FM GUL VISIT TO NORTHERN CYPRUS: LITTLE OBVIOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000771

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU CY
SUBJECT: FM GUL VISIT TO NORTHERN CYPRUS: LITTLE OBVIOUS
CHANGE IN TURKISH POLICY


Classified By: Classified by AMB. Ron Schlicher for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (C) Summary: During his September 18-19 visit to the
"Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)", Turkish
President Abdullah Gul delivered what seemed to be an
intentionally mixed message in an effort to please both
Turkish Cypriot "two states" hard-liners and pro-2004
referendum forces. His 22-hour visit, however,brought little
in the way of policy shifts. For pro-solution Turkish
Cypriots, Gul called for a U.N.-brokered comprehensive
solution to create a "partnership state" based on bizonality,
political equality, and Turkish guarantor status. For
hard-liners, he stated that any solution would have to take
into account the realities of "two separate peoples, two
separate democratic structures, and two separate states." Gul
only raised the Annan Plan when queried and expressed regret
that the GOC had not answered Talat's September 5th call to
accelerate the July 8 process. Gul also warned against
linking the Cyprus question with Turkey's E.U. accession bid,
and called for an end to "TRNC" isolation. Predictably, he
praised Turkish forces as a guarantee of peace on the island.
He did, however, offer an olive branch of sorts to Greek
Cypriots when he called for a post-solution "vision of unity"
that would encompass a post-solution Cyprus as well as
Greece. The Cypriot Government and media responded harshly to
the visit, focusing on Gul's "two-state" message. For its
part, the Turkish "Embassy" said that Gul's visit brought no
change in policy direction. Ruling Republic Turkish Party
(CTP) insiders interpreted Gul's utterances as supportive of
their pro-solution policy and seemed pleased with the visit.
End Summary.


2. (C) Turkish President Abdullah Gul's September 18-19 visit
to the "TRNC"--traditionally the first "foreign" visit by a
Turkish head of state--included an address to "parliament", a
one-on-one meeting with "President" Mehmet Ali Talat followed
by a joint press conference, Iftar dinner, reception, meeting
with former "TRNC President" Rauf Denktas, visit to the
Turkish Peace Forces Command (KTBK) as well as meetings with
both opposition and "government" parties in the office of the
"Speaker of Parliament." The opposition Democratic (DP) and
National Unity (UBP) parties even made a one-time exception
to their year-long parliamentary boycott to attend Gul's
speech,though DP did not attend the parties' meeting.


3. (C) In blow-over from Turkish politics, a separate
schedule was organized for First Lady Hayrunissa Gul to avoid
clashes with the Turkish military, which objects to Ms. Gul's
headscarf. Consequently, Gul was not offered the military
honor guard at the airport that then Turkish President Ahmet
Necdet Sezer received during his 2000 visit. He did, however,
review honor guards at the KTBK headquarters and at the
"Presidential" residence. In a September 20th meeting with
Poloff, ruling CTP General Secretary Ahmet Kalyoncu scoffed
at the need to protect the military's sensitivities since
head scarves are not an issue in the "TRNC", even for the
center-left CTP.

TWO STATES, THEN ONE "PARTNERSHIP" STATE


4. (C) Gul offered up something for Turkish Cypriots of every
political stripe in both his "parliamentary address" and in
his joint press conference with "TRNC President" Mehmet Ali
Talat. Gul pledged support for the "TRNC state" and its
existence. He stated that a solution on the island would
"have to be based on realities", namely the existence of "two
peoples, two democracies, and two states."(Note: In a
September 18 press conference, Gul also added "two
religions." This mention of religion was not welcomed by the
profoundly secular Turkish Cypriots, and it was dropped in
his September 19 speech before "parliament" End Note). While
the "two realities" statement infuriated the Greek Cypriot
press and the GOC, Turkish Cypriot journalist and
pro-solution supporter Sami Ozuslu warned us against
"exaggerating" Gul's "two state" comments: "Turkey recognizes
the TRNC, so of course the talk is of two states. I would not
blow it out of proportion." Publicly, he dubbed Gul's visit
"constructive" in one of his columns. Gul also warned against
"targeting" the Turkish military on the island with
"unbecoming" statements and praised the militiary as an
"guarantee" of peace and tranquility. Gul noted that a
"lasting peace" had still not been achieved, a poke at the
GOC about the continued need for Turkish troops in the "TRNC".


