Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PARIS3199
2007-07-27 09:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

CFE: DAS KRAMER'S JULY 20 MTG WITH FRENCH OFFICIALS

Tags:  PREL PGOV MOPS MARR RS FR KCFE 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0008
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHFR #3199/01 2080915
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 270915Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9176
INFO RUEHXP/ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PRIORITY 5921
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 003199 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR RS FR KCFE
SUBJECT: CFE: DAS KRAMER'S JULY 20 MTG WITH FRENCH OFFICIALS


Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 003199

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/25/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR RS FR KCFE
SUBJECT: CFE: DAS KRAMER'S JULY 20 MTG WITH FRENCH OFFICIALS


Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT
FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a July 20 meeting with Jean-Hughes
Simon-Michel, PDAS-equivalent for Strategic Affairs, DAS
Kramer explained that Russian DFM Kislyak would be in the
U.S. the last week of July to discuss missile defense and CFE
issues. Though not optimistic, we hoped to obtain a better
understanding of Russia's flexibility on CFE. Kramer
insisted that any movement from the U.S. and Europe should
only be made in concert with a Russian commitment to the
process. Simon-Michel expressed French concerns about a
possible Russian arms build-up and said the GOF was actively
looking for a constructive way out of the current impasse.
On the question of suspension vs. withdrawal, Simon-Michel
said France hoped, despite legal niceties, that the
suspension would not be referred to as withdrawal. END SUMMARY

ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SITUATION
--------------


2. (C) In a July 20 meeting with Strategic Affairs
PDAS-equivalent Jean-Hughs Simon-Michel, DAS Kramer noted
that Russian DFM Kislyak would be in the U.S. the last week
of July to discuss defense issues. The U.S., he explained,
would not be looking to make a deal with the Russians, but
would be interested in exploring Russia's willingness to be
flexible on CFE. Russia's current rejection of the linkage
with its Istanbul commitments, he said, was not promising.
Kramer also stressed that it was too early to discuss the
flank regime -- this should not be done prior to the Treaty's
ratification. Reaffirmation by Slovenia and the Baltic
states' of their intent to join the Treaty when it is in
force, however, might be something that could be done in
concert with a clear Russian move in the right direction.
Kramer hoped to have a better understanding of the Russian
position after Kislyak's visit to Washington.

WHO MOVES FIRST ?
--------------


3. (C) Simon-Michel expressed strong concern about classical
arms control in Europe and stressed the need to find a
solution or a process before Russian suspension went into
effect on December 12. He said that France was aware of
Russian responsibilities, while arguing that, for face-saving
reasons, we did not have to oblige them to make the first
move. He suggested that the U.S. and Europeans give Russia a
signal of willingness to engage and make concessions.
Simon-Michel insisted the GOF was aware from the Kosovo
experience that Russia might not be prepared to compromise,
and he assured Kramer that France would not allow itself to
be manipulated in the process. Kramer noted that flexibility
by the Russians was critical if the U.S. and Europeans were
to be flexible as well. A show of goodwill should occur in
concert with a public or private commitment by the Russians
to engage constructively on implementation of the Istanbul
commitments. Despite a French warning to Moscow that an arms
build-up could work in both directions, Simon-Michel remained
convinced that there was some reason to worry that Russia, in
the absence of ratification of the adapted CFE Treaty, would
make a move to build up arms on its southern and western
borders.

U.S. FORCES IN EUROPE
--------------


4. (C) In response to probing by Simon-Michel, Kramer assured
him that the U.S. had no intention of increasing
significantly U.S. force levels in Europe -- not in Georgia,
Romania or Bulgaria. Troop levels were consistent with the
Treaty's obligations, and any anticipated increases would
remain within the Treaty's limits. The U.S., he stated, had
absolutely no interest in engaging in an arms race with
Russia.

SUSPENSION OR WITHDRAWAL ?
--------------


5. (C) Without a provision in the current CFE Treaty for
suspension, the U.S. had not yet determined how to deal with
the Russian announcement. Legally speaking, it appeared as
if suspension was equivalent to withdrawal, but U.S. lawyers
had yet to come to any determinations, Kramer explained.
Simon-Michel stated that France hoped to keep the rhetoric at
suspension, despite the legal niceties of the issue.


6. (U) This cable has been cleared with DAS Kramer.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

STAPLETON