Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PARIS1119
2007-03-22 13:34:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

PARIS CLUB - MARCH 2007 TOUR D'HORIZON

Tags:  EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR 
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VZCZCXRO2554
RR RUEHGI RUEHPOD
DE RUEHFR #1119/01 0811334
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221334Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5845
INFO RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 6525
RUEHSW/AMEMBASSY BERN 1943
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 1828
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 6139
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1686
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 1428
RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI 1273
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 6456
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID 2560
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 5788
RUEHNY/AMEMBASSY OSLO 1460
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA 2066
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 8308
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 1398
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM 1478
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 2692
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2464
RUEHVI/AMEMBASSY VIENNA 1704
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 1962
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0458
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0828
RUEHWN/AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN 0272
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 1383
RUEHPF/AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH 0222
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 0067
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 1150
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 1180
RUEHJL/AMEMBASSY BANJUL 0305
RUEHGB/AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 0575
RUEHAB/AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN 1070
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 1239
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK 0328
RUEHMV/AMEMBASSY MONROVIA 7261
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 0497
RUEHPOD/AMEMBASSY PODGORICA 0017
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0746
RUEHPL/AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS 0850
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 0732
RUEHAR/AMEMBASSY ACCRA 0738
RUEHAN/AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO 0967
RUEHCO/AMEMBASSY COTONOU 0894
RUEHDK/AMEMBASSY DAKAR 1348
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0203
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 PARIS 001119 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA
TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF
SECDEF FOR USDP/DSAA
HONG KONG FOR Marlene Sakaue
PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS -- EDELARIVA
PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/DERICKSON/KCHADWICK
PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS
PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR
SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - MARCH 2007 TOUR D'HORIZON

REF: Paris 328

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY.

-------
SUMMARY
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 12 PARIS 001119

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EB/IFD/OMA
TREASURY FOR DO/IDD AND OUSED/IMF
SECDEF FOR USDP/DSAA
HONG KONG FOR Marlene Sakaue
PASS EXIM FOR CLAIMS -- EDELARIVA
PASS USDA FOR CCC -- ALEUNG/DERICKSON/KCHADWICK
PASS USAID FOR CLAIMS
PASS DOD FOR DSCS -- PBERG

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EFIN ECON EAID XM XA XH XB XF FR
SUBJECT: PARIS CLUB - MARCH 2007 TOUR D'HORIZON

REF: Paris 328

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY.

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The March 14 meeting of the Paris Club reviewed the debt
status of 24 countries, taking steps to prepare for debt treatments
in the coming months for the Central African Republic (likely in
April),the Gambia (in May),Sao Tome and Principe (in May),and
Liberia. Creditors confirmed their intention to continue acting as
a group in encouraging Argentina and Angola to resolve their
arrears, even as both countries have declined to accept an IMF
program and hence do not qualify for a formal rescheduling of debt
under Paris Club rules. The Secretariat will approach Peru and
Gabon to clarify their prepayment or buyback offers and convey
Creditors' initial indication of a favorable response. The U.S.
will be able to accept prepayment by Peru, which could come to Paris
for negotiations as early as April. Creditors reported good
progress toward completing bilateral agreements with Afghanistan,
but not with Cambodia and Iraq. Chad, Ivory Coast, and Kenya
continue to have trouble meeting conditions for the next phase of
debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC)
initiative, while the Kyrgyz Republic has declined HIPC status in
favor of non-traditional bilateral debt relief. Other countries on
the agenda included Antigua and Barbuda, North Korea, Serbia and
Montenegro, the Seychelles, Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Benin and
Senegal.

--------------
Afghanistan
--------------

PARIS 00001119 002 OF 012




2. (U) Creditors agreed to postpone until May 31, 2007 the deadline
for Afghanistan to conclude bilateral agreements implementing the
July 2006 Paris Club agreement. Russia said it had just received

(March 13) a response to the draft bilateral agreement it had
proposed to Afghanistan and would be reviewing it in the coming
days. Germany said it expected to sign its bilateral agreement at
the end of March. (The US-Afghanistan bilateral agreement entered
into force on March 16, 2007.)

--------------
Angola
--------------


3. (SBU) Creditors agreed on a strategy for reengaging with Angola
in the wake of the GRA's decision not to pursue an IMF program. In
recent months, Angola has cleared most, but not all, of its arrears
to the Paris Club, excluding late interest. In a letter sent to the
Secretariat in February, the GRA stated it wanted to negotiate

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bilaterally the cancellation of late interest accumulated over the
last 18 years (totaling approximately USD 2 billion, but none owed
to the U.S.). Creditors concluded that in the absence of an IMF
program, a formal agreement to treat late interest would violate
Paris Club principles. Nonetheless, they concurred that resolution
of late interest should be addressed as a group, and recognized
Angola's good-faith efforts to clear arrears.


