Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NICOSIA855
2007-10-26 09:27:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Nicosia
Cable title:  

ELECTIONS 2008: MECHANICS AND PROCESS

Tags:  PGOV PREL CY 
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Amy Marie Newcomb 01/22/2008 04:32:37 PM From DB/Inbox: ECO-POLShare

Cable 
Text: 
 
 
UNCLAS SENSITIVE NICOSIA 00855

SIPDIS
CXNICOSI:
 ACTION: DCM EXEC
 INFO: DAO RAO ECON POL

DISSEMINATION: EXEC
CHARGE: PROG

APPROVED: AMB:RSCHLICHER
DRAFTED: POL:AMYIALLOUROU
CLEARED: DCM:JZIMMERMAN; POL:GMACRIS

VZCZCNCI026
RR RUEHC RUEHZL RUCNDT RUEHBS
DE RUEHNC #0855/01 2990927
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 260927Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8267
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0981
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000855 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS 2008: MECHANICS AND PROCESS

Reference: 06 Nicosia 1964

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000855

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS 2008: MECHANICS AND PROCESS

Reference: 06 Nicosia 1964


1. (U) Summary: Cypriots will go to the polls on February 17 to
elect their president. With three strong candidates in the race, it
is doubtful that one of them will tally the required 50
percent-plus-one to win outright, forcing a February 24 runoff.
Historically, successful candidates have enjoyed first-round backing
from either Communist AKEL or conservative DISY, each party
commanding one-third of the electorate. This race is different,
however, since both AKEL (for the first time ever) and DISY are
sponsoring challengers against incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos.
Polling results vary according to which party sponsored the count,
but all show less than four points separating the leading and
third-place candidates. End Summary.

--------------
How the Game is Played
--------------


2. (U) Presidential elections in Cyprus are held every five years.
According to the 1960 Constitution, the President should be a Greek
Cypriot elected directly by the Greek Cypriot community (the
Constitution provides for the simultaneous election of a Turkish
Cypriot Vice President, but the position has remained vacant since
the onset of inter-communal clashes in 1963). The presidential
candidate who receives more than fifty percent of the vote wins
office. If none attains the requisite majority, a runoff election
takes place the following week between the two top vote-getters.
Next year's elections are scheduled for February 17 and 24, with the
presidential investiture slated for February 29.


3. (U) Voting is mandatory for all eligible Greek Cypriots over 18
(Turkish Cypriots residing in the government-controlled areas may
also vote). Not registering in the electoral roll, or not voting
without a valid reason is a criminal offense punishable by up to six
months imprisonment and/or a fine of 200 Cyprus pounds
(approximately USD 485). In practice, however, authorities do not
exercise these provisions. The projected number of voters in the
February election is 520,000. Of those, some 27,000 are new voters
between the ages of 18 and 30 who have so far failed to register.
The Electoral Service of the Ministry of Interior has sent them
letters informing them of their obligations, and all major parties
are working to gain their support.


4. (U) On election day (always a Sunday),polling stations open at

07:00 and close at 17:00. Ballots are counted by hand and the
president of the polling station transmits the results via e-mail to
the central election service in Nicosia. The Election Service of
the Ministry of Interior expects to have a reliable projection of
the results by 19:30.


5. (U) By law, campaigning stops at midnight of the preceding
Friday, and the publication of opinion polls is prohibited for the
entire week before the election. Exit poll results can be announced
immediately after the closing of polling stations, however.

--------------
Historical Background and Current Situation
--------------


6. (U) Next February's vote will mark the eleventh presidential
election in the brief history of the Republic of Cyprus. Only five
chief executives have governed since independence: Archbishop
Makarios (1959-1977),DIKO leader Spyros Kyprianou (1977-1988),
independent George Vassiliou (1988-1993),DISY leader Glafcos
Clerides (1993-2003),and incumbent President Tassos Papadopoulos.
Papadopoulos won office in via an alliance of his own party, DIKO,
plus AKEL and socialist party EDEK.


7. (U) In the post-Makarios era, the support of one of the two
major parties, AKEL or DISY, was a sine qua non for the success of a
presidential candidate. The two parties, which represent
approximately one-third of the electorate each, possess strong
mechanisms which enable them to rally the support of the bulk of
their followers at every election. However, the strong public and
media support for incumbent Papadopoulos' Cyprus problem policy
presents a difficulty that the two parties never have had to
confront before. Surveys conducted in September and October show
Papadopoulos continuing to hold a slim lead over challengers
Dimitris Christofias (AKEL) and Ioannis Kasoulides (DISY),with
roughly four percentage points separating them.


8. (U) Papadopoulos is supported by a coalition incorporating DIKO,
EDEK, the European Party (EUROKO),as well as a few other smaller
political groups and organizations united in their opposition to the
2004 Annan Plan and similar, "unfair" Cyprus reunification efforts.
Based on the May 2006 parliamentary election results, the
coalition's combined electoral strength amounts to one-third of the
electorate, roughly equaling the DISY and AKEL haul.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) Over the next four months, the presidential candidates
will develop and promote platforms containing planks on the economy,
crime, education, and other matters affecting day-to-day Cypriot
life. And voters will ignore them. Two factors ultimately will
determine who advances into the second round: "syspeirosy," best
defined as a mixture of party cohesion and high turnout, and the
individual candidate's success in convincing the electorate that
he's most fit to manage the Cyprus Problem.

SCHLICHER