WEEKLY MEDIA WRAP-UP: SOMALIA, THE ETHIOPIAN OFFENSIVE;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000001

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SUBJECT: WEEKLY MEDIA WRAP-UP: SOMALIA, THE ETHIOPIAN OFFENSIVE;
DEATH SENTENCE FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN; MIDDLE EAST A "WASTED" YEAR; IRAN
CHALLENGES INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. DECEMBER 29, 2006.


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Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly.

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia, conducted with
alleged "tacit" or "explicit" U.S. support dominated the
international news in France this week. The French press denounced
the pending execution of Saddam Hussein and complained that he is
being put to death before being tried for the Anfal killings of
Kurds. Two opinion pieces summarized the situation in the Middle
East at the close of 2006 in dailies of record right-of-center Le
Figaro and left-of-center Le Monde. Both argued that the standstill
in two-state negotiations was due to a "crisis of leadership" in
Israel as well as among the Palestinians. On December 26,
left-of-center Le Monde quoting Iranian president Ahmadinejad who
insisted that "Iran is a nuclear country," concluded that "Teheran
is sticking to its guns and will not abandon its nuclear program."
End Summary.

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SOMALIA, THE ETHIPOIAN OFFENSIVE
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2. (U) The editorial by Pierre Haski in left-wing Liberation
December 26, entitled "The Decline," noted that there were "two ways
of analyzing the war that has broken out between Somalia and
Ethiopia. One is ideological, with a new front open in the war on
terrorism and American support for a Christian Ethiopia to stop the
rise of a new Afghanistan [in Somalia], a possible haven for al
Qaida and international terrorism... The other is more realistic.
Ethiopia, classed 170th out of 177 countries in terms of development
by the UN, is waging a war against another country, the state of
decline of which makes it irrelevant statistically for the UN...
Somalia is emblematic of a failed state... This war will do nothing
more than further accentuate the suffering and poverty in Somalia...
and points to the failure of the international efforts of the
1990s."


3. (U) On December 27 in right-of-center Le Figaro, Arnaud de la
Grange called Somalia an "ideal haven for al Qaida." La Grange
noted that "Recently a French intelligence source expressed concern
over the institutionalized chaos in Somalia... For Washington it is
clear that al Qaida is already well-rooted in Somalia... But EU
intelligence sources say that the situation is not so clear cut,
even if they agree that the threat is very real... In order to
carry out the fight against terrorism in the region, the Americans
set up camp in Djibouti after 9/11. But with the exception of a few
CIA forays, amateurish at that, Somalia remains marginalized in
terms of its threat potential according to Washington; just like
Afghanistan after the Cold War."


4. (U) Left-of-center Le Monde reported Washington's alleged "tacit"
support for Ethiopia's military intervention. "When General
Abizaid... was in Addis-Ababa at the beginning of the month, he
warned government leaders of the humanitarian consequences of an
invasion in Somalia, but did not call for the withdrawal of
Ethiopian troops... Was the U.S. wise to choose sides so clearly?
Did it not over-evaluate the threat posed by the Islamic
tribunals... In any event, many experts are denouncing Washington's
support for the Ethiopian regime in the name of the war on
terrorism."


5. (U) By December 29, the front page of Le Monde was announcing the
retreat of the Islamist combatants from Mogadishu and the unsigned
editorial noted that "In just one week the Ethiopian army and the
Somali government forces have turned the situation around... From
the international standpoint, the U.S., which has always supported
Ethiopia, sees the defeat of the Somali Islamists as secondary with
regard to Afghanistan or Iraq, but nonetheless significant in the
war on terrorism... It is too soon to say what lessons can be drawn
form the fighting in Somalia, but without a determined international
effort, war will become the norm, and peace ephemeral."

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DEATH SENTENCE FOR SADDAM HUSSEIN
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6. (U) Right-of-center Le Figaro's December 27 headline announced
that "Saddam Hussein will be executed." Le Figaro reported that
"the fallen Iraqi dictator is expected to be hanged within thirty
days... His execution will in effect mean that he cannot be tried
in person for the military campaign in Anfal in 1987 and 1988 in the
northern part of Kurdistan. It was during this raid that a chemical
attack on Halabja killed some 5000 people, three quarters of whom

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were women and children... Many members of the Kurdish community,
including Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, have said that Saddam
Hussein should not be executed before the Anfal trial but the Shiite
government, elected during the last round of voting, intends to
eliminate Saddam Hussein as quickly as possible in order to
establish its power made shaky by the civil war... Saddam Hussein
will therefore not be able to explain his actions at the time of the
Anfal raid, when Iraq was fighting Iran, spurred on by Europe and
the U.S."


7. (U) The December 28 unsigned editorial in left-of-center Le Monde
claimed that "the sentence has been rejected by the United Nations
and all of the Human Rights organizations... History will remember
that the toppling, the arrest as well as the trial of the former
tyrant and his acolytes were from beginning to end an American
affair. Yet there is no doubt that the sentence pronounced by the
Iraqi court is a reflection of the desire of a vast majority of the
Iraqi people... It is the victors' justice that has won out... and
many will bemoan the fact that Saddam Hussein will be hanged for one
of his lesser crimes."

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MIDDLE EAST -- "A WASTED YEAR"
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8. (U) On December 28, Pierre Rousselin's editorial in
right-of-center Le Figaro lamented that "A little over a year ago,
Ariel Sharon was congratulating himself for the successful
withdrawal from Gaza and had let it be known that Israel could do
the same in the West Bank. The Palestinians, good students of
George W. Bush's 'democratization' plans for the Middle East, were
on the verge of voting for the first post-Arafat parliament. With
the benefit of hindsight over the last twelve months, one can see
the distressing state that the Israeli-Palestinian situation is in.
Gaza is on the brink of civil war... and Ehoud Olmert, with no
coherent policy, is weakened by his failed war against Hezbollah.
In the backdrop, chaos reigns in Iraq, the Lebanese crisis worsens
and Iran is rising in power. American diplomacy alone has the means
necessary to act and yet appears to have thrown in the towel,
leaving the Israelis and the Palestinians in a face-off."


9. (U) A December 28 op-ed by Gilles Paris in left-of-center Le
Monde discussed the "crisis" of Palestian leadership. "The death of
Yasser Arafat left a void that neither his successor nor his
Islamist detractors have been able to fill... Each statement on the
part of the Americans in support of Mahmoud Abbas serves to fuel
criticism that he is at best Washington's puppet and at worst a
collaborator. Indeed this support has no concrete manifestation...
and the situation in the Middle East has never been worse... As for
Hamas, it is boycotted by the U.S. and the EU, and regarded with
circumspection by the major Arab countries that fear the same rise
to power of the Islamists in their own countries. Hamas cannot
count on those who today appear to be its best allies... they are
merely one more card in Iran's game in the Middle East."

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IRAN CHALLENGES THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
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10. (SBU) The December 25 headline in right-of-center Le Figaro
stated that "Iran is Defying the UN." Pierre Rousselin's claimed
that "Teheran's reaction to the UN Resolution is more significant
than the Resolution itself... and this time Iran is not just defying
the U.S. or the West, but the entire international community...
While the U.S. is rethinking its strategy in Iraq, the regime of the
Mullahs feels that it is in a position of force... But Iran must
make a fundamental choice. If it decides to bypass the
[Non-Proliferation Treaty] it would be making a dire mistake. It
would call into question the strategic balance all the way to Europe
or Asia. The passing of Resolution 1737 shows that neither Russia
nor China, no more so than the West, can accept this."
HOFMANN