Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07OSLO160
2007-02-16 16:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Oslo
Cable title:  

SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS' SUDAN CONTACT GROUP MEETING

Tags:  PREL EAID KPKO NO 
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VZCZCXRO2151
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHNY #0160/01 0471613
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161613Z FEB 07 ZDK CTG NUMEROUS SVCS
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5216
INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 0064
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 0290
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY 0027
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1415
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI PRIORITY 0224
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0228
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000160 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID KPKO NO
SUBJECT: SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS' SUDAN CONTACT GROUP MEETING


Classified By: DCM Kevin M. Johnson for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000160

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2017
TAGS: PREL EAID KPKO NO
SUBJECT: SPECIAL ENVOY NATSIOS' SUDAN CONTACT GROUP MEETING


Classified By: DCM Kevin M. Johnson for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On February 9, Special Envoy Andrew
Natsios joined the Sudan Contact Group meeting in Oslo to
assess the state of play in Sudan. Although implementation
of the CPA has been stalled, all parties stressed the need
to maintain a unified Sudan and to encourage an IGAD summit
to set benchmarks to measure implementation progress. On
Darfur, parties agreed that patience was exhausted and that
the time had come for stronger measures. The parties
(including the EU) expressed the view that it would be useful
to meet soon to discuss stronger unified measures. In a
follow-on meeting with Norwegians, both sides agreed that the
Contact Group needs to find a way to target Bashir and his
close circle without causing a reaction that would further
exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Darfur.
Norwegians favor working with Eritrea on a planned
all-Darfur-parties meeting in Libya. END SUMMARY

Vraalsen on the CPA and Abyei
--------------


2. (SBU) Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) Chair
Tom Vraalsen noted some progress in establishing CPA
structures such as the Government of National Unity.
However, substantive political problems persist, all
essentially involving either oil or the militias. Although
the AEC has repeatedly debated these issues, there has been
no progress. Vraalsen pleaded for the highest levels in
capitals to reengage on the CPA. He explained a Kenyan
suggestion to convene an IGAD Summit on the CPA and urged the
group to support this plan. He thought the Summit should
set benchmarks and ask the AEC to report to IGAD on those
areas.


3. (SBU) Growing concern with attacks on the AEC was raised,
particularly the statements that the AEC is overstepping its
mandate on Abyei. Vraalsen pointed out that Abyei is clearly
a flashpoint that needs an urgent resolution. The EU
representative Jean-Christophe Belliard suggested that
perhaps a Security Council statement on Abyei would help.


4. (SBU) Belliard then urged the group to be unambiguous in
supporting the unity of Sudan. The UK representative Jessica

Irvine agreed that stronger messages on the unity of Sudan by
the international community were important. She suggested
taking a longer-term perspective on a deal that would cover
oil revenue sharing so as to promote the concept of unity.
The group noted the conflicting interests of the parties with
regard to unity. Belliard also noted that the business
community is working towards deals that reflect two Sudans.
He urged the group to press countries with large business
interests to support unity. Some NGOs operating in the
south have been promoting separatism and members were urged
to discourage their NGOs from taking this approach.


5. (SBU) The group concluded that the international
community should frame the issue so the parties see it in
their own best interest to have a unified Sudan. This could
be done if development aid were seen to flow to the south.
It also might be done by franker discussions with the SPLM to
outline the likely bloody consequences of an attempt to
separate.

In conclusion, the group agreed to:
--stress the unity of Sudan;
--support the IGAD Summit proposal; and
--support the AEC through more pressure from capitals.

In addition, three Contact Group members agreed to provide
weekly updates on three key areas: UK (security),the
Netherlands (Abyei),and Canada (elections).

Sudan Consortium and Debt Relief
--------------


6. (SBU) Netherlands representative Huub Buise reported that
reconstruction is slow but there is some movement. He urged
monitoring of the UN-WB agreement in the Sudan Consortium.
Because of the likely mid-term implementation of the UN-WB
programs (due to limited government capacity in the south)
quick-impact directly funded programs would be useful. UK
representative Jessica Irvine raised the question of debt
relief for Khartoum. All parties agreed this would be
premature.