4. (SBU) Paris Club Chairman Musca proposed the following
strategy:

-- Angola must first clear its remaining arrears (excluding late
interest). Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden all
reported arrears.


PARIS 00001119 003 OF 012


-- Once arrears have been cleared, Angola should unilaterally pay
40-60% of the late interest due and then propose a schedule for
paying off the balance over time.

-- In return, Paris Club members' export credit agencies, at their
discretion, could decide to reopen export cover. (Spain confirmed
that its ECA has already extended new but limited short-term export
financing to Angola.)

-- As an additional inducement, creditors might offer, on a
bilateral basis but subject to Paris Club coordination, to reduce
the late interest rate or any penalty charges.

-- Creditors could also offer debt-for-aid and debt-for-equity
swaps, based on existing limitations.


5. (SBU) Citing precedent concerns related to debt treatment
without an IMF program, the U.S. cautioned the Paris Club to be
careful that this approach be clearly distinct from a formal
rescheduling. To that end, creditors should not formally normalize
relations until all arrears and late interest charges have been
cleared. Despite this concern, the U.S. did not attempt to block
the proposed strategy, recognizing the need for a creative solution
and the fact the U.S. is one of only two creditors (along with
Germany) to whom Angola is current. The Secretariat will send a
letter to the GRA expressing creditors' willingness "to explore the
possibilities of total regularization of late interest payments on a
multilateral basis" once all arrears have been cleared. Musca will
follow up by seeking a bilateral meeting with Angolan Finance
Minister de Morais in the coming weeks.

--------------
Antigua and Barbuda
--------------

PARIS 00001119 004 OF 012




6. (SBU) The IMF said the new government has no interest in an IMF
program, but is eager to normalize relations with its creditors.
Total government debt is USD 983 million (102% of GDP),of which USD
231 million is owed to external commercial creditors and USD 92
million to external bilateral creditors (including the Paris Club).
France, Japan, and the UK each reported that they had rescheduled
some of Antigua and Barbuda's debt bilaterally in the past, and in
each case payments were again in arrears. Italy acknowledged that
it canceled 90% of its claims in 2005 (stating that it reported this
to the Secretariat at the time). France said the new government
contacted French officials seeking partial debt cancellation. The
Secretariat will initiate a data call, followed by a letter to the

SIPDIS
GOAB requesting arrears clearance and explaining the Paris Club's
rules.

--------------
Argentina
--------------


7. (SBU) Spain defended its decision to restructure its 2001
emergency loan to Argentina outside the Paris Club as a "principled
action" based on the loan's special nature. Moreover, Spain claimed
that the terms of the rescheduling, though not concessional, were
not so demanding they could undermine Argentina's capacity to repay
its remaining Paris Club debt (including to Spain). Spain stressed
it had made it clear to Argentina that the agreement could not be
used as a reference for any future deal in the Paris Club.
Creditors reiterated the importance of maintaining solidarity and
staying on message (i.e., there can be no rescheduling without an
IMF program, and Argentina should use its current strong financial
position to clear its arrears in full). The Netherlands continued
to encourage creditors to consider creative solutions.


PARIS 00001119 005 OF 012



8. (SBU) Chairman Musca stressed the critical importance of Export
Credit Agencies (ECAs) not going back on cover prematurely; to do
so, he said, would seriously undermine the club's leverage. While
Musca recognized that the Paris Club had no authority over its
members' ECAs, he requested delegations keep the Secretariat
informed of any ECA plans to reopen in Argentina, adding he would
personally intervene to discourage such a move. In response to
Germany's request that the Secretariat approach the GOA, Musca
indicated he would take advantage of every opportunity to convey
again the Paris Club's message (and urged each creditor to do the
same),but thought a true dialogue would not be possible until
Argentina first made a serious offer.

--------------
Cambodia
--------------


9. (SBU) The U.S. and Russia reported no progress in concluding
bilateral agreements implementing the 1995 Paris Club agreement.
Russia said it had sent a letter to Phnom Penh offering to resume
negotiations in March, but had yet to receive a response. The
Secretariat will send a letter to the authorities urging them to

SIPDIS
conclude these bilateral agreements and stressing the importance of
inter-creditor equity when making payments. Japan sought to
reassure other creditors that Cambodia's recent unilateral
prepayment was done without prior consultation.

