Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PARIS1038
2007-03-16 17:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Paris
Cable title:  

ELECTION SNAPSHOT: ROYAL AND SARKOZY UNCERTAIN HOW

Tags:  PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON 
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VZCZCXRO8030
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHFR #1038/01 0751702
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 161702Z MAR 07
FM AMEMBASSY PARIS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5700
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/DEPARTMENT OF LABOR WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001038 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
AND EB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2012
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: ROYAL AND SARKOZY UNCERTAIN HOW
TO COUNTER BAYROU, AS LE PEN HANGS IN THERE

REF: EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR MARCH 15

AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001038

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, INR/EUC, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD,
AND EB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2012
TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT: ROYAL AND SARKOZY UNCERTAIN HOW
TO COUNTER BAYROU, AS LE PEN HANGS IN THERE

REF: EMBASSY PARIS DAILY SIPRNET REPORT FOR MARCH 15

AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reaso
ns 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Asked to predict the result of the first round of the
French presidential election now five weeks away, President
Chirac is reported to have facetiously replied, "I see
Sarkozy, Royal, Bayrou and Le Pen each getting 20 percent of
the vote." In the most reputable polls there remains more
than a ten point spread between Sarkozy, still the leader at
above 25 percent of first round voter intentions, and Le Pen,
at below 15 percent. Nevertheless there is a very rough
accuracy to the presidential anecdote's suggestion of
convergence among the top four contenders. A key Bayrou
staffer told us March 14 that some polls to be published over
the weekend of March 17 - 18 will show Bayrou coming in ahead
of Royal in first round voter intentions. That development
would further boost surging "Bayroumania," and add to the
drumbeat of complaints that the polls are literally making
the news, as coverage of changes in the polls creates
credibility for options (like Bayrou, or before him, Royal)
that the public had little regard for until changing poll
numbers, and attendant media coverage, snowballed these
candidates into contenders of the first rank. Both Sarkozy
and Royal, still the leaders -- but more precariously so --
are struggling for the right strategies to undermine Bayrou,
and prevent him from upsetting their long-projected plans for
a Sarkozy-versus-Royal second-round face-off. Royal's
candidacy is in more trouble than Sarkozy's, as she -- so far
-- continues to fail to convince a significant portion of
left-leaning voters that she has what it takes to be
president of France. End Summary.


GRAIN OF TRUTH IN CHIRAC'S EXAGGERATION
--------------

2. (C) Notwithstanding Chirac's all-four-tied exaggeration
for comic effect, current polls of voter intentions do
reflect a trend towards convergence in the poll numbers of
the "big four" -- Interior Minister and President of the
Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party Nicolas Sarkozy,
Poitou-Charentes region president and Socialist Party (PS)
nominee Segolene Royal, president of the centrist Union for
French Democracy (UDF) party Francois Bayrou, and the leader
of the extremist, right-wing National Front (FN) Jean-Marie
Le Pen. (The scrutiny given to all presidential remarks
prompted comments that Chirac was not entirely joking -- he
was also expressing the wish that Sarkozy do worse than
Chirac did in the first-round of the 2002 election and that
Le Pen, with Chirac this time not in the race, do better.)


3. (C) As the April 22 first-round vote draws nearer, the
trend in all polls has been that the first-round voter
intentions of Sarkozy and Royal have been heading downwards
-- from the 30 to 35 percent range to the 25 to 30 percent
range, as the first-round voter intentions of Bayrou and Le
Pen have trended upwards, slightly in the case of Le Pen and
markedly so in the case of Bayrou. For example, in the
well-respected, consistently conducted polling of the IPSOS
opinion research firm, since January, the twenty point spread
that separated, the leader, Sarkozy, from Bayrou (with Royal
in-between) narrowed to a spread of under five points, with
Le Pen moving slightly upwards to within the 10 to 15 percent
range. Specifically, in IPSOS' March 14 iteration of its
poll of first-round voter intentions, Sarkozy led with 28
percent, followed by Royal with 25 percent, with Bayrou on
Royal's heels at 24 percent, and Le Pen trailing at 13
percent.

CONVERSION TO "BAYROUMANIA" CONTINUING
--------------

4. (C) Bruno Erhard, Bayrou's principal assistant for
international affairs, promised PolOff on March 14 that,
"Polls to be released over the weekend will show us ahead of
Royal." This may well turn out to be true, as Bayrou and
"Bayroumania" continue to dominate the front-pages of dailies
and the covers of news weeklies, even though one poll
released March 15 (by the CSA polling firm) shows Bayrou's
first round voter intentions falling slightly (to 21 percent)
and Sarkozy and Royal's rising slightly (to 27 and 26
percent, respectively).


