AKEL CONGRESS GIVES GREEN LIGHT TO CYPRUS'S FIRST COMMUNIST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000579

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: AKEL CONGRESS GIVES GREEN LIGHT TO CYPRUS'S FIRST COMMUNIST
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, CREATES COMPETITIVE PRESIDENTIAL RACE



1. (SBU) Summary: In a historical first, coalition partner and
communist party AKEL decided at its July 8 congress to nominate its
own leader, Demetris Christofias, as presidential candidate, either
for the pro-government coalition parties jointly or on his own. The
decision signals the end of the road for the three-way coalition
since the other two partners, DIKO and EDEK, have already endorsed
President Tassos Papadopoulos's anticipated reelection bid.
Papadopoulos, trying to steal Christofias's platform, is on a spree
of new initiatives from the Cyprus issue to relief measures for the
poor. The immediate consequence of the two former partners becoming
election rivals will be the withdrawal of the four AKEL ministers
from the government, including Foreign Minister Giorgos Lillikas,
though he will likely take up the job of Papadopoulos's campaign
spokesman. As the presidential campaign gets under way, all three
main candidates appear to have equal chances to make it to the
second round of next February's elections. A brief biography of
Demetris Christofias begins in Para 14. End summary.

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First Communist Presidential Candidate
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2. (SBU) For the first time in the 47-year history of the Republic
of Cyprus, the country's strong communist party decided finally and
irrevocably to nominate its own leader to stand in next February's
presidential election. An overwhelming 92.7 percent majority of
AKEL delegates decided to propose Demetris Christofias as the joint
candidate of the AKEL-DIKO-EDEK coalition. Should its partners
disagree - and they do - AKEL will run independently. Though
President Tassos Papadopoulos has not as yet formally announced his
candidacy, the competent organs of DIKO and EDEK have already
decided to endorse his anticipated reelection bid. So, to keep
pretenses, AKEL will present its proposal to its partners before
anticlimactically announcing its real decision to go it alone.
Christofias will meet Papadopoulos and his former partners on July
10 to discuss the technicalities of the break up, which includes
first and foremost the withdrawal of the four AKEL ministers from
the government.

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Focusing on Cyprob Differences With Papadopoulos
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3. (SBU) Addressing his party congress, Christofias engaged only in
indirect criticism of Papadopoulos's handling of the Cyprus problem
and domestic policies--a smart choice, believes a veteran AKEL
official, since a full-fledged attack could only backfire
considering that AKEL participated in and consistently backed the
current administration for four-and-a-half years. In his speech,
Christofias placed the Cyprus issue at the top of his priorities and
"revealed" that he disagreed with Papadopoulos on numerous
occasions, both in private and at National Council meetings. He
blamed the Turkish Cypriot side's insistence on the Annan Plan for
the current stalemate but, at the same time, indicated that the
Greek Cypriot side could not afford to sit back and simply defend
its April 2004 "no." To prove his point, Christofias highlighted
several "worrying" developments, both external and internal, such as
EU insistence on direct trade, the German parliament resolution on
the lifting of the "isolation" of the Turkish Cypriots, the looming
danger of ECHR recognition of the Turkish Cypriot property
commission, and the growing anti-federation sentiments in the Greek
Cypriot community. Predicting that Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan
will come out with new initiatives on Cyprus if he emerges
victorious in Turkey's upcoming elections, Christofias stressed the
need for a flexible and pro-active approach that will either "open
the way for progress or expose the Turkish side's uncooperative
stance." He referred to Papadopoulos's negative reputation abroad
and within the Turkish Cypriot community, and argued that his
presidency could remedy this bias. On domestic policies, he gave
good marks to the current administration, but noted that AKEL had
higher expectations. His presidency would follow a socioeconomic
policy serving lower income groups and "resisting neo-liberal
tendencies," Christofias promised.


