Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PARIS1155
2007-03-23 16:42:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LEADERS HOLDING STEADY ONE

Tags:  PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON 
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DE RUEHFR #1155/01 0821642
ZNR UUUUU ZZH (CCY AD97913B MSI7492-695)
O 231642Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5916
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
UNCLAS PARIS 001155 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LEADERS HOLDING STEADY ONE
MONTH FROM FIRST-ROUND ELECTION DAY

Summary
--------
UNCLAS PARIS 001155

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C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CLASS. PARA. 8 CHANGED)

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
AND EB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: LEADERS HOLDING STEADY ONE
MONTH FROM FIRST-ROUND ELECTION DAY

Summary
--------------

1. (U) With one month to go before the April 22 first round
of France's presidential election, the campaigns of all
twelve candidates are in high gear. Nicolas Sarkozy, who
leaves his post as Interior Minister on March 26 to dedicate
himself full-time to the presidential race, continues to lead
in all polls at around 30 percent, and may have slightly
increased his advantage in first-round voter intentions.
Socialist Segolene Royal seems to have reversed her falling
numbers and stabilized at just below 25 percent, while the
recent surge in the poll numbers of "third man" challenger
Francois Bayrou seems to have leveled out at around 20
percent. Nationalist extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen continues
to trail at under 15 percent, and has suggested he "could"
call on his supporters to vote for Sarkozy in the election's
second round May 6. The three leading candidates were
actively maneuvering to increase their potential voting
shares: Sarkozy admitted that his controversial proposal for
Ministry of Immigration and National Identity is intended in
part to rally a significant portion of Le Pen voters; to
undercut Bayrou, Royal called for a a "Sixth Republic" and
even a "constituent assembly"; and centrist Francois Bayrou
-- at a venue with 6400 seats that represented a quantum jump
in scale for a Bayrou-featured political event -- sounded
like a leftist when lambasting Sarkozy for being a "friend of
billionaires," and a rightist when lambasting Royal for
aiming to "impose the Finnish social model on France." End
Summary.

Twelve Candidates on the First-Round Ballot
--------------

2. (U) On March 19, France's Constitutional Council
announced that twelve candidates had qualified for the 2007
presidential race. There was never any doubt that the three
mainstream candidates -- Interior Minister and President of

the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party Nicolas Sarkozy,
Poitou-Charentes region president and Socialist Party (PS)
nominee Segolene Royal, and president of the centrist Union
for French Democracy (UDF) party Francois Bayrou -- would
make the cut. The remaining nine contenders, including 2002
second-place finisher Jean-Marie Le Pen, struggled to obtain
the 500 signatures from local elected officials necessary to
qualify. Most press commentary centered on whether the five
candidates from far-left micro-parties could "take" enough
votes from Royal to condemn her to a third place finish
behind Bayrou, and elimination from the race. (Note: In the
first round of the 2002 presidential contest, the eight
minor, leftist candidates -- of a record-breaking total of
sixteen candidates -- took nearly 30 percent of the
first-round vote, causing the Socialist nominee, Lionel
Jospin, to finish third behind right-wing extremist
Jean-Marie Le Pen. In this year's elections, the Socialists
have done their utmost to limit the number of far-left
candidates and urged left-leaning voters "to make their votes
count" by supporting Royal directly in the first round. End
note.)


3. (U) In 2007's first round, there are "only" five, far
left/green minor candidates. Among them are six-time
presidential contender Arlette Laguiller of the Worker,s
Struggle (LO) party; postman and Communist Revolutionary
League (LCR) leader Olivier Besancenot; the Communist Party's
(PC) Marie-George Buffet; and small town mayor Gerard
Schivardi of the Worker,s Party (PT). Anti-globalization
activist Jose Bove also managed to make the cut. Rounding
out the field on the left is former Environment Minster
Dominique Voynet of the Green Party (Les Verts). The right
of the political spectrum will be represented (for the fourth
time) by nationalist extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of
the National Front (FN) and anti-EU nationalist Philippe de
Villiers of the Movement for France (MPF) party, as well as
Frederic Nihous of the minuscule Hunting, Fishing, Nature and
Traditions (CPNT) party.

Little Change in Relative Standing of Leaders
--------------
In Latest Polls
--------------

4. (U) Polls released during the week of March 19 - 23 show
that Sarkozy's lead in first-round voter intentions is
holding at around 30 percent (and possibly increasing
slightly as the percentage of decided voters also increases
slightly). Royal seems to have stopped the downward slide in

her poll numbers, and is holding steady at about 25 percent
of first-round voter intentions in all polls. Bayrou,
depending on the poll, comes in with between 21 and 17
percent of first-round voter intentions, clearly indicating
that the surge in his poll numbers over past weeks has, for
the moment, stalled. Le Pen hangs in there, unchanged, at
just under 15 percent.

