Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07PANAMA1898
2007-12-20 23:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Panama
Cable title:  

POTENTIAL SEISMIC RISKS MAY THREATEN PANAMA CANAL

Tags:  SENV AMER EWWT ELTN TPHY PM 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0009
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #1898/01 3542300
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 202300Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1579
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHSJ/AMEMBASSY SAN JOSE 1922
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RULSDMK/DEPT OF TRANSPORTATION WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEFHLC/HOMELAND SECURITY CENTER WASHINGTON DC
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUENAAA/SECNAV WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001898 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR STATE WHA/CEN - TELLO
FOR EMB SAN JOSE: OFDA - T. CALLAGHAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: SENV AMER EWWT ELTN TPHY PM
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL SEISMIC RISKS MAY THREATEN PANAMA CANAL
AND CENTRAL PANAMA

Classified By: Ambassador William A. Eaton by reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001898

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR STATE WHA/CEN - TELLO
FOR EMB SAN JOSE: OFDA - T. CALLAGHAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: SENV AMER EWWT ELTN TPHY PM
SUBJECT: POTENTIAL SEISMIC RISKS MAY THREATEN PANAMA CANAL
AND CENTRAL PANAMA

Classified By: Ambassador William A. Eaton by reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The historical view that Panama does not
experience earthquakes was wrong, geological experts employed
by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) told EmbOffs. These
experts said emerging geologic research suggests that Central
Panama -- including the Panama Canal and Panama City area --
may face much greater seismic risks than previously believed.
They believed a major earthquake (magnitude 7.0 or greater)
could hit the Panama Canal and Panama City area at any time.
They fear this could cause a failure of the existing canal
and significant destruction in Panama City. They said the
ACP worked to address the findings responsibly. The
information could be made public in January 2008 to bidders
on the design/build contract for the canal's new set of locks
and water recycling basins. This new information could
significantly increase the project's costs. If true, the new
seismic findings could affect U.S. interests regarding safety
of American citizens in Panama, disaster relief planning, and
our economic and security interests in the canal. Disclosure
of significant seismic risks in Central Panama could deal a
huge blow to the two main motors of Panama's economy: the
Panama Canal and the country's boming real
estate/construction sector. This disclosure could also
undermine the ACP's and GOP's credibility and vindicate those
who feared cost overruns on the canal expansion project.
Post requests that the U.S. Geological Survey engage with
these experts to assess the findings and advise Post along
with other USG agencies as to the risks involved. END
SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
Central Panama's Seismic Risks May Be Worse than Believed
-------------- --------------


2. (C) On November 21, Jonathan Harris, a geologist and Vice
President of CH2M Hill, the canal expansion project's project
manager, told Econoffs that emerging geologic research
suggested that Central Panama faced much greater seismic

risks than previously believed. He said the area is
vulnerable to earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater and up
to 8.0. He said recent geological studies by
California-based Earth Consultants International, Inc. (ECI)
confirmed the existence of various active earthquake faults
within the Panama Canal area. Harris noted that CH2M Hill
prohibits any of its employees working in Panama from living
above the first floor in any building.


3. (C) On December 14, Eldon Gath, President of ECI,
continued Harris' revelations during a briefing for the
Ambassador and select Country Team members on ECI,s work on
Panama,s geology and the associated earthquake risks. He
said that the historical view that Central Panama does not
experience earthquakes was wrong. Gath explained that there
were three major faults in the Panama Canal area: the Gatun
Fault that ran within five kilometers of the Gatun Dam near
the Atlantic entrance to the canal, the Pedro Miguel Fault
that ran north-south between the Pedro Miguel and Miraflores
locks, and the Limon Fault that ran through central Panama.
Gath was perplexed that prior geological studies had missed
what he maintains was &obvious8 evidence of active faults.
He added that a fourth fault, which was previously believed
to be inactive, actually shows evidence of being active.
This fault traverses the location of the new set of Pacific
entrance locks and is just west of Miraflores Locks.


