GOF: NO GSP FOR MINSK; BEWARE ANOTHER KOZAK PLAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002606

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2017
TAGS: PREL XG EU BO MD UP RS FR
SUBJECT: GOF: NO GSP FOR MINSK; BEWARE ANOTHER KOZAK PLAN

Classified By: A/DCM JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D)


1. SUMMARY: (C) The MFA desk officer for Ukraine, Belarus,
and Moldova told poloff on June 14 that France fully
supported the EU's decision to remove Belarus from the
Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program and saw it as
a test for Lukashenko. On Moldova, Gosset was concerned
about President Voronin's bilateral discussions with Moscow
and wondered if a Kozak 2007 plan was in the works. He noted
that allies should encourage the 5 2 format for further talks
on Transnistria. And in Ukraine, there was little news, and
certainly no good news. END SUMMARY

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BELARUS
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2. (C) MFA desk officer for Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova,
Antoine Gosset, reported that France fully supported the June
13 EU Eastern Europe and Central Asia Working Group (COEST)
decision to move forward with removing Belarus from the EU's
Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program next week.
France, the UK, and others, he explained, remained
pessimistic about Lukashenko's recent overtures as they
appeared to be in response to Russian pressure. Recent
negative signs included the visit to Belarus of Iranian
President Ahmadinejad. France, Gosset said, had pushed hard
for COEST to remain pragmatic and flexible, but not to enter
into a "bargaining approach" with Minsk. Some members, he
noted, had suggested lifting names from the visa ban list in
response to the recent release of three political prisoners.
At the end of the day, France and others were able to
convince COEST to make GSP a test for Lukashenko and lay out
the EU's expectations. The Commission would continue to move
forward with Minsk on technical meetings in Brussels and one
energy meeting in Minsk by year's end. If Lukashenko
responds constructively despite the GSP decision, Brussels
might be more inclined to discuss the possibility of
revisiting existing restrictions.

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MOLDOVA/TRANSNISTRIA
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3. (C) Gosset expressed concern about President Voronin's
bilateral discussions with Moscow over Transnistria. France,
he said, was pleased that there were no unexpected surprises
at the informal CIS Summit in St. Petersburg on June 9, but
still believed it was possible that Putin and Voronin were
discussing a revitalized Kozak style plan. Russia, he said,
had made it known it was were willing to get rid of Smirnov,
as well as his security chief. Naturally, the question is
what Russia would obtain in return. He wondered if Russia
wasn't looking for a deal that would give Putin the kind of
credibility he needs to make him look like an honest broker
on Kosovo. Gosset stressed that interested parties, like the
U.S. and France, should encourage Voronin to stick to the 5 2
format, in order to keep the process fair and transparent.

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UKRAINE
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4. (C) Exasperated, Gosset noted that "Ukraine is a complete
mess." He stressed that for the moment France remained in a
wait-and-see mode, but that the Ukrainian government was
barely functioning. France had a lot of hope a few years
ago, he said, but the recent crises have demonstrated what it
knew all along: Ukrainian leaders, however well intentioned,
did not understand democratic ideals of governing and instead
sought to consolidate power through corruption and special
interests. Gosset said that the GOF expected to renew its
bilateral agreement for assistance to Ukraine by the end of
the year, but was only doing so as a confidence-building
measure and did not see the gesture as having any political
impact. The signing, not yet planned, would likely be the
only high level diplomatic contact between the two countries
for the 2007 calendar year.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm


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