--------------
Central African Republic
--------------


10. (SBU) CAR is scheduled to come to the Paris Club in April to
negotiate a Naples flow treatment under the Heavily Indebted Poor
Country (HIPC) initiative. The IMF said CAR could reach "Decision

PARIS 00001119 006 OF 012


Point" and be eligible for additional interim debt relief at the
time of the first review of its Poverty Reduction and Growth
Facility (PRGF) program in September 2007. Completion of the HIPC
process could follow as early as 2009. Russia reported for the
first time unresolved data discrepancies from its 1998 bilateral
agreement with Cambodia (initialed but never signed),but sought to
reassure the Chair that it could still work out this problem in time
for the negotiations to proceed at the Paris Club meeting in April.

--------------
Chad
--------------


11. (U) The IMF said the first and second reviews of the PRGF could
be completed by end-May. The reviews have been delayed due to a
dispute over the management of oil revenues and fiscal overruns,
resulting in the suspension of HIPC interim relief. (The US is not
a creditor.)

--------------
Gabon
--------------


12. (SBU) The Secretariat said Gabon's offer to buy back its Paris
Club debt at a 33% discount mixes two distinct options: one is a
request for debt reduction under the Evian approach, and the other
to pay off the debt early, either at face value or a market price.
Creditors agreed that, under the Evian approach, Gabon was free to
pursue debt reduction once it had an IMF program in place, but also
thought it would not meet the eligibility criteria. Several
creditors said they would welcome a prepayment at face value, and
possibly a buyback at a market price, depending on the size of the
discount. The Secretariat said an appropriate market discount would
certainly be less than 33%.

PARIS 00001119 007 OF 012




13. (SBU) The Secretariat confirmed that buybacks are reserved for
debtor countries having graduated from the risk of a Paris Club
rescheduling and said Gabon was in this category (despite its
apparent request for debt reduction and vulnerability to oil
production declines and price volatility). As a next step, the
Secretariat will ask the GOG to clarify its request. If a buyback

SIPDIS
at a market price is the goal, the Secretariat will begin technical
work to determine the appropriate discount. The IMF cautioned that
Gabon does not have any market-traded debt that can be used as a
reference.

--------------
The Gambia
--------------


14. (U) Following the approval of a new PRGF, creditors are
contemplating whether to invite The Gambia to Paris in May to
negotiate the resumption of HIPC interim relief. Typically, the
resumption of HIPC interim relief can be accomplished by email, but
in this case, the existence of arrears to Norway -- The Gambia's
largest Paris Club creditor -- may require face-to-face
negotiations. According to the IMF, The Gambia could reach HIPC
"Completion Point" at the time of the first review in the second
half of 2007. (The US is not a creditor.)

--------------
Iraq
--------------


15. (SBU) Russia repeated its familiar refrain that its bilateral
agreement with Iraq has been finalized but not yet approved. The
U.S. followed up on its January request (reftel) that Germany
explain in writing its attempt to collect 100% of post-1990

PARIS 00001119 008 OF 012


pre-cutoff date claims on Iraq. The German representative
(attending his first Paris Club meeting) declined to go into detail
and suggested that the issue would best be addressed bilaterally
rather than in the Club. He claimed the US was already familiar
with the matter and that the Iraqis themselves had agreed the debt
in question was not subject to Paris Club terms. The Secretariat
supported the U.S. position, however, that this was an issue for the
Club and called on Germany to submit a written explanation of its
actions before concluding any deal with Iraq. Germany agreed but
complained that it was being singled out unfairly.

--------------
Ivory Coast
--------------


16. (U) An IMF mission to the Ivory Coast is scheduled for late
April to discuss a new Emergency Post-Conflict Arrangement (EPCA).
Fund reengagement will depend on clearance of arrears to the World
Bank and African Development Bank. They anticipate a sequential
treatment plan that will allow new financing after arrears are
cleared, a unity government is in place, and security improves. The
Secretariat will request creditors submit data to get a current

SIPDIS
picture of Ivory Coast's PARIS CLUB debt.

--------------
Kenya
--------------


17. (U) The IMF has extended Kenya's PRGF again, this time until
April 30, to allow time for completion of the long-delayed second
review. Creditors will decide at the April meeting whether to enter
into force the third and final phase of Kenya's 2004 rescheduling,
which is conditioned on completion of the review. The third phase
covers maturities falling due in 2006.

PARIS 00001119 009 OF 012



--------------
Kyrgyz Republic
--------------


18. (U) The IMF and World Bank said the GKR has decided not to
participate in the HIPC initiative. Responding to the Chair, the
IMF did not think bilateral creditors would need to provide
additional relief as a result of the KR forgoing debt forgiveness
under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI).