4. (C) Gath said the most recent geological evidence puts
Central Panama at the same level of earthquake risk as San
Francisco, California. He also said that the Panama City
area has experienced three earthquakes of a magnitude 7.0 or
greater in the last 300 hundred years. An 1882 earthquake in
Central Panama destroyed buildings in Panama City and sank
the Panama railroad bed by approximately ten feet. Harris
and Gath pointed to the likelihood of earthquake of magnitude
7.0 or greater in the canal area within the next 50 years.
Gath added that the fault had been accumulating stress for
almost 400 years at a rate of seven millimeters per year, and
is now at approximately 2.8 meters of accumulated stress. He
said he believes that the 1621 earthquake which destroyed
Panama City occurred when the fault had an accumulated stress
of three meters. He maintained that three meters of
accumulated stress was the maximum stress the fault could
withstand before a major earthquake would occur.

--------------
Potential Impacts
--------------


5. (C) &The potential impact on Panama City will be
catastrophic when the earthquake hits,8 said Gath, adding
that when the stress in the Pedro Miguel fault reached its
maximum, the resultant earthquake could destroy the lock
doors at the Miraflores and Pedro Miguel Locks, cause the
Miraflores Dam to fail, and result in landslides along the
Culebra Cut. Harris and Gath both said Panama City,s
high-rises could topple as a result of construction that was
not designed for large earthquakes. Gath also said small
houses in poor communities between Panama City and Colon,
typically built on weak pillars, could collapse.


6. (C) Gath doubted that the aging, poorly maintained
Bridge of the Americas spanning the Pacific entrance of the
Panama Canal would survive such a quake. But he was
uncertain whether the relatively new Centenary Bridge would
also collapse. He maintained that the Bridge of the Americas
was not designed to withstand any significant ground
movement. Gath added that ACP and private sector engineers
had said they did not know why the bridge has not already
collapsed given its poor, rusted condition. In 2006,
newspapers reported that the Bridge of the Americas was in
need of 30 critical repairs. To date, virtually none of
those repairs are believed to have been made. Gath also said
that it was not inconceivable that an earthquake along the
Pedro Miguel Fault could trigger an earthquake along the
Gatun Fault, thereby damaging Gatun Dam.

--------------
ACP Doing the Right Thing . . . So Far
--------------


7. (C) Gath said the existing locks were not designed to
withstand any meaningful ground movement. He referred to the
Canal's existing dams as massive but brittle when it came to
surviving an earthquake. He said it was possible to
reinforce the three existing dams and 50 earthen dams
surrounding Lake Gatun to withstand a serious earthquake.
The issue would be cost and the availability of materials,
principally clay to reinforce the dams. However, he doubted
the existing lock doors and chambers could be so reinforced.


8. (C) Any attempt to repair the locks after an earthquake
could be hindered by the destruction of most of Panama
City,s infrastructure and buildings. As of now, the GOP
would not likely have the requisite personnel, material, and
equipment to attend adequately and simultaneously to the
needs of its citizenry and the repair of the canal.


9. (C) Gath said that the ACP,s current design for new
locks (with rolling gates) was problematic and potentially
unfeasible in light of the potential earthquake risk. He
said the rolling gates concept was much more difficult to
engineer to withstand an earthquake than the swinging lock
doors currently used. According to Gath, ACP engineers were
re-examining the feasibility of the proposed new lock design.



10. (C) Harris and Gath separately speculated that
designing the new locks to withstand a 7.0-7.2 magnitude
earthquake could double the cost of constructing the new
locks and water recycling basins. As reported septel, the
ACP,s current budgeted amount for the new locks of $3.726
billion was already in question owing to the U.S. dollar's
slide and local inflation rates that were now running more
than three times the annual rate that the ACP had factored
into its original cost estimates. In prior conversations
with bankers at New York-based investment banks, EconOff was
told that the ACP could easily service up to $7 to $8 billion
of long term debt. The ACP currently has no long term debt.


