NEW BY-ELECTIONS MAY SIGNAL CONSERVATIVE CONFIDENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 002308

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2012
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: NEW BY-ELECTIONS MAY SIGNAL CONSERVATIVE CONFIDENCE


Classified By: PolMinCouns Scott Bellard, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (U) Prime Minister Stephen Harper on December 21 set the
date of March 17 for by-elections in the Commons' ridings in
Toronto Centre (Ontario),Willowdale (Ontario),Vancouver
Quadra (British Columbia),and Desnethe-Missnippi-Churchill
River (Saskatchewan). Liberals (including three former
Cabinet ministers) had held all four seats before their
resignations. The Prime Minister was obliged to set dates
for the two Ontario seats by the end of the year (within six
months from the vacancies) but could have waited on the other
two ridings, and could have set virtually any date(s) in the
new year for the by-elections.


2. (C) According to Liberal Party National Director Greg
Fergus, the Liberal Party mechanism is now stronger than in
years, both in terms of morale and finances, contrary to
numerous accounts of serious dissatisfaction within the
caucus about the current policy of "whipped abstentions" on
confidence votes and of a critical lack of funding. While
not predicting early elections, he pledged that the Liberals
would be in great shape both for the by-elections and for
eventual federal elections. He described the average Liberal
Party member as "happy." The latest Canadian Press
Harris-Decima poll put support for the Liberals at 32 pct (up
four points, and with support in Ontario as high as 41 pct),
with the Conservatives falling six points to only 30 pct -- a
statistical dead heat.


3. (U) In a typically blunt message, PM Harper warned in a
December 20 press interview that Canada may face tougher
economic times ahead, in part due to the U.S. economy and in
part to the costs of new environmental programs in Canada.
(Polls consistently show the environment as the single most
important issue to voters.) He brushed off criticism of
being too controlling by noting that "I'd rather have the
criticism of leading from strength than leading from
weakness."


4. (C) Comment: Harper is nothing if not a master
strategist. The March date may indicate that the
Conservatives now believe their government is not apt to fall
early in the new Parliamentary session beginning on January

28. It probably also reflects their calculation that the
by-elections will force the Liberals to acquiesce in the
upcoming budget vote (which Liberal leader Stephane Dion has
repeatedly suggested in recent days might be a confidence
issue that could bring down the government). The Liberals
are fairly confident of success again in all four ridings,
and will hope for some additional "bounce" from these likely
electoral gains before eventual elections. The Liberals are
also keen to have their new Foreign Affairs Critic Bob Rae
(running in Toronto Centre) actually in the Commons, although
he will miss the expected Parliamentary debate on the
recommendations of the Manley Panel and the way forward on
Afghanistan. In the meantime, the Harper government will do
everything in its power to make progress on its legislative
agenda in 2008 (septel).

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