (C) Although always wary that Faure could try to pull a
fast one, Olympio said that Faure was under intense
international scrutiny and that he would not likely act too
far out of line. There would be some level of fraud, for
sure, but Olympio doubted that Faure would have the audacity
to "steal" the election or provoke violence, as had been the
case during the 2005 poll.

FRANCE


9. (C) Olympio said that he hoped that the Sarkozy
government's arrival signaled a new and important chapter in
France's relations with Africa. He noted with disdain the
way that Sarkozy's predecessors, including especially Chirac,
had made a habit of embracing Africa's unsavory leaders, such
as Eyadema Gnassingbe, Bokassa, and others of their ilk.
Olympio understood that there would always be elements among
the French political class that would pressure Sarkozy and
other French leaders to continue the old, paternalistic, and
mutually self-serving "francafrique" ways of the past, but he
sensed that Sarkozy would adopt a more pragmatic,
transparent, and realistic policy. All Africans would
welcome such an approach, Olympio said.

COMMENT


10. (C) Olympio was markedly more relaxed and appeared much
less stressed than he had on previous occasions. He indulged
in fewer long-winded digressions, although he did launch into
one or two fierce anti-Gnassingbe diatribes and continued to
refer to Faure variously as "le garcon," "the boy," "le
fils," and "le petit." In overall terms, Olympio gave the
impression that he believed that maybe, just maybe, Faure had
been put in a position where he could not dare sabotage the
upcoming elections and that finally Olympio and the
opposition would be in a position to achieve some measure of
victory. END COMMENT.




Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
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