11. (C) Gath stressed that the ACP had thus far handled the
emerging &bad news8 about the faults in a highly
professional and responsible manner. He pointed out that,
unlike some of his former clients in the U.S. that had
ignored inconvenient geologic reports, the ACP had been
exemplary in accepting the scientists, conclusions and
working to analyze the impact of the information. However,
the ACP - fully occupied with major licitation processes -
has yet to complete threat analyses, damage assessment
surveys, or similar reports or studies. Gath reported that
upon hearing of ECI,s findings, ACP Administrator Alberto
Aleman Zubieta immediately advised President Martin Torrijos
and the ACP,s Advisory Board. Gath added that Aleman said
he was more concerned about the earthquake damage to Panama
City than the Panama Canal, quoting Aleman as saying, &The
canal is a structure. The city is people.8

--------------
Origins of the New Geologic Conclusions
--------------


12. (C) Gath posited that the lack of major earthquakes in
Panama since 1879 has fostered the mistaken belief that
Central Panama was not seismically active. In 2005, ECI
finalized a report for the ACP that showed the Gatun Fault
was active. The ACP then hired a new geological firm to
review the work of ECI that not only confirmed the work but
said the risk was greater. On September 24-29, the Southern
California Section of the American Environmentl and
Engineering Geology (AEG) held a symposium on the earthquake
risks and seismic activity in Panama. ACP officials attended
the symposium. Abstracts of the presentations can be found
at www.aegs.com/2007-Meeting/pdf/abstracts.pdf.


13. (C) As a result of ECI,s initial work and the
subsequent reviews, the ACP hired three seismic experts and
invited ECI, an expert from the Western region of the U.S.
Geologic Survey (USGS),and other experts to Panama during
the week of December 10 to perform field work and put these
emerging findings to further peer review. Gath said that at
the end of the week, all participants agreed on the
seriousness of the earthquake risks in Central Panama. He
said the only point of debate concerned uncertainties
regarding the exact dates of the prior earthquakes. The
geologists, report was scheduled to be finalized on December
16 and delivered to the ACP on December 17.


14. (C) Gath expects the ACP would deliver the report and
seismic studies in January 2008 to the bidders on the new
design/build contract in order for them to prepare adequately
their bids. He said ECI would publish the results of its
findings in scientific journals and other geologists would do
the same. Gath said he had already fended off inquiries from
&Science8 magazine and a science reporter for an Orange
County, California newspaper regarding &new findings on
Panama,s seismic hazards.8 He said that the ACP knew of
these intentions to publish and has said the ACP had no
problems with the geologists publishing their findings.


15. (C) Gath said that Bechtel International, which leads
the sole U.S.-led consortia biding on the design/ build
contract, was present at the September AEG symposium sessions
on the earthquake risks to Panama and the Panama Canal. No
other consortia members were present at the conference.
Harris told EconOffs that he was concerned that some
consortia might choose not to bid after they fully analyze
the earthquake risks due to the cost, risk, and engineering
challenges posed.

--------------
Potential Implications for U.S. Interests
--------------


16. (C) The emerging scientific understanding of Central
Panama,s seismic risks potentially has both direct and
indirect effects on U.S. interests, namely:

-- the safety and security of USG personnel at post and the
growing number of U.S. citizens who reside and travel in
Panama;

-- inevitable calls for U.S. support for disaster relief,
search and rescue assistance, and possibly
recovery/reconstruction, both at the Canal and elsewhere in
affected areas;

-- potential impacts to U.S. security and commercial
interests resulting from any long-term stoppage or extensive
disruptions in transits through the Panama Canal, as about
two-thirds of the Canal's 14,000 annual transits are destined
to/from the U.S.; and,

-- potential recriminations directed at the U.S. for alleged
shortcomings in prior geologic research and/or Panama Canal
design/construction.

--------------
Action Request for USGS
--------------


17. (SBU) Post requests that the U.S. Geological Survey
engage with these experts to assess the findings, and advise
Post along with other USG agencies, as to the risks involved.
Post will follow up accordingly with key GOP and ACP
officials to ensure that any conclusive new findings on
seismic risks are divulged publicly and responsibly. Post
will also take stock of its earthquake preparedness and, in
coordination with the GOP, ensure that the American citizens
in Panama will be duly informed of Panama's seismic risks.

EATON