ELECTIONS: CITING FRONT-RUNNERS' FLAWS, LONG SHOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000803

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UNFICYP CY TU
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: CITING FRONT-RUNNERS' FLAWS, LONG SHOT
REFUSES TO BOW OUT

REF: NICOSIA 459

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Despite trailing Cyprus's "serious"
presidential candidates by significant margins, outsider
Costas Themistocleous voices no intention of abandoning his
electoral campaign anytime soon. Recent polling shows
Themistocleous's three rivals each tallying between 29 and 31
percent; in this scenario, his own one percent might well
represent the difference between them advancing to the second
round or going home early. A reluctant ally or kingmaker,
however, he argues that neither of RoC President Tassos
Papadopoulos's main challengers deserves his endorsement,
since both lack the backbone to defend the 2004 Annan Plan,
the "best solution yet devised to re-unify the island," and
were unwilling to bury ideological differences in support of
a joint candidate. Should today's near dead-heat conditions
continue until December or January, however, Themistocleous
will feel greater pressure from pro-solution forces within
the Christofias and Kasoulides camps to work a deal. END
SUMMARY.

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Even a Sliver Might Make the Difference
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2. (U) In April, former Agriculture Minister (1998-2003)
Costas Themistocleous announced his decision to stand in the
2008 presidential election (Reftel). Rather than distance
himself from the intensely unpopular Annan Plan, as most all
of its proponents have done of late, Themistocleous continues
to extol its virtues. He announced his electoral ambitions
on April 24, exactly three years after Greek Cypriots buried
the Plan in a referendum, and has based his campaign on
reviving the UN initiative. His reward for playing the
gadfly? Polling numbers that hover around one percent, well
behind the leaders. Even a groundswell of support might only
raise his numbers to two percent, Themistocleous had told us
earlier; he understood his ability to shape the presidential
debate or affect its outcome was minuscule.


3. (SBU) That conversation occurred in June, however, when
analysts were predicting a runaway Papadopoulos win in a
two-way race against DISY-supported challenger Ioannis
Kasoulides. With the July breakup of the governing coalition
and subsequent emergence of AKEL Secretary General Dimitris
Christofias as a contender, however, the race has turned
tight; thousands or even hundreds of votes may determine who
advances to the second round. Themistocleous's expected haul
of 4,000-odd votes suddenly appears significant, leaving
pundits and Embassy contacts speculating whether he
eventually intends to withdraw from the race and urge his
flock to support one of Papadopoulos's challengers.

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Principles Trump Politics...For Now
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4. (C) Cyprus's 2008 election represents a watershed event,
Themistocleous told Embassy staff in September. Should Greek
Cypriot voters re-elect their hard-line president, he doubted
the island's two communities would reach a settlement that
reunified the island, leaving only the status quo or a
negotiated partition, both unacceptable end-states.
Papadopoulos must go, he insisted (a point he repeated in a
late-September televised debate, which Papadopoulos campaign
coordinator and former Foreign Minister Yiorgos Lillikas
parried by expressing mock gratitude -- "you don't know how
much you're helping us," the ex-FM quipped.)


5. (C) Nevertheless, it was not Themistocleous's
responsibility to spur the incumbent's downfall, he argued.
His 1-2 percent support was holding steady, and with
Christofias's unexpected candidacy having tightened the race,
he acknowledged the others were eyeing his haul hungrily.
Yet the long shot had no intention of abandoning the race and
endorsing the AKEL or DISY contender, even if it meant
Papadopoulos advancing to the second round and eventually
winning a second term in office.


6. (C) A successful Cyprus solution depended on close
cooperation between Cyprus's largest parties, Themistocleous
contended. Yet AKEL and DISY, despite each seeking to defeat
Papadopoulos -- essential for bringing about fruitful
inter-communal negotiations -- had proven incapable of
identifying a candidate palatable to both. AKEL deserved the
lion's share of blame, he thought, since DISY repeatedly had

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stated its interest in combining forces. Further, in pushing
Papadopoulos to promise to support AKEL in the event he did
not advance to the second round, Christofias had shown that
personal and/or party electoral ambitions figured higher on
his agenda than reunifying the island. Over fifteen years,
Themistocleous argued, the AKEL commissar's positions had
hardened -- how else to explain Christofias's choice to join
an alliance with Papadopoulos?


7. (C) Kasoulides and DISY merited scorn as well. While the
right-wing candidate had supported the Annan Plan in 2004,
Themistocleous revealed, in 2007, to boost his electoral
chances, he was disparaging the UN initiative in ways similar
to Christofias or Papadopoulos. In sum, neither "serious"
challenger deserved his one percent, those Greek Cypriots who
understood that a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation as
stipulated by Annan represented Cyprus's best hope for
workable governance and a peaceful future.

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But Later?
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8. (C) COMMENT: Although he tarred Papadopoulos,
Christofias, and Kasoulides with the same anti-solution
stain, Costas Themistocleous undoubtedly would prefer one of
the challengers to unseat the incumbent come February. Yet
he proclaims no intention to end his campaign and the
Quixotic quest to revive the Annan Plan. Should the Big
Three candidates remain separated by a slim margin well into
2008, however, pressures on the long shot should spike
considerably. One close Embassy contact and prominent Annan
supporter revealed October 2 that a consortium of NGOs
planned to lobby Themistocleous to shutter his campaign a
week before the election. NGO leaders, who believed the
long-shot candidate was stealing votes from the Christofias
camp, were confident he would honor their wishes and bow out,
helping to ensure that "anybody but Papadopoulos" emerges
victorious in February.
SCHLICHER