COMOROS: FRANCE SHARES U.S. ASSESSMENT AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001892

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ADDIS ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR CN FR
SUBJECT: COMOROS: FRANCE SHARES U.S. ASSESSMENT AND
OBJECTIVES

REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 452


B. PRETORIA 1675

C. STATE 60497

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, 1.4 (b/d
).


1. (C) SUMMARY: MFA AF DAS-equivalent Jean-Claude Brunet
on May 10 said that France shared USG views (refs A and B)
on the current situation in the Comoros. The situation had
calmed in the past few days, but much depended on how
President Sambi now responded to Anjouan "President" Bacar's
conditions. Brunet said that France generally shared U.S.
objectives concerning the stability of the islands, their
unity and integrity, and peaceful resolution of disputes. It
was critical that upcoming elections take place peacefully
and transparently. He indicated the importance of working
with the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank
(AfDB) to help the Comoros develop economically, particularly
in the agricultural sector. Brunet encouraged an active U.S.
role regarding the Comoros and the broader region. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) MFA DAS-equivalent for Southern Africa/Indian Oceans
Jean-Claude Brunet met with Embassy Africa Watchers on May 10
to discuss the situation in the Comoros (ref C). MFA
deskofficer Stephane Le Brech also attended. Brunet said the
GOF much appreciated the Department spokesperson's May 4
statement calling for calm and the peaceful resolution of
disputes. We shared with Brunet the substance of refs A and
B, noting the apparent lessening of tension over the past few
days. Brunet and Le Brech said that the GOF had the same
assessment of the current situation.


3. (C) Brunet said that much hinged on how Sambi would
respond to the "conditions" Bacar had set for his cooperation
in resolving the crisis. Brunet did not speculate on what
Bacar might do. Brunet suggested that the scheduling of the
elections in order to avoid a long delay between the
expiration of Bacar's term of office and the vote for new
leadership could have been handled better. Brunet also
thought that Sambi would have avoided trouble had he not
named as interim Anjouan president a former head of the
Assembly, whom Bacar had previously forced from office.
Brunet observed that such machinations were standard fare in
the Comoros; given the history of repeated coups, the level
of trust among leaders was not high.


4. (C) Brunet said that France and the U.S. appeared to
share similar objectives regarding the Comoros -- support for
democracy, unity and territorial integrity, and peaceful
resolution of disputes. Brunet indicated that the U.S. could
play a very positive role and he welcomed what he believed
was a relatively new U.S. presence in the islands (referring
to the locally-hired staff member reporting to Embassy
Antananarivo).


5. (C) Brunet stressed the importance of the upcoming
elections and the need to ensure their fairness and
transparency. He said that France was going to send a
military logistical support unit from Reunion to assist
elections observers from neighboring states who would be
present for the vote. He stressed that this military unit
would perform logistical support only. He indicated,
however, that the French and EU were considering how best to
observe and otherwise support the elections. Africa Watchers
mentioned briefly the recent diplomatic note received at
Embassy Paris (forwarded to the Department) in which the
Comoros asked for various forms of USG elections support.


6. (C) Brunet noted the important strategic location of the
Comoros and concerns that it not be allowed to become a
failed state and a potential locus of criminal or terrorist
activity. In that regard, he noted President Sambi's
background and uncertainty about the eventual policies he
might come to support -- Sambi was of Yemenite origin, had
studied in Saudi Arabia (from which he was apparently
expelled for reasons that remain obscure),and had finished
his studies in Tehran. Given this background, Brunet said
that Sambi was a bit of a cipher and warranted attention. He
noted that the Anjouan island itself had a substantial Shiite
population.


PARIS 00001892 002 OF 002



7. (C) France's specific priorities centered on: (1)
successful elections in June; (2) a final and effective
reorganization of the islands' security forces and their
structure; (3) revitalized economic development, particularly
in the agricultural sector; and (4) arrangements with the
IMF, World Bank, and AfDB to boost the economy. Concerning
the latter issue, Brunet said that the Comoros carried an
international debt of about USD 32 million, which he thought
could be reduced to about USD 10 million. He indicated that
France would work with the IFIs on debt reduction.


8. (C) Brunet said that France-Comoros relations were still
characterized by suspicion and lack of trust on the part of
the Comorans and enduring bitterness about Mayotte's
perceived privileged status. Brunet stressed, however, that
the "old days" (i.e., the chaotic period of coups,
counter-coups, and players such as Bob Denard) were long past
and that France hoped to develop balanced and positive
relations. He regretted that a recent seemingly innocuous
event -- a change in Mayotte's telephone area code, which
Brunet said was necessary for purely technical reasons to
meet the demand for more phone numbers -- had reignited
Comoran suspicion of the French. He observed that despite
the change in area code one could -- sometimes --
successfully make inter-island calls using the old area code.
Brunet indicated that this typified the way that things
often work (and do not work) in the Comoros.


9. (C) COMMENT: One of Brunet's recurring themes was his
encouragement for the U.S. to take a more active and
positive role in the Comoros. He said several times that the
U.S. could have strong influence and that Comorans would
likely pay very close attention to anything the U.S. did or
said regarding the region. END COMMENT.


Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

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