5. (C) At the same time, the Turkish President called for a
U.N.-brokered comprehensive solution to create a "partnership
state" based on bizonality, political equality, and Turkish
guarantor status. He complained that "President" Talat's
offer to find a solution by the end of 2008 had been rejected
by the "Greek side" and said that the Turkish side remained

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committed to a solution. For his part, Talat repeated his
September 5th call to speed up the peace process and broker a
solution by the end of 2008. In a September 19th meeting with
Poloff, CTP Foreign Affairs Secretary Kutlay Erk told us that
Gul's position was supportive of the party's pro-solution
effort. He, along with Kalyoncu, were not optimistic however
about the September 5 process, at least as long as
Papadopolous remains in power.



6. (U) Gul also reaffirmed Turkey's commitment to its E.U.
accession path and warned against linking the Cyprus question
with it. He called for an end to the "TRNC"s isolation and
restrictions against it. He said that the Turkish side "had
done more than its part" to achieve peace.


ANNAN PLAN SHOULD NOT BE FORGOTTEN


7. (SBU) Gul also took a balanced line regarding the Annan
Plan, neither demanding its restoration or its abandonment.
In a September 18th press conference with Talat, the Turkish
President said that, "We cannot completely ignore it (Annan
Plan) and start again from scratch...It is definitely a plan
that should be referred to." Even Former "President" Rauf
Denktas--a Annan Plan opponent--quipped after meeting Gul
that they no longer had "differences" since the Annan Plan no
longer existed. (Note: Gul only raised the Annan Plan when
asked.End Note)

OlIVE BRANCH TO GOC GETS LOST


8. (SBU) Gul extended an olive branch of sorts to the GOC in
a call "to spread peace, stability, and welfare" in the
eastern Mediterranean after a "comprehensive solution on the
island" creates a "partnership state" i.e., a post-solution
Republic of Cyprus. He also invited Greece to be part of this
eastern Mediterranean Troika. (Comment: The call is clearly
for three states: Greece, Cyprus, and Gul's "partnership
state", not four. End Comment). Turkish "DCM" Levent Eler
told poloff on September 21 that the eastern Mediterranean
offer was "real" if a solution could be achieved.

GREEK CYPRIOT RESPONSE FAST AND FURIOUS


9. (U) Greek Cypriots were quick to attack the Gul visit,
officially and in the press. On September 18th, the GOC
Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a September 18th press
release calling the visit "a provocation" and said Gul was
"following the orders given by Turkish Generals." Government
Spokesman Vasilis Palmas followed on September 19th by
stating that, "Mr. Gul's statement (regarding the existence
of two peoples, states, democratic systems, and religions)
constitute additional proof...of the negative approach
towards the agreed July 8 process." All Greek Cypriot
political parties condemned the visit as well. Press coverage
was in line with official comments. It saw Gul's talk of
"two-states" as a move away from the Gambari process.

TURKISH "EMBASSY": NOTHING HAS CHANGED


10. (C) Turkish "Embassy" DCM Levent Eler told Poloff on
September 21st that the "there is nothing new" in Gul's
statements. He repeated Turkish support for a bi-communal,
bi-zonal solution under U.N. auspices. (Note: Gul did not use
"bi-communal" in his speech before "Parliament." End Note).
Eler was quick to point out, however, that the parameters of
any U.N. framework would have to be new, and not a rehashing
of earlier versions. He also shied away from defining what
exactly Gul meant by a "partnership state": "It is unclear at
present, it could be a federation or a confederation." He
complained that Turkey had been as "flexible" as it could on
Cyprus, especially in view of Greek Cypriot intransigence.
Finally, he expressed frustration at the international
community's inability (including that of the U.S.) to help
the Turkish Cypriots.


11. (C) Comment: With the exception of the far-left, most
Turkish Cypriots--each for his own reason--was pleased with
the Gul visit. While Gul's emphasis of "two-states" may
indicate a change in tone away from the idea of reunification
through federation, in all his public statements he expressed
clear support for an ultimate single-state solution under the
auspices of the U.N. As one Turkish Cypriot contact pointed
out, it would have been odd if he did not mention
"two-states" given Turkey's recognition of the "TRNC." How
Gul's "partnership" state may ever look, however, is an open
question, and it is worth noting the absence of
"bi-communal", "reunification", "July 8", and "federation" in
his "Parliamentary" address. Increased frustration among both
Turks and Turkish Cypriots-and a desire to strengthen the

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"TRNC" government--may be the cause of Gul's "two-state"
tone. End Comment.
SCHLICHER