--------------
Liberia
--------------


19. (U) The IMF said a Rights Accumulation Program (RAP) could be
presented to the executive board as soon as the Fund receives
financing assurances from Paris Club creditors related to the
provision of debt relief under HIPC and MDRI. The Paris Club would
be expected to provide interim debt relief (Naples terms) upon
approval of the RAP. The IMF said Liberia could reach HIPC Decision
Point very quickly thereafter, at which time the Paris Club would
provide addition interim debt relief (Cologne terms).


20. (U) The Secretariat distributed the results of the latest data
call. As of January 1, 2006, Liberia owed the Paris Club USD 1.2
billion, of which USD 1.1 billion consists of arrears and late
interest. The United States is the largest creditor, accounting for
33% of the debt, followed by Germany (31%) and Japan (11%).

--------------
North Korea
--------------


PARIS 00001119 010 OF 012



21. (SBU) Russia confirmed that it had discussed debt issues with
North Korea, but contrary to press reports, said it had not agreed
to any debt cancellation. Russia said North Korea has repeatedly
asked Russia for 100% cancellation of its USD 9 billion debt.
Russia has advised North Korea to normalize relations with the IMF
and resolve its debt problems in a multilateral framework. North
Korea has declined to pursue this course of action. Russia expects
North Korea to raise the debt issue again in bilateral talks
scheduled for late March. The Secretariat noted that the Paris
Club's solidarity principle does not exclude bilateral negotiations
with a debtor country that has no prospect of a Paris Club
agreement. There should be a consensus within the Paris Club,
however, before bilateral negotiations take place. Switzerland and
the Netherlands also reported holding North Korean debt, but have
had no substantive bilateral discussions on any debt treatment.

--------------
Peru
--------------


22. (SBU) Creditors welcomed Peru's offer to prepay at face value
its previously rescheduled non-ODA (official development assistance)
debt falling due between 2010 and 2015. The Secretariat said Peru
would decide on the precise prepayment amount based on the extent of
creditor participation. Noting Peru's relatively narrow credit
spread (over the cost of U.S. Treasuries),the Secretariat estimated
the market price of Peru's fixed-rate Paris Club debt at 5-10% above
face value. Germany and Italy questioned whether the prepayment
should include a buyback option (i.e., at the higher than face value
price) similar to the agreement concluded with Russia last year.
The Secretariat will alert Peru to this possibility and expects
negotiations to take place in either April or May in Paris. The
U.S. will be able to participate in a prepayment.


PARIS 00001119 011 OF 012


--------------
Sao Tome and Principe
--------------


23. (U) The Secretariat will invite STP to the Paris Club in May
for its Completion Point debt treatment under HIPC. Russia reported
that it has not been able to conclude its bilateral agreement
implementing the September 2005 Paris Club Terms of Reference. (The
US is not a creditor.)

--------------
Serbia and Montenegro
--------------


24. (U) Several creditors (Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Norway,
Switzerland) complained that Serbia and Montenegro have refused to
allocate debt between themselves according to the debtor/guarantor
principle, and therefore no progress has been made toward concluding
bilateral agreements. Although feeling hampered by delays in the
formation of a new Serbian government, the Secretariat agreed to
send a letter to the head of the Serbian Treasury reiterating the
Paris Club's position, as articulated in a November 13 letter, that
bilateral agreements between the Paris Club and the two countries
must follow the debtor/guarantor principle, unless the creditor
agrees to accept the final beneficiary principle (as the U.S. is
willing to do).

--------------
Seychelles
--------------


25. (U) Creditors reported that they had received their share of
the Seychelles' 4 million euros arrears payment. The Secretariat
will send a letter to the GOS thanking it for the payment and

PARIS 00001119 012 OF 012


encouraging the Seychelles to pursue an IMF program. (The US is not
a creditor.)

-------------- --------------
Post-HIPC Countries - Comparable Treatment Follow-Up
-------------- --------------


26. (U) The Secretariat summarized the responses received from
Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Benin, and Senegal regarding their
efforts to obtain debt relief from non-Paris Club creditors as an
indication that more work is needed to ensure comparable treatment
and debt sustainability. As a next step, the Secretariat proposed a
draft letter to IMF Managing Director Rato calling on IMF and World
Bank staff to provide technical assistance to HIPC beneficiaries.
The IMF reported that it already works with these countries on debt
management issues and recognizes the need for capacity building, but
also pointed out that it has little sway over non-Paris Club
creditors. The IMF will soon issue a paper on this challenge. The
Secretariat will circulate a draft letter based on these

SIPDIS
discussions.

STAPLETON#