4. (SBU) Responding to his coalition partners' accusations that his
candidacy only helps conservative Ioannis Kasoulides's candidacy,
Christofias stressed that DISY was elected to power twice, in 1993
and 1998, not with AKEL's support but with the votes of DIKO and
EDEK. He described as repulsive any rumors that AKEL is conspiring
with Kasoulides, the Americans or the British, in order to get rid
of Papadopoulos and revive the Annan Plan. He further warned his
partners not to attempt to blame AKEL for the break-up of the
coalition and called on them to support his candidacy, either in the
first or the second round, in order to prevent DISY from climbing
back into power. He also rejected their accusations that he was
driven by personal ambition, saying that the AKEL decision was
purely political, and moreover, at 61, he pledged to serve only one
term if elected, faithful to AKEL regulations that call for
retirement from active political duty at the age of 65.

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Building Momentum Key to AKEL's Success
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5. (SBU) Christofias's most urgent goal is to rekindle the legendary
AKEL discipline and allegiance in order to ensure that he enters the
second round. The strong majority secured at the July 8 party
congress boosted Christofias's momentum started two months ago when
the party asked members to choose between Papadopoulos and
Christofias for president. Out of the 1,626 delegates present, 92.7
percent voted for Christofias; only 6.6 percent opted for a
continuation of the coalition under the presidency of Papadopoulos;
and less than one percent abstained. Of the 37 delegates that
addressed the congress, 24 argued in favor of Christofias, and 13
for Papadopoulos. In the end, though, all pledged to support
Christofias regardless of their individual votes.

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AKEL Decision Angers DIKO and EDEK, But Thrills DISY
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6. (SBU) Predictably, DIKO and EDEK reacted angrily to AKEL's July 8
decision, immediately launching fresh accusations that AKEL was
responsible for the dissolution of the coalition and for injecting
life into Kasoulides's listless candidacy. The two remaining
coalition parties focused their criticism on Christofias's remark
that foreigners and Turkish Cypriots are prejudiced against
Papadopoulos. They accused him of sending the message abroad that
Greek Cypriots are susceptible to pressure and are willing to even
change their president if foreigners and Turkey do not like him.


7. (SBU) DISY's Kasoulides concealed his excitement with a mellow
statement that the AKEL decision to put forward its own candidate
constituted democratic progress. At the same time, though, he noted
that Christofias's speech focused on the past and did not make any
new proposals for the future. A high-ranking DISY official told
Embassy officers that the breakup of the coalition opening of a
small road for Kasoulides, which "could be turned into an avenue" if
Kasoulides exhibited the necessary leadership in the campaign.


8. (SBU) Other possible cracks in Papadopoulos's support also
appeared, good news for Kasoulides. Disagreements broke out within
right-wing EVROKO despite the party's public statements several
weeks ago that it was "inclined" to endorse Papadopoulos's
candidacy. The party's Deputy Leader Nicos Koutsou argued that
EVROKO, which polled 5.75 percent in the 2006 parliamentary
elections, should not commit to any of the main candidates before
the second round of the election in order to save its bargaining
power. In contrast to earlier statements in support of
Papadopoulos, EVROKO leader Demetris Syllouris appeared to move
closer to that position, and in press statements on July 9 said the
breakup of the coalition had radically changed the election
outlook--i.e., his party would now be open to proposals from all the
candidates. Similarly, the Green Party, which received 2.0 percent
in 2006, had stated recently that it supported Papadopoulos's Cyprus
problem policy and was, therefore, very close to supporting his
candidacy, but now it is having second thoughts. A party official
told Emboff that there is a strong anti-Papadopoulos current within
the rank-and-file, and the prevailing view is to wait for AKEL's
move before making any final decision.

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Papadopoulos Attempts to Steal the Show
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9. (SBU) Anticipating this AKEL decision, Papadopoulos and his
campaign team planned a series of moves designed to appeal mainly to
AKEL's left-leaning supporters. As an opening gambit, Papadopoulos
announced July 4 a CYP 111 million (approx. USD 260 million) package
of social measures to benefit 112,000 citizens, mainly of lower
income groups such as pensioners, large families and people with
special needs (i.e. AKEL's national constituencies). Many of the
measures were proposed by AKEL two years ago but the Papadopoulos
administration turned them down, citing austerity measures necessary
for Cyprus's acceptance into the Eurozone.


