MISSING PERSONS COMMITTEE OPTIMISTIC ON RETURN OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000074

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM UNFICYP TU CY
SUBJECT: MISSING PERSONS COMMITTEE OPTIMISTIC ON RETURN OF
REMAINS, BUT JITTERY ABOUT POSSIBLE BACKLASH

REF: 06 NICOSIA 1794 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher, reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Tripartite Committee on Missing Persons
(CMP) is making steady progress exhuming and identifying
Greek and Turkish Cypriots missing since 1963-1974. Pledges
from the USG and other donors have ensured sufficient funding
for operations to continue well into 2008, and CMP members
expect to begin returning remains to families seeking
"closure" in the first quarter of 2007. The CMP is the most
successful bicommunal venture on Cyprus, and has been able to
function thanks to political buy-in from both community
leaders. This commitment appears to be holding. While the
CMP's mandate explicitly forbids it from considering
questions of criminal guilt, Committee members are aware that
the return of victims' remains may stir up political acrimony
and legal disputes -- and are considering strategies to
minimize the negative effect this may have on their future
work. More worrying is a series of anonymous threats against
the CMP from a shadowy group in the north. This has raised
fears of a Turkish Cypriot nationalist backlash against the
Committee, especially as exhumations begin to focus more
exclusively on Greek Cypriot graves in the "TRNC." These
threats, together with other signs of increased tension in
the north, may be an early warning of resurgent nationalist
feeling -- and could portend further difficulties in
relations between the pro-settlement "President" Talat and
local representatives of the Turkish "Deep State." END
SUMMARY.

CMP: A RARE SUCCESS STORY
--------------


2. (SBU) The Tripartite CMP (which consists of a UN, Greek
Cypriot, and Turkish Cypriot member) continues to make steady
progress. Established to determine the fate of Cypriots
(approximately 1500 G/Cs and 500 T/Cs) missing since the
decade of conflict in 1963-74, the Committee overcame years
of political deadlock in 2005/6, thanks in large part to the
advent of a more conciliatory Turkish Cypriot "government."
International donations and the appointment of a dynamic, new
UN Third Member facilitated the start of long-delayed
investigations and exhumations -- as well as the construction
of dedicated forensic anthropology and genetic testing
facilities (reftel).


3. (SBU) With its mandate focused only on the identification
of remains (and not on identifying killers),the CMP has so
far favorable reviews from both communities as a useful
humanitarian vehicle for "closure." According to a December
2006 report issued by the Third (UN) Member, Christophe
Girod, over 100 remains have been exhumed so far -- the vast
majority of which have also been genetically tested. CMP's
objective is to begin returning remains to bereaved families
in the first quarter of 2007. Construction is reportedly
moving ahead for a "Family Reception Center" next to the
CMP's facility in the UN Buffer Zone, where remains would be
handed over.


4. (SBU) In subsequent conversations with us, Girod echoed
this optimistic assessment of the CMP's progress so far.
Girod thanked the U.S. for its $150,000 donation (to fund DNA
identification of remains). Other donors (including the
European Commission, Spain, Germany, Ireland, the UK, and
even Turkey) have joined in, pledging enough for the CMP to
continue full-pace operations well into 2008. Cash
contributions from the GOC -- as well as in-kind
contributions of vehicles, office equipment, diggers, and
manpower from the Turkish Cypriot side -- were also important.


5. (C) These contributions, Girod added, reflected a
political decision by the leaders of both communities to
support the CMP -- both as a means to satisfy those
constituents eager to learn the fate of their missing loved
ones, and as a way to bolster their own image as
humanitarian-minded statesmen. Some political posturing
continued, he admitted, including a silly spat over whether
to use Greek or Turkish place names in CMP public documents
(resolved when the members agreed to use only English names
in their paperwork, and to drop by-name geographic references
altogether when an English name did not exist). Nonetheless,
political buy-in from the top had translated into a
remarkably harmonious and collegial working relationship
between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot members and their staff.


6. (C) In separate meetings with us, the Greek and Turkish
Cypriot members generally agreed with
Girod's upbeat assessment of their working relationship, but
each cast mirror-image aspersions on what they believed to be
the not-so-hidden political agenda of the other side's

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political leadership. Each suspects the other of using the
CMP for tactical political advantage, rather than viewing it
as a genuine tool for reconciliation. But fortunately, this
mutual suspicion has not evolved into a material obstacle to
cooperation within the CMP.

DIFFICULT WATERS AHEAD?
--------------


7. (C) Despite the rosy budget and operational prospects for
2007-2008, CMP members still express concern that the return
of remains could reopen old wounds. All three members
privately acknowledge that although CMP reports deliberately
exclude cause-of-death information that might point fingers
to specific perpetrators, distraught families could use the
reports they receive from the CMP (or even forensic evidence
on the remains themselves) to file criminal charges or make
inflammatory public accusations about the other side. If
this were to happen, the pragmatic political cease-fire that
has allowed the CMP to function successfully could quickly
fall apart, they suggest.


