Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NICOSIA583
2007-07-12 05:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nicosia
Cable title:  

ELECTORAL HEAT ON, PAPADOPOULOS MOVES ON ONE-YEAR

Tags:  CY PGOV PREL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0162
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHNC #0583/01 1930526
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 120526Z JUL 07
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7981
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 4990
RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS 3884
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0894
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000583 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: CY PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL HEAT ON, PAPADOPOULOS MOVES ON ONE-YEAR
ANNIVERSARY OF JULY 8 AGREEMENT

REF: A. NICOSIA 579

B. 2006 NICOSIA 1088

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher for reason 1.5 (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000583

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: CY PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: ELECTORAL HEAT ON, PAPADOPOULOS MOVES ON ONE-YEAR
ANNIVERSARY OF JULY 8 AGREEMENT

REF: A. NICOSIA 579

B. 2006 NICOSIA 1088

Classified By: Ambassador Ronald L. Schlicher for reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: ROC President Tassos Papadopoulos and
Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat are likely to meet in
an attempt to "break through the stalemate" of their
agreement on July 8 of last year. In two July 5 letters sent
to the UN and forwarded to Talat, Papadopoulos called for two
separate, face-to-face meetings of the two leaders: one at
the UN Committee on Missing Persons (CMP) to evaluate its
work over the past year, and another to revisit the stalled
bicommunal agreement negotiated last summer by former UN
U/SYG for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari. Papadopoulos's
second letter included a proposal for fleshing out and
actually beginning the work of the bicommunal "working
groups" and "technical committees" of the July 8 agreement.
Talat accepted July 10 Papadopoulos's invitation to meet on
the latter but declined to meet at the CMP, believing such
would inappropriately politicize the missing persons issue.
The prospect of the two leaders meeting may finally be a step
forward on last summer's agreement, although the odds of the
two sides achieving genuine progress in any meetings remain
decidedly low. The best hope for progress on the UN track
lies in the new political topography of the February 2008
Presidential race in the ROC; with a genuine three-party race
underway, there is a possibility that the three candidates
may compete with each other to see who can do more to move
toward a genuine settlement negotiation. End Summary.

--------------
ONE YEAR LATER, NO RESULTS
--------------


2. (C) On July 8, 2006, UN U/SYG Gambari brokered an
agreement between Papadopoulos and Talat that committed each
community to working toward a possible Cyprus solution by
establishing "working groups" to prepare the ground for
settlement negotiations and "technical committees" for issues
of daily life (reftel B). The two leaders also agreed to
meet occasionally to review the work of the bicommunal groups
and committees. Fast forward one year, and the situation has

hardly changed. Papadopoulos and Talat have not met since
the agreement, with Papadopoulos refusing several meetings
proposed by Talat because, since the technical committees had
not met, there was "nothing to discuss." Despite dozens of
meetings of the tripartite coordination committee charged
with finding a way to implement the July 8 agreement, the
technical committees and working groups have failed to meet
or agree on terms of reference. Even the "coordination
committee," responsible for assigning the bicommunal bodies
their tasks, has been mired in disputes over committee
nomenclature and distinctions between daily life and
settlement matters, particularly with respect to property.
As recently as June 21, UN SRSG Michael Moller cut short a
meeting of the coordination committee due to fears that the
unconstructive process would further increase mistrust.
Moller's widely-reported rebuke of both sides at a UNFICYP
ceremony on July 5 (just before he received Papadopoulos's
letters) tells of UN exasperation with both sides' lack of
progress.


3. (C) Over the course of the past year, electoral
considerations have increasingly intruded on the prospects
for progress. UNFICYP DCM Wlodek Cibor speculated to
PolChief June 21 that neither community likely would concede
ground until after the election cycles of Turkey, Greece and
Cyprus have all concluded early next year. Papadopoulos's
candidacy for re-election is considered imminent, and the
lack of progress on the Cyprus issue already has played
prominently in other candidates' press and public statements
in the build-up to Cyprus,s February 2008 presidential
elections, including those of former coalition partner and
communist party AKEL's Demetris Christofias (reftel A).

--------------
PAPADOPOULOS'S PROPOSAL
--------------


4. (SBU) Coming just three days before the one-year
anniversary of the July 8 agreement, Papadopoulos's proposal
signals his view that a "new situation is necessary," given
the proven limitations of the coordination committee. The
first letter proposed a meeting with Talat at the UN
Anthropological Laboratory in the UN Buffer Zone to survey

NICOSIA 00000583 002 OF 003


the work of the CMP. The letter suggested that the meeting
at the CMP should be strictly humanitarian in nature, in line
with the previous bicommunal agreement to remove the issue
from the political arena, in order for the visit to "send an
even more positive message to the members of both
communities" on the prospects for reconciliation.


5. (SBU) The second letter called for an additional meeting
between Papadopoulos and Talat, under the auspices of the UN
SRSG, "with a desire to break through the stalemate" and "to
see real progress." The tendered plan calls for setting up
working groups concerning settlement issues on (1)
governance; (2) EU matters; (3) security; (4) territory; (5)
property; (6) economic matters; and (7) citizenship, aliens,
immigration and asylum. Technical committees on day-to-day
issues would be established for (1) crime and criminal
matters; (2) economic matters; (3) cultural heritage; (4)
crisis management; (5) humanitarian matters; (6) health
matters; and (7) environment. The proposal contains
provisions to avoid problems that may arise from the naming
of the groups by alternately identifying them by number. It
further grants each community preference in establishing one
working group and one technical committee, with all four
bodies to begin work concurrently within the next 10 days.