OSLO 00000160 002 OF 003



Darfur Humanitarian Situation and the LRA
--------------


7. (SBU) UNMIS Mark Bowden described a deteriorating
security situation in Darfur where rebel groups are becoming
more fractured. Militias are taking bolder actions,
attacking IDPs and holding entire villages ransom. Attacks
on NGO staff and arrest of workers has created a new climate
of fear among aid personnel. Attacks appear to be
orchestrated by Khartoum to undermine trust in UN and NGOs
ability to provide protection and relief. Bowden confirmed
estimates of 5,500 active LRA members who are splitting into
3 groups operating in CAR, Chad, and DRC. Lack of political
will in the DRC and instability in south Sudan mean these
actions will likely continue.

U.S. View on Darfur: Time for Tougher Measures
-------------- -


8. (SBU) Special Envoy Natsios argued that recent actions by
the Sudanese government, which included public and private
discouraging of support of phase two of the UN Darfur plan,
conducting an arms buildup in Darfur, preventing a meeting of
non-signatories, and continued obstruction of humanitarian
delivery in Darfur, indicated that the time has probably come
for a new approach. Recent attacks on NGOs operating in
Darfur show that a line had been crossed and that the Contact
Group needs to come up with strong measures in the form of
specific tests for Khartoum to see how they will respond.
United actions will be seen by Khartoum as a sign that the
international community is serious and not issuing empty
threats. Natsios informed the group that the U.S. is moving
toward Plan B and wants to work with the contact group to
determine what this plan should include.

EU Also Interested in Tougher Measures
--------------


9. (SBU) EU representative Jean-Christophe Belliard
expressed interest in stronger measures and a Contact Group
meeting to discuss what these measures may be. In bringing
parties back to negotiations, he suggested that Eritrea may
have a role. UK representative Jessica Irvin suggested
restarting the political process given that rebel groups seem
too fragmented to work with the international community. A
key factor would be an operational cease fire.


10. (SBU) UN Envoy Eliasson stressed that the international
community must be unified in its approach and that Khartoum
must be convinced that working with the international
community is in its self-interest. Non-signatories must be
brought on board and accept an AU role in any deal. Also,
hostilities must cease. International consensus on these
issues will show Khartoum that there is political will to act
on the problem. The international community also needs to
figure out how to bring Libya, Eritrea, and Chad into the
existing process.

Norwegian Support for Stronger Measures
--------------


11. (C) In a private meeting with Raymond Johansen and his
staff after the day's Contact Meeting on Sudan, Natsios
reviewed the possible need for stronger measures. In
addition to carrots and sticks, the Norwegians suggested that
benchmarks are needed to measure progress. Both sides agreed
it would be useful to have a full briefing on tougher
measures and that the Contact Group needs to find the right
balance to keep Khartoum from reacting against displaced
persons camps. Any sanctions must affect Bashir and his
close circle directly or he will not respond. Norwegian
State Secretary Raymond Johansen said the GON needs a clear
command structure from the UN, not the AU, in order for
Norway to provide heavy package support. The priority is
Darfur and the battalion is ready to go but only if the
helmets are blue.

An Eritrean Role, A Tripoli Meeting
--------------


12. (C) Johansen argued that it was important to bring
Eritrea into the process because of their role in Somalia and
Sudan. Johansen characterized the proposed
Eritrean-brokered, Tripoli-hosted Darfur Parties meeting as

OSLO 00000160 003 OF 003


"the only show in town" and said the Eritreans want the rest
of the international community involved. Both sides agreed
that a new AU representative would be required due to the
non-signatories distrust of Salim Salim. A compromise
position must be found short of a CPA for Darfur that
Khartoum will support. U.S. officials suggested that greater
coordination with the AU and the UN was needed on this and
that the Contract Group needs to consider what we want the
rebels to do and what we are building them up for.


13. (U) Special Envoy Andrew Natsios' staff cleared on this
message.
WHITNEY