8. (C) Already, said Turkish Cypriot member Gulden Plumer
Kucuk, one high-profile Turkish Cypriot journalist was
publishing dramatic investigative articles about the missing.
The articles (while "accurate and well researched") served
to focus public opinion on questions of guilt. The danger,
Plumer Kucuk suggested, was that victims' families (as well
as those with "something to hide" from their past) could be
"radicalized" by the search for the missing -- even as the
bicommunal CMP was trying to stress "closure" and
reconciliation.


9. (C) Therefore, Greek Cypriot member Elias Georgiades told
us, the CMP was taking a careful look at its public relations
and media strategy before it started handing back remains. A
respectful and low-key approach to this delicate task, he
said, would help bolster the CMP's reputation and moderate
public expectations. According to Georgiades, the CMP would
first give back remains to families who were not "volatile"
-- and who would therefore set the appropriate tone for other
relatives to follow. He felt certain that Greek Cypriot
political parties and victims' associations would encourage
moderation among their members and the media, but was far
from certain the Turkish Cypriots would do the same.
Predictably, Plumer Kucuk voiced the opposite concern.

DEEP STATE BACKLASH?
--------------


10. (C) Both Girod and Plumer Kucuk also expressed unease
over a December incident in the Turkish Cypriot village of
Serdarli ("Chatos" in Greek). Anonymous pamphlets attributed
to the "Turkish Revenge Brigade" warned locals not to
cooperate with the CMP (which, the pamphlet claimed, "paid
dollars" to those to give evidence); subsequently, several
members of Plumer Kucuk's staff have received threatening
phone calls. Girod and Plumer Kucuk both felt that the
"TRNC" police had responded appropriately by investigating
the threat and offering enhanced protection for CMP staff and
work sites. Furthermore, some previously hesitant villagers
responded to the threats with defiance, coming forward to
give evidence about the location of Greek Cypriot graves in
the town. Nonetheless, the CMP had decided to postpone
further operations in Serdarli, moving their work to sites
elsewhere until "tempers in the village cooled."


11. (C) Plumer Kucuk was reluctant to assign blame for the
Serdarli threats -- although she did concede that the
pamphlets were "well written and professionally done," and
probably not just the work of idle cranks. She noted that
Serdarli was an especially "sensitive" site for Turkish
Cypriots because of the particularly brutal fighting and
reprisal killings that had taken place there in 1974. Plumer
Kucuk said she could "not dismiss" widespread rumors that
retired police and military personnel resident in Serdarli
(allegedly backed by sympathetic elements still active in the
Turkish security forces) were behind the threats -- which
were supposedly designed to divert attention from former
Turkish Cypriot militia fighters, still living in the
village, with civilian blood on their hands.


12. (C) Plumer Kucuk went on to voice her concern that, in
the coming 1-2 years, the atmosphere in the north would turn
more hostile to the CMP -- and that threats like this could
intensify. With over half of the 500-plus Turkish Cypriot
missing now "more or less located," the CMP would be unable
to continue much longer the delicate ethnic balancing act it
has followed so far (where each dig of Greek Cypriot bones in
the north has been balanced by a corresponding dig of Turkish
Cypriot bones in the south). Soon, only Greek Cypriot bones

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would remain, and the focus of digging would shift inexorably
to the north (and, eventually, to sites on land currently
controlled by the Turkish Army). This would lead average
Turkish Cypriots -- to say nothing of nefarious "Deep State"
types in the security forces -- to view the CMP as an
increasingly one-sided, "meddling" exercise focused entirely
on Turkish wrongdoing, she predicted. Any lawsuits,
"sensationalist press coverage," or other finger-pointing
from the south would only aggravate this trend. Although
Plumer Kucuk was quick to add that "President" Talat remained
fully supportive of her work and her independence, she
wondered whether his ability to back the CMP was sustainable
in the long term.

COMMENT
--------------


13. (C) The CMP is an important humanitarian undertaking.
Whether the political support it enjoys from the two
community leaders is heartfelt or merely tactical is almost
beside the point -- as one of the few comparative bright
spots in bicommunal relations, neither side feels it can
afford to abandon cooperation with the CMP at this point.
For this reason, the CMP seems likely to benefit from
continued international support. There are medium-term
reasons to worry, however. Even if the CMP handles the
return of remains this spring with the utmost care, the odds
are still pretty good that, after receiving the bones of
their loved ones, at least some bereaved Cypriots could upset
the apple cart with acrimonious litigation and public
recrimination aimed at the other side.


14. (C) Furthermore, as exhumations begin to focus more
exclusively on the north, the CMP seems set for continued
friction with former Turkish Cypriot militia fighters and
their allies in the security forces. How Talat handles this
tension will be a key barometer of his political strength.
Given the current friction between him and the "Deep State"
(over the Ledra Street bridge, control of law
enforcement/security, and how to handle the Cyprus problem),
supporting the CMP through the tougher times ahead may prove
as difficult as it is essential. END COMMENT.
SCHLICHER