Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NICOSIA839
2007-10-18 11:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nicosia
Cable title:  

DISY CHIEF OPTIMISTIC BUT LAMENTS CANDIDATE'S

Tags:  PGOV PREL UNFICYP CY TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181141Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8250
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0974
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000839 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNFICYP CY TU
SUBJECT: DISY CHIEF OPTIMISTIC BUT LAMENTS CANDIDATE'S
SHORTCOMINGS

REF: A. NICOSIA 827


B. NICOSIA 771

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000839

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNFICYP CY TU
SUBJECT: DISY CHIEF OPTIMISTIC BUT LAMENTS CANDIDATE'S
SHORTCOMINGS

REF: A. NICOSIA 827


B. NICOSIA 771

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: DISY-backed presidential candidate Ioannis
Kasoulides bests his competitors in smarts and moderation,
but has failed to impress the Cypriot electorate with
leadership skills and political savvy, bemoaned party chief
Nikos Anastassiades in an October 16 meeting with the
Ambassador. Worse, Kasoulides possessed a stubborn streak
and so far had ignored party-suggested course corrections.
Nonetheless, the deficit shown in recent polls -- just four
percent separated the three contenders -- might still be
overcome, Anastassiades reasoned, should DISY succeed in
enforcing party cohesion and bringing out the vote. Cyprus
direly needed new leadership, he argued, as President Tassos
Papadopoulos's "stupid" policies had brought shame and
embarrassment on the island, with the prospect of permanent
partition now looming large. An of-late flexible
Papadopoulos sought movement on the July 8 process solely for
electoral gain, Anastassiades warned; he urged the Ambassador
and broader international community to remain wary. Whether
or not sincerity underpinned the President's efforts, the
DISY chieftain doubted they would bear fruit. Turkish
Cypriots' strengthening economy and growing international
visibility meant they no longer required a unified island to
thrive, he concluded, and T/C leader Mehmet Ali Talat no
longer appeared wed to a federal solution. End Summary.

-------------- ---
Candidate Bright, but Inexperienced and Stubborn
-------------- ---


2. (C) The Ambassador October 16 began a round of contacts
with prominent party leaders by calling on Anastassiades. He
found the DISY boss as mercurial and animated as always,
despite rumors he was suffering from a severe illness (NFI).
Their conversation turned immediately to Cypriot presidential
elections and the party's chances of returning to power
behind favored candidate Ioannis Kasoulides. Anastassiades
was laboring mightily to convince the electorate that

Kasoulides was both the race's smartest contender and its
most moderate, the latter vital in securing the trust of
Turkish Cypriots and the international community (Ref A).
"Leadership" appeared a tougher sell, however; Anastassiades
groaned over results from recent polls and focus groups that
showed Kasoulides sorely lacking in that department.


3. (C) DISY higher-ups had urged the candidate to drop or
bench the hitherto unknown thirty-somethings prominent in
Kasoulides's entourage and recruit an eminence grise or two,
but he so far had refused their counsel. Further, Kasoulides
had refused to engage a handful of sympathetic AKEL deputies
whose endorsement would have buttressed his campaign. With
AKEL Secretary General Dimitris Christofias now in the race,
these MPs were no longer viable targets for recruitment.
Nearly ten years removed from elected Cypriot office --
Kasoulides served as foreign minister and currently sits in
the European Parliament -- the DISY candidate had forgotten
the basics of island politics, Anastassiades regretted.


4. (C) Not all news was gloomy; recent polls had delivered
positives as well. At 75 percent, DISY cohesion topped the
major parties, Anastassiades trumpeted; it was his
responsibility to ensure that figure hit 90 percent by
election day. Party officials had begun lobbying registered
voters in earnest only days before, he revealed, and were
focusing on areas where DISY fared weakest, such as the
Paphos district. The job looked difficult, as Papadopoulos
had enjoyed recent success in "converting" groups
historically DISY-leaning, such as the business elite and
former EOKA (a celebrated anti-colonial guerrilla group)
members. Even 100 percent cohesion would not ensure victory
or even passage into the second round, Anastassiades added.
It was vital that Kasoulides take chunks from the AKEL and
DIKO bases and convince a majority of Cyprus's 29,000
eligible but unregistered voters to favor DISY.

--------------
Yet Competitors Facing Challenges As Well
--------------


5. (C) Ironically, Anastassiades hoped AKEL's cohesion rate
-- hovering just below DISY's, but low for the historically
obedient Communist force -- would rise. Such an outcome
favored Kasoulides, since every voter AKEL managed to return
to its fold would have voted Papadopoulos, helping to propel

NICOSIA 00000839 002 OF 003


the incumbent President into the second round. AKEL was
changing, Anastassiades asserted, and could no longer count
on the rank-and-file blindly heeding the leadership's voting
instructions. Further, he wondered whether voters would
punish Christofias over the Communist leader's own lack of
leadership; after all, Christofias in 2004 had shown little
backbone in rubbishing the Annan Plan reunification effort,
an initiative he publicly had supported for two years.


6. (C) Papadopoulos's armor showed chinks as well,
Anastassiades claimed. A faction of the President's DIKO
party, followers of former President Spyros Kyprianou, likely
would throw their votes elsewhere. Former AKEL MP and
Foreign Minister Yiorgos Lillikas, now coordinating
Papadopoulos's campaign, actually was helping AKEL cohesion
by engaging in public spats with his one-time colleagues.
EUROKO head and Papadopoulos sycophant Dimitris Syllouris had
troubled mainstream voters by questioning the viability of a
bi-communal, bi-zonal federal model, the preferred Cyprus
Problem solution for thirty years. The President, despite
projecting an air of inevitability around his re-election,
was not invincible, Anastassiades contended.

--------------
Under Current Leader, to Hell in a Handbasket
--------------


7. (C) Papadopoulos was driving the country to disaster but
whistling all the way, Anastassiades decried. International
court decisions favoring the "breakaway Turkish Cypriot
state," sea connections between "occupied" Famagusta and
Syria, "TRNC" officials receiving VIP treatment in Italy and
Germany -- all were negative developments occurring on
Papadopoulos's watch, yet the President continued to insist
all was well. His nearly complete control over Cypriot media
permitted such hubris, the DISY leader regretted, as
disagreement with Government policies morphed into heresy in
most editors' hands, and Papadopoulos critics labeled
"Turk-lovers."


8. (C) A rash of scandals -- each leading back to the
President, his family, or Tassos Papadopoulos and Associates,
a law firm seemingly ripped from a John Grisham manuscript --
revealed the underlying rot. The latest "scandal of the
century," which Anastassiades himself broke in early October,
concerned Cyprus's efforts to abandon heavy fuel oil for
natural gas to fuel its electricity generators (Ref B). His
investigation into shell companies established by
Papadopoulos cronies to reap sweetheart deals implicated
primarily Lillikas and the President's son Nicholas, but the
architects had covered their tracks so smartly as to preclude
effective prosecution. Should the deal eventually
materialize, Anastassiades warned, Cyprus stood to lose
hundreds of millions of pounds in higher fuel costs and
European Union fines, while those in on the scam would make
millions.


9. (C) "In any European (sic) country, these guys would face
prison, and the Government would be forced to resign,"
Anastassiades bellowed. But not Cyprus. Not only was
Papadopoulos still in power, but the latest polls -- taken
after the scandal had broken -- put him Number 1 in fighting
corruption. "Unthinkable," he fretted.

-------------- --
July 8 Agreement: Don't Throw President a Bone
-------------- --


10. (C) Recent Papadopoulos proposals on opening the Ledra
Street crossing point and reinvigorating the July 8 Agreement
were pure window-dressing designed to provide the President
an electoral jump-start, Anastassiades ventured. The
President would contend it was unwise to replace the Greek
Cypriot leader during delicate Cyprus Problem negotiations.
"But a dog can't straighten his tail," the DISY chief
chuckled, translating the Greek "leopard can't change his
spots" euphemism. The minute Papadopoulos won re-election,
he was certain the proposals would drop off the table.


11. (C) Anastassiades implored the Ambassador and his P-5
colleagues not to take the bait. The United States sought no
role in the presidential campaign and favored no particular
candidate, the Ambassador responded. Yet we could not NOT
welcome an initiative that sought to resuscitate the moribund
July 8 arrangement, which both sides and the UN had inked and
continued to support, at least publicly. Great care would be
exercised in drafting and delivering the U.S. public message,
he promised.

NICOSIA 00000839 003 OF 003



--------------
T/Cs Turning Away From Solutions
--------------


12. (C) The Turkish Cypriots might even welcome a
Papadopoulos re-election, Anastassiades glumly asserted. In
recent months he had witnessed a change in T/C attitudes,
beginning with Talat's. The T/C leader no longer seemed
wedded to a bi-zonal, bi-communal reunited Cyprus,
Anastassiades speculated, but rather was sounding more like
long-time separatist Rauf Denktash. If Turkish Cypriots now
favored partition, five more years of Tassos would play into
their plans.

--------------
Comment
--------------


13. (C) For a year we have witnessed varying degrees of
friction between party leader Anastassiades and
standard-bearer Kasoulides; based on this latest
get-together, discord still exists. Six, even three months
ago, lower-level DISY officials hinted the party would dump
the candidate were a more electable candidate to come
forward. Unable to identify that individual, however,
Anastassiades and company grudgingly have marshaled their
forces behind Kasoulides. We wonder if they committed too
late, however. Further, while DISY cohesion rates have risen
in past elections, 90 percent seems a bridge too far. Close
contacts report that Papadopoulos -- aided by wealthy and
well-connected wife Fotini -- has made great inroads with the
island hoi polloi whose votes DISY historically owned.
Kasoulides's advancement into the second round therefore will
depend on him scoring high with the undecideds and
successfully scrounging for dissatisfied DIKO and AKEL
voters. Anastassiades's detective work on the natural gas
and similar debacles should have netted his candidate a few
votes from this pool. This being Cyprus, however, if a
scandal doesn't involve the Annan Plan or broader Cyprus
Problem, the likelihood of it tarring an incumbent and
effecting his downfall is scant.
SCHLICHER