10. (SBU) And on July 5, abandoning his persistent refusal to meet
Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat, Papadopoulos proposed not
one but two meetings with Talat: (1) to discuss the stalled July 8
process and (2) to visit together the UN Committee on Missing
Persons (CMP) Anthropological Laboratory. AKEL had long advocated a
meeting between the two leaders, but Papadopoulos repeatedly
rejected the call, arguing that a meeting would give the false
impression of progress.

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Lillikas: Shall I Stay or Shall I Go?
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11. (SBU) AKEL's scheduled meeting with its coalition partners and
Papadopoulos on July 10 to present the party decision sealed the
break-up of the three-party alliance. As government spokesman
Vassilis Palmas was quick to point out on July 8, AKEL will have to
withdraw its four ministers from the government, and the president
will immediately proceed to replace them. Among the four is Foreign
Minister Giorgos Lillikas, a leading AKEL member nominated by the
party to serve as government spokesman in the Papadopoulos
administration and later as Foreign Minister. A Papadopoulos
campaign insider told Emboff that Papadopoulos intended to appoint
one minister from the left, one from the far right, one from EVROKO,
and another one from the Green Party.


12. (SBU) All eyes, though, are focused on Foreign Minister
Lillikas, whose future stance remains unclear; for many voters (and
commentators) he is a barometer of the presidential election
campaign. A professional pollster and ambitious politician, Lillikas
is known for easily changing allegiances and successfully clinging
to power. Over the past two months he has vacillated between
staying in the government or leaving if Christofias and Papadopoulos
were both candidates. His final decision was to resign his
ministerial seat, but he has yet to clearly choose a side, though
the same Papadopoulos campaign insider claimed that Lillikas would
become Papadopoulos's campaign spokesman. Last week, Christofias
even barred Lillikas from attending a crucial AKEL central committee
meeting convened to finalize the proposal to the party congress, a
development that left little doubt that Lillikas will once again
jump ship, as he did with former President Vassiliou in 2003.
Shortly after the latter's failure to get reelected, Lillikas
abandoned Vassiliou's newly-formed party to join AKEL.

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Comment
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13. (SBU) Christofias's entry into the presidential race will tip
the balance of the debate in favor of a pro-active, pro-solution
policy on the Cyprus issue, now only half-heartedly advocated by
DISY and Kasoulides out of fear of attacks by the all-powerful
pro-government coalition. In his first televised press conference
as a candidate on July 9, Christofias clearly criticized
Papadopoulos's downright condemnation of the Annan Plan, sending the
message that he intends to stand up for AKEL's 2004 "soft no," i.e.,
requesting limited changes to specific aspects of the Plan but not
rejecting it in its entirety, which was the prevailing sentiment in
the pro-Papadopoulos camp. Watching the three main rivals try to
outbid each other to be more flexible on the Cyprus issue may well
be the changed scene in the months leading up to the presidential
elections, a direct result of Christofias's entry into this race.

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Bio Note
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14. (SBU) Christofias was born in 1946 at Kato Dikomo, a village in
Kyrenia district. His father was a construction worker and
Christofias joined the communist party at an early age. After
completion of his high school studies and his National Guard
service, he worked as an accounting clerk in a factory. In 1969,
AKEL sent him to Moscow, where he studied for two years at the
Institute of Social Science. In Moscow, he met "comrade" Elsi
Hiratou, whom he married in the summer of 1972. After graduation in
1971, Christofias continued his studies at the Soviet Academy for
Social Sciences, where he received a Ph.D. in History. He returned
to Cyprus in April 1974 and was employed by the youth organization
of AKEL, EDON. Shortly afterwards he was elected General Organizing
Secretary of EDON and later its General Secretary, a position he

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held until 1987. In 1982 he was elected to the Central Committee of
AKEL. Following the death of long-time AKEL General Secretary
Ezekias Papaioannou in 1988, Christofