CANDIDATES COURTING KEY OVERSEAS VOTE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000952

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: CANDIDATES COURTING KEY OVERSEAS VOTE



1. (SBU) Summary: Over a half-million Cypriots reside abroad, with
300,000 in the London area alone. While eligible voters represent
just a fraction of the total overseas population, Cyprus's
presidential candidates will devote great time and effort to winning
the diaspora vote, which many experts consider crucial in 2008. The
contenders will fly in voters from across the globe for the February
contest, at great cost to parties and taxpayers. Opposition forces
decry such waste. Existing legislation allows absentee voting, they
claim, but the government abhors the concept, since most overseas
Cypriots would back President Papadopoulos's challengers. End
Summary.

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Wastefulness or manipulation?
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2. (U) As in all previous elections, political parties will spend a
large chunk of their budgets to offer free or subsidized air tickets
to Cypriots temporarily residing abroad, allowing them to return for
next February's presidential elections. Not all overseas Cypriots
can vote; the law demands that citizens be permanent residents on
the island for at least six months before they can register,
effectively precluding those with overseas domicile or full-time
employment. Voting is mandatory for all eligible Cypriots, and
those temporarily abroad must come home to fulfill this obligation.


3. (U) The parties supporting incumbent President Tassos
Papadopoulos -- the Democratic Party (DIKO) and Socialist EDEK --
announced in November their intention to transport their voters free
of charge. AKEL and DISY, Cyprus's largest parties and the primary
backers of challengers Dimitris Christofias and Ioannis Kasoulides,
respectively, will cover approximately two-thirds the cost of
airfare. According to DISY and AKEL officials, the three candidates
together will fly in approximately 13,000 voters, with the larger
parties bringing 5,000 each. A DISY insider told us recently that
some DISY supporters will take advantage of DIKO's free tickets,
since there is no way to verify the political affiliation of every
voter.


4. (U) The cost of this operation is estimated at 2-3 million
Cyprus Pounds ($5-7.5 million) and represents one-third of each
candidate's campaign budget. In addition, the parties, mainly their
youth wings, will devote considerable volunteer labor to the
venture. The largest operations will be organized in Greece, the UK
and the USA, the countries chosen by most Cypriots for their
studies. Other voters will hail from African and Arab Gulf
countries, other nations in Europe, and Australia.

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Critics Aplenty, But Changes A-few
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5. (SBU) Although the costly airlift earns considerable criticism
at home, political expediencies preserve the status quo. Opposition
DISY asserts that current Cypriot legislation permits absentee
balloting, a far cheaper option. DISY's call earlier this year for
the installation of voting stations in Cypriot diplomatic missions
won no support from the governing coalition, however, which then
included AKEL. While AKEL and EDEK support absentee voting in
theory, they cite practical difficulties in implementing it. Cyprus
does not have embassies in many nations, they note, meaning that
absentee balloting in overseas missions would be discriminatory.
Officials at the Ministry of Interior (MoI),responsible for
organizing Cypriot elections, make the same arguments.


6. (SBU) DISY officials assert that politics, not unfairness,
underpins the decision not to implement absentee voting.
Traditionally, DISY and AKEL have enjoyed strong support amongst
younger voters. In university elections, for example, the parties
typically garner 85 percent of votes cast, a tribute to their
well-run political machines. With students constituting the
majority of overseas Cypriots eligible voters, the big parties
likely would obtain a slightly lower -- but still considerable --
majority in the February presidential election. By barring absentee
voting in embassies and using his deep pockets to fly expats home,
DISY Spokesman Haris Georghiades told us, President Papadopoulos is
seeking balance in the overseas vote.


7. (U) In April 2007, DISY proposed a legislative amendment to
boost the numbers of young voters. The party sought automatic
registration at age 18 of all Cypriot citizens permanently residing
on the island. It met rejection at the hands of the government
coalition, however. Under the current regime, which requires
potential new voters to file an application with the MoI, 27,000
eligible youth remained unregistered as of late November.

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Comment:
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8. (SBU) Recent polls show the presidential race a statistical dead
heat, with the distance separating first- and third-place candidates
within the margin for error. In such a scenario, the overseas vote
-- around three percent of the electorate, and out of the reach of
pollsters -- assumes added significance. With DISY and AKEL the
likely beneficiaries of expanded suffrage in the form of absentee
ballots, incumbent Papadopoulos has reason to favor the current
arrangement. There is growing discontent among Cypriots over this
costly and outdated tradition, however. Further, increasing numbers
of temporary expats are unwilling to leave their jobs or studies for
over a week, regardless of who buys their tickets. While we predict
no changes to the system in the run-up to February, we would expect
the parties and the MoI to revisit absentee balloting sometime
thereafter.

SCHLICHER