Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NICOSIA898
2007-11-13 11:58:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Nicosia
Cable title:  

ANNAN PLAN STILL DOMINATING ELECTION CAMPAIGN

Tags:  PGOV PREL CY 
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Amy Marie Newcomb 01/22/2008 04:22:12 PM From DB/Inbox: ECO-POLShare

Cable 
Text: 
 
 
UNCLAS SENSITIVE NICOSIA 00898

SIPDIS
CXNICOSI:
 ACTION: DCM EXEC
 INFO: DAO RAO ECON POL

DISSEMINATION: EXEC
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: AMB:RSCHLICHER
DRAFTED: POL:AMYIALLOUROU
CLEARED: DCM:JZIMMERMAN; POL:GMACRIS

VZCZCNCI576
RR RUEHC RUEHZL RUCNDT RUEHBS
DE RUEHNC #0898/01 3171158
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131158Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8313
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1007
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000898 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: ANNAN PLAN STILL DOMINATING ELECTION CAMPAIGN


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000898

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: ANNAN PLAN STILL DOMINATING ELECTION CAMPAIGN



1. (SBU) Summary: Incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos's continuing lead
in the presidential race is forcing his opponents to attempt to
deconstruct the hero image that the President has forged with his
hard-line Cyprus Problem tactics. AKEL leader Dimitris Christofias,
for example, has abandoned his relatively moderate criticism of
Papadopoulos and instead unleashed an angry attack on his former
coalition partner, publicly disparaging the President's political
judgment and revealing their earlier policy disagreements. As
usual, the 2004 Annan Plan reunification effort has taken
center-stage, with Christofias accusing Papadopoulos of mishandling
UN-brokered preparatory talks in Switzerland, closing the doors to a
solution with his infamous April 2004 national address, and refusing
since to specify substantive settlement demands of the Greek Cypriot
side. The Papadopoulos camp retorts that AKEL had supported the
President's every move, however, and has neither room nor reason to
criticize. As a result of this backwards-looking debate, real
issues that affect Cypriots' future are receiving little attention
this campaign season. End Summary.

PAPADOPOULOS' RESILIENCE HEATS UP THE CAMPAIGN
-------------- -


2. (U) September and October have disappointed Papadopoulos's two
major opponents, who were confident that the President's summer
doldrums and then-declining popularity would carry into autumn. A
recent opinion poll commissioned by leading daily "Phileleftheros"
showed Papadopoulos increasing his lead to five points over
second-place Christofias and nearly nine over DISY-supported Ioannis
Kasoulides. Even more disturbing for the challengers, nearly half
of those sampled believe Papadopoulos will be re-elected, compared
to 35 percent in July. The same poll contained one optimistic note
for Christofias, however, giving him a small lead over the
President, were the two to face off in a run-off.


3. (SBU) Such numbers have forced the campaign teams and the
parties backing Christofias and Kasoulides to roll up their sleeves
and sharpen their claws. Unable to shift the debate to the future
and away from the Annan Plan, Christofias changed tack, deciding to
call into question Papadopoulos's handling of the Cyprus issue. He
has focused on the period prior to the submission of the last
version of the Annan Plan, which occurred on March 30, 2004.


REVISITING THE ANNAN PLAN TALKS
--------------


4. (U) Papadopoulos actually started the fight with an October 29
statement accusing his opponents of exhibiting poor political
judgment in the run-up to the 2004 referendum. It drew an angry
response from Christofias that re-opened public debate and dominated
the front pages for days. The AKEL candidate countered that
Papadopoulos himself had failed to negotiate changes to the Annan
draft beneficial to G/Cs. In the final stage of the negotiations in
Burgenstock, Christofias continued, Papadopoulos had ignored his
pleas to delineate the G/C "red lines." Instead of the concise
document the United Nations had sought from the sides, the lawyerly
Papadopoulos presented a 44-page opus that had angered all involved,
Christofias asserted. For three years thereafter the President
continued to refuse AKEL's requests that he present clear
negotiating positions to the UN.


5. (U) Christofias next charged that Papadopoulos should not have
consented to staging a referendum on a plan that he had considered
unacceptable. "If Papadopoulos was indeed the only leader with
sound political judgment and the courage to say 'no,' he should have
assumed his responsibility as a leader and refused to put to a
referendum a plan he considered unacceptable," he asserted.
Christofias recounted that AKEL's congress in April 2004 had
recommended postponing the referenda, a position the President
opposed.


6. (U) In a lengthy interview to opposition "Politis" on November 4
and 5, Christofias revealed many of the disagreements that AKEL had
kept under wraps in the past four-and-a-half years. From the
outset, he had encouraged Papadopoulos to forge closer relations
with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and other important
international leaders in order to advance national interests, but
the President had rejected his recommendations. Referring to
Papadopoulos's famous April 2004 speech calling on Greek Cypriots to
oppose the "partitionist" Annan Plan, Christofias implied that the
President's hyperbole had destroyed future prospects for a Cyprus
solution. Despite the complaints, however, Christofias insisted
that AKEL's 2003 decision to support Papadopoulos was not a mistake
at the time.


7. (U) Naturally, Papadopoulos defended his Cyprus Problem policies
and rejected Christofias's criticisms. The President recalled his
"secret" meetings with Turkish Cypriot politician Serdar Denktash,
in Christofias's presence, during which he had tried to push for
postponement of the referenda. Both Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot
leadership rejected his request, however. Papadopoulos also claimed
that, in Burgenstock, he had given the UN a two-page document with
the requested "red lines."

COMMENT
--------------


8. (SBU) The President's "defiant" stance against the international
community's "attempt to impose an unjust and unbalanced" solution
with the Annan Plan appeals to many Greek Cypriots across the
political spectrum. It has created a base of support that includes
not only the parties officially sponsoring Papadopoulos's candidacy,
but some AKEL and DISY faithful as well. Should he steamroll to a
second term, the win could greatly reduce the influence of Cyprus's
two major political parties; in response, both will attempt to
tarnish Papadopoulos's "hero" image to get back their supporters.
Short-term, this means a presidential campaign that leaves aside
serious issues -- rising energy prices, trouble-plagued agricultural
and tourism sectors, and a potentially catastrophic drought beg for
candidates' attention -- to focus instead on "he said, she said"
histrionics over the long-dead Annan Plan.

SCHLICHER