Sarkozy: Turns to the Right to Secure his Base
-------------- -

5. (U) The repercussions of uncontrolled immigration are a
key issue for "popular France" -- the portion of the society
that is less well-off and less well-educated, and feels most
threatened by job competition from immigrants and by the
culture clash that accompanies the sociological
transformation of neighborhoods. The bulk of Le Pen's
constituency falls into this "popular" category, and Sarkozy
has long counted on winning the support of a significant
portion of them. In proposing a Ministry of Immigration and
National Identity, Sarkozy was responding to a public demand
(that goes well beyond Le Pen voters) that the government get
immigration under control. Sarkozy was also burnishing his
credentials among the Le Pen supporters for whom immigration
is the key issue. In a TV appearance March 19, Sarkozy
freely acknowledged that his proposal to establish a new
immigration ministry represented an attempt to win far-right
votes. Sarkozy said that it was his intention to "bring back
into the camp of the republic those voters who have gone over
to the National Front."


6. (U) At a large rally of youthful supporters in Paris
March 19, Sarkozy firmly defended the controversial "national
identity" dimension of his new immigration ministry proposal.
Sarkozy delivered another of his signature, energetic and
thought-through, political speeches; glossing over the
traditional focus of French national identity on shared
language and culture, he emphasized shared conviction about
the political principles of the French Republic. Drawing
inspiration from an American model, Sarkozy evoked Martin
Luther King, saying, "I too have a dream that one day all the
children whose families have been French for generations, and
all the children of immigrants can sit together at the table
of French fraternity."

Royal: Many Jarred by "Constituent Assembly" Suggestion
-------------- --------------

7. (U) Also on March 19, before a gathering of Socialist
Party (PS) elected officials, Royal highlighted a series of
institutional reforms that, she suggested, would add up to a
"Sixth Republic." Among the key features of her reform
package for France's political institutions are strengthening
the powers of the legislature to better balance those of the
executive, limiting the French practice of allowing
politicians to hold several elective offices simultaneously,
and introducing a measure of proportionality in the voting
system used to select members of parliament. Royal brought
these reform proposals to the fore to counter the rising
popularity of centrist Francois Bayrou, who has also proposed
amending France's constitutional framework along similar
lines. Perhaps trying to outdo Bayrou, Royal went so far as
to say that she was prepared to convene a "constituent
assembly8 to pass the reforms if necessary. Even many
supporters found her proposal of a constitutional convention
a bit extreme, and critics jumped on the suggestion to raise
questions about her "political judgment."


8. (U) Spokespersons immediately tried to walk back Royal's
"constituent assembly" suggestion, not least out of worry
that no consensus exists among the French public (or in the
Socialist Party) for undertaking far-reaching changes to the
constitution of the Fifth Republic, but also because no one
believes that France is facing the kind of existential crisis
for which a constituent assembly would be the appropriate
remedy. (Note: There are two ways to amend the
constitution. Changes approved by the National Assembly and
Senate can then be adopted by both houses meeting "in
congress," or they can be adopted by national referendum,
once approved by both houses. If elected, Royal would face
the opposition of a Senate that will continue to be dominated
by a center-right majority, and the uncertainty of how voters
might react to a referendum. There are only four instances
of constituent assemblies -- the equivalent of a
constitutional convention -- in modern French history (1789,
1848, 1875, and 1945),each time when France faced
existential crises. End note.)

Bayrou: Still Succeeding (Though Poll Numbers Stall)
-------------- --------------

9. (U) Francois Bayrou received a warm welcome during a tour
of a poor, largely immigrant suburban neighborhood near Paris
on March 20. "I am not naturally a candidate of the
suburbs," Bayrou admitted during his walk down a local market
street in the suburb of Mantes La Jolie. "My constituency is
rural -- but I am here," he added. Bayrou's campaign stroll
generated reams of favorable press coverage the following
day, with several commentators noting that rival Nicolas
Sarkozy had yet to set foot in an immigrant suburb for fear
of sparking, possibly violent, demonstrations against him.
(Note: Sarkozy's campaign put out a statement that he has
visited poor suburbs at least 500 times as Interior Minister.
End note.) On March 21 Bayrou went on to hold the largest
rally of his campaign so far. Speaking to an overflow -- and
boisterous -- crowd at a venue in Paris better known for
rock concerts than centrist party political rallies, Bayrou
displayed his peculiar brand of fence-straddling as he
successfully lambasted both Sarkozy and Royal. Sounding very
much like a leftist, Bayou blasted Sarkozy as "a friend of
billionaires" who is intent on "imposing the American model"
on France. Sounding very much like a rightist, Bayrou
derided Royal as a lightweight who would diminish France by
"imposing the Finnish model." Bayrou's multiple references
to his humble, rural roots (he grew up on his father's horse
farm in southwestern France) were heartily applauded by his
enthusiastic, Parisian supporters.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

STAPLETON