Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NICOSIA836
2007-10-18 04:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nicosia
Cable title:  

LOSING SUPPORT, MAJOR T/C PARTIES DEBATE EARLY,

Tags:  PGOV PREL CY TU 
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DE RUEHNC #0836/01 2910403
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 180403Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8247
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 5047
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0972
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000836 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY TU
SUBJECT: LOSING SUPPORT, MAJOR T/C PARTIES DEBATE EARLY,
BY-ELECTIONS

REF: NICOSIA 799

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher for reasons 1.4(a) and
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000836

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY TU
SUBJECT: LOSING SUPPORT, MAJOR T/C PARTIES DEBATE EARLY,
BY-ELECTIONS

REF: NICOSIA 799

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher for reasons 1.4(a) and 1.
4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Two of three major Turkish Cypriot
political parties admit a recent drop in voter support, while
a third argues its numbers are steady or rising despite
indications to the contrary. Together, the Republican
Turkish Party (CTP),National Unity Party (UBP) and
Democratic Party (DP) took 90 percent of the vote in 2005
"parliamentary" elections. A cooling economy and ham-handed
administration have hurt the "governing" CTP, however, while
a feckless boycott of "Parliament" and calamitous infighting
have harmed opposition DP and UBP, respectively. Weakened
but still very much in control, CTP will continue to fend off
calls for early elections in 2008. In the meantime, the
three parties hope to hammer out a face-saving compromise
regarding "constitutional" and administrative reforms. If
successful, they may provide cover for early elections in
2009, a year ahead of schedule. The ride ahead will continue
to be turbulent, though, with possibilities including a mass
UBP-DP resignation from "Parliament," DP's re-entry into the
"Government," and the rise of a political alternative from
smaller or as yet-unformed parties (Septel). End Summary.

CTP: DOWN, BUT NOT OUT YET


2. (C) In recent conversations with Embassy officers, CTP
acknowledged a drop in voter support from its record 44.5
percent haul in February 2005 "parliamentary" elections,
which secured the party 24 of 50 seats. (Note: CTP presently
has twenty-five "MPs," owing to a subsequent by-election
victory. End Note). In an October 4 meeting, "Presidential"
Spokesman Hasan Ercakica claimed the party could still win 19
or 20 seats if elections were held now, but added that the
"Government" had been hurt by its inability to fulfill
certain promises. The four-term CTP mayor of Famagusta,
Oktay Kayalp, complained on October 10 that the "Government"
had become "too large and clumsy," creating dissatisfied
protest voters. They included teachers -- historically a key
CTP constituency -- and businessmen. And "Public Works and

Transport Minister8 and "Government" Spokesman Salih Usar
admitted on September 28 that an implosion in the building
sector -- at least among the smaller players -- and a drop in
admissions at Turkish Cypriot universities had hurt the T/C
economy. Still, he believed growth would hit seven percent
in 2007, in line with budget predictions and unlikely to
foment political instability.


3. (C) Despite the recent setbacks, CTP leaders reject
opposition calls for early elections. Usar said there was no
popular demand for them, while Ercakica claimed that UBP does
not even want earlier elections itself. On September 20, CTP
General Secretary Omer Kalyoncu informed the Embassy of a
possible compromise: for the sake of bringing the opposition
back into "Parliament," CTP might agree to early elections in
the fall of 2009, but no sooner.

UBP: WE ARE THE LEAST UNPOPULAR OF EVERYONE


4. (C) UBP is riven by factionalism over what all in the
party agree has been a failed boycott of "Parliament."
Leader Tahsin Ertugruloglu has taken a beating in the press
-- and from his own party -- after postponing talks on
"constitutional" and administrative reforms with DP and CTP
in order to fly to Ankara "for consultations." (Note: UBP has
not occupied its fourteen seats in "Parliament" since
September 2006, when CTP dumped DP as its junior partner and
entered into a coalition with the newly-formed Freedom and
Reform Party (OP). End Note)


5. (C) Former UBP leader and Nicosia "MP" Huseyin Ozgorgun
complained on October 4 that the party was at an impasse over
the boycott and could find no easy solution. He claimed that
UBP "was finished" if it had to contest early elections and
would need at least two years to revitalize. Not all party
members shared his dire predictions, however. Hasan Tacoy,
leader of the UBP's Nicosia branch and an opponent of
Ertugruloglu, quipped September 24 that UBP was "the least
unpopular of all" and thus supported early elections.


6. (C) The party's nuclear option is a mass "parliamentary"
resignation to trigger by-elections. Dervis Eroglu, a former

NICOSIA 00000836 002 OF 002


"TRNC" PM and, until 2005, UBP party leader, revealed on
October 11 that such an option was still being discussed.
(Note: Under the "TRNC Election Law," by-elections are not
conducted if a year or less remains until regularly scheduled
general elections, which are set for February 2010. End
Note) Despite his vehement denials, Eroglu fueled rumors
about a new bid for party leadership when, on an October 3
talk show, he said that UBP leader Tahsin Ertugruloglu had
lost support of the party.

DP: IN OR OUT OF THE "GOVERNMENT?"


7. (C) In an October 9 meeting, Democrat Party (DP) leader
Serdar Denktash made no secret of his desire to end the
"parliamentary"8 boycott of his six deputies and rejoin the
"Government.8 (Note: "Presidential" spokesman Ercakica
hinted at attempts to bring DP back into the "Government"
fold during an October 4 meeting. End Note) Denktash reeled
off three possible short-term scenarios:

-- DP joins the "Government," after which CTP-DP agree on the
adoption of a "presidential system" and elections in 2010;
-- DP remains in opposition, although "constitutional"
reforms are passed, followed by early elections;
-- DP and UBP resign from "Parliament" and force by-elections.


8. (C) Alone among the major party leaders, Denktash
predicted a boost in seats, from six to a possible 15, in by-
or full-bore elections. He appeared buoyed by DP's showing
in 2006 local elections, when the party won 22 percent of
votes cast, a haul 50 percent greater than in the 2005 race.
(Comment: We, however, have heard that DP is losing ground to
the lately-reinvigorated OP. In Famagusta, for example, two
of four DP city council members defected recently to the
latter party. End Comment)

AD HOC SOLUTION?


9. (C) Both the "Government" and opposition hope to find a
face-saving solution to the boycott of "Parliament" through
the October 9 creation (by the CTP, DP, and UBP) of three ad
hoc committees to work on "constitutional" and administrative
reforms. They will tackle a wide range of issues as well as
discuss the transition to a "presidential" system of
"governance." For its part, CTP would like to democratize
the "Constitution" -- especially by abolishing the
"temporary" article giving Turkey control over "TRNC" police
and military -- while DP wants a "presidential system," a
dream of former "President" Rauf Denktash. The six-person
committees (3 CTP / 2 UBP / 1 DP) will issue a progress
report on December 20; if successful, their work may lead to
an agreement on earlier elections.


10. (C) Mutual suspicions and real differences, however, may
undermine the work of the ad hoc groups. Nazim Beratli, a
CTP "MP," told us on October 9 it would be difficult to reach
an agreement, owing to philosophical differences between
members. UBP's Eroglu believed that CTP would simply use the
committees to play for time, while DP's Denktash, who will
chair the "presidential system" body, appeared optimistic and
said the CTP had moved closer to his position. Beratli,
however, said that CTP still had serious reservations about a
"presidential system," especially given the current weakness
of the "legislature."


11. (C) Comment: Absent clear advice from Ankara that will
change the parties' jostling, turbulence likely will plague
Turkish Cypriot politics for the forseeable future. Early
"national" elections, if they happen at all, will probably
not materialize before mid-2009, however. A by-election
could come sooner, spurned by a mass UBP "parliamentary"
defection. But even that seems unlikely, since Eroglu -- the
driving force behind such a move -- admitted that DP and UBP
should have resigned in February, the implication being that
the parties see benefit in retaining their seats, whether or
not they fill them. Muddying the political picture even
further is the rise, fall, and apparent renaissance of OP,
lately bolstered by globe-trotting leader and "FM" Turgay
Avci. Post will analyze the role and fortunes of OP and the
T/C communities smaller parties in a separate message. End
Comment.
SCHLICHER