-------------- --
PAPADOP,S REAL AUDIENCE: GREEK CYPRIOT REACTION
-------------- --


6. (U) All major Greek Cypriot political parties applauded
Papadopoulos's proposal. Former coalition partner and
current rival AKEL hoped it would "mark the beginning of a
process in which both communities will exhibit good will."
Opposition DISY similarly welcomed the move, but noted the
one-year lag. Its deputy leader, Averof Neophytou, also
cautioned that the timing of the proposal could arouse
suspicions in the international community and by the Turkish
Cypriot side that any meeting is intent on serving
Papadopoulos's pre-election expediencies. The spokesman for
DISY-backed presidential candidate Ioannis Kasoulides
recounted that, just two weeks ago, the government had
scorned Kasoulides's call for a meeting between Papadopoulos
and Talat as "naive, dangerous, and superficial."

--------------
TALAT SEES A "RAY OF HOPE," WITH RESERVATIONS
--------------


7. (C) At a July 10 press conference, Talat accepted
Papadopoulos's proposal to revitalize the July 8 agreement as
"positive" and "a ray of hope to save the process," noting
Turkish Cypriot calls for such meetings over the past 10
months and accusing the Greek Cypriots of using delaying
tactics. However, Talat doubted one meeting would suffice to
cover all of the problems and suggested regular meetings to
overcome additional issues. The Turkish Cypriot leader
rejected outright the proposed meeting at the CMP, arguing
that, despite Papadopoulos's belief it could be strictly
humanitarian, the two leaders' status as political figures
would inherently politicize the issue and jeopardize the
CMP's recent successes. (Comment: The Turkish military in
the north is planning on holding a ceremony attendant to the
turnover of the remains of T/C missing on July 12; Talat is
slated to attend, but not to speak. We,ll see how the
ceremony goes, but the planned event does not bode well for
the effort to avoid politicization of the work of the CMP.
End comment).


8. (C) In private, Talat's spokesman Hasan Ercakica told
Poloff July 9 that the Turkish Cypriot leadership hoped the
proposed meeting would cause pro-solution Greek Cypriots to
"expect more meetings, including top-level, face-to-face
discussions supported by bicommunal projects, technical
commissions and confidence-building measures." However, the
Turkish Cypriots were skeptical of Papadopoulos's sincerity
in calling for the meetings, and many believed he was "merely
posturing" to show pro-solution Greek Cypriots that he is not
completely anti-solution. Even so, Ercakica saw "no harm"
from a leaders, meeting as it could generate at least some
energy for a solution.


9. (C) Though no Turkish Cypriot political parties have
issued official statements, Kibris and Yeni Duzen dailies,
which support a bicommunal solution and Talat's CTP,
expressed pleasure with the news of the proposal. On the
right, opposition UBP and DP have yet to acknowledge the

NICOSIA 00000583 003 OF 003


meeting offer. Commentators predict that UBP almost
certainly will see no reason for a meeting; DP likely will
not object. Predictably, ultra-nationalist newspaper Volkan
viewed the process as "a waste of time," laden with Greek
Cypriot "trickery."

--------------
--------------
COMMENT: WHATEVER TASSOS,S MOTIVATIONS, A NEW DYNAMIC IS
POSSIBLE
--------------
--------------


10. (C) Papadopoulos's gesture is likely a desire to kill a
whole flock of birds with just one stone. Aside from the
potential to inch forward on reconciliation, moving anywhere
on the stagnant July 8 agreement may distract some from
AKEL's and DISY,s criticism of Papadopoulos's settlement
approach. This could be especially beneficial to
Papadopoulos given AKEL's recent nomination of its own
candidate for the February 2008 presidential elections, a
decision that led to the breakup of the ruling coalition
(reftel A). Though Papadopoulos July 10 denied his proposal
was for pre-election purposes, the suddenness of his reversal
on the question of a leaders, meeting suggests at least some
consideration of the electoral atmosphere. His call for two
leaders' meetings also might ward off press and UN criticism,
both of which intensified approaching the one-year
anniversary of Gambari's visit. Turkish Cypriot fears that
Papadopoulos's proposal is disingenuous are not enough to
dissuade Talat from at least one meeting. However, a meeting
is unlikely to occur before July 16 for logistical reasons.
Talat will more likely try to push it back until after the
July 22 elections in Turkey, even though a first meeting
would probably not immediately address any substantial issues
leading Talat to have to consult with Ankara.


11. (C) Comment continued: All politics is local, and the
new Greek Cypriot internal political dynamic of a three-way
fight has spurred Papadopoulos to make these new moves. A
two-way race between Papadopoulos and Kasoulides would no
doubt have been a stale rehash of who voted "no" and who
voted "yes" in 2004. Now, however, with both Kasoulides and
former coalition partner Christofias berating his lack of
movement on CyProb issues, Papadopoulos needs to produce at
least a strong semblance of progress -- maybe even some real
progress -- on the UN track. The UN and international
community need to encourage a positive debate during the
election season, encouraging each candidate to outline his
ideas on how to do more and how to make more progress. To
nurture this dynamic, we will also need to enlist the help of
Greece, to get Talat off his distinctly negative vector of
the last year, and make sure that Ankara allows Talat some
space to engage in a UN process that is not ritual obeisance
to the Annan Plan. End comment.

SCHLICHER