5. (C) However his destiny may play out during coming weeks,

PARIS 00001038 002 OF 003


Bayrou -- the newest anti-establishment alternative on the
political scene -- has clearly tapped into the deep
dissatisfaction among the French with the country's political
class, its left/right partisanship and the lack of results
from past governments of both left and right. Bayrou's
campaign appearances have been drawing enthusiastic, overflow
crowds, far beyond what the conventional wisdom expected for
the UDF, given its progressive marginalization by the UMP
since 2002. One example from opinion polling that attests to
Bayrou's new-found credibility as a presidential contender is
that, for the first time in the ten-year history of this
monthly poll, Bayrou in March 2007 comes out at the top of
the IPSOS firm's "Presidential potential" survey.

UMP AND PS UNSURE HOW TO COUNTER BAYROU
--------------

6. (C) Both the Sarkozy and Royal campaigns remain hesitant
to tackle Bayrou head-on, lest this make him their principal
competitor and boost his standing in the eyes of a restive
electorate as a credible challenger of the Paris-based
establishment, the media, and the "left/right system."
Indications from both the Royal and Sarkozy campaigns are
that both organizations are hoping mightily that the current
infatuation of voters with Bayrou will pass as quickly as it
came. To support their wishful thinking, strategists from
both camps point to the way opinion surveys show that those
who say they are going to vote for Bayrou are "uncertain of
their choice" by margins approaching double that of those who
say they plan to vote for Sarkozy or Royal.


7. (C) The sense that their electorate is firming up and
will hold through both rounds of the upcoming election is
particularly marked in the Sarkozy camp. As Culture Minister
(and Sarkozy supporter) Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres told the
Ambassador over lunch on March 14, "Our base is strongly
anchored; judging from enthusiasm at campaign events and the
results of internal polling, we sense that support for
Sarkozy is solidifying and expanding, and we have no doubt
that we're going to be in the second round -- we just don't
know against whom."


8. (C) Donnedieu de Vabres added, "So I can tell you for
sure that Segolene Royal will not be President of France."
Donnedieu de Vabres believes (a conviction shared by UMP
Secretary General Pierre Mehaignerie (ref)),as current

SIPDIS
polling results and the conventional wisdom of the political
commentariat also suggest, that Sarkozy would face a much
more difficult challenge from Bayrou than from Royal in a
second-round showdown. In the latest IPSOS poll, Sarkozy
would beat Royal if the "second round were held next Sunday"
by a margin of 53 to 47 percent. The assumption among most
analysts, borne out by current polling results, is that in a
Sarkozy-Bayrou second round, Bayrou would benefit from a
ground swell of "Stop Sarkozy" sentiment, taking all the
votes of the left and enough in the center to win handily.


9. (C) So far, both PS and UMP spokespersons have limited
their criticisms of Bayrou to pointing out the difficulties
Bayrou would face putting together a parliamentary coalition
that could govern effectively. Commentators on talk shows
and in the press claim that they detect that this theme is
"sinking in" with the public, and raising questions about the
realism of Bayrou's proposed "union of both left and right."


10. (C) Many in the PS are facing up to growing indications
that, so far, Royal's candidacy is not succeeding in
inspiring confidence among many who would otherwise be
"naturally" rallying to her as the candidate of the
center-left. Royal has not clearly established, across the
board among the left-leaning electorate, that she has what it
takes to be the President. The widely shared consensus among
political observers is that unless Royal begins now to turn
the tide of skepticism on the left about her overall
competence for the presidency, she will be certainly beaten
by Sarkozy, if she is not eliminated by Bayrou first.


11. (C) Royal herself, is reportedly serenely indifferent to
the panic running through her party at the prospect that her
candidacy may, right now, be teetering into an unstoppable
downward slide. Roland Cayrol, the head of the CSA polling
firm, at a meeting March 12 told PolOff the following story:
"My son sees Segolene every day. He's in charge of making
the videos that appear on her website. He tells me that he
has never seen someone so imperturbably self-confident. He

PARIS 00001038 003 OF 003


says, 'It's as if she's carried by a sense of her own
destiny.'" COMMENT: Coming weeks will make starkly clear if
Royal's self-confidence is delusional, or if the force of the
political cunning and exquisite sense of timing that took her
from nowhere to contender are still with her. END COMMENT.)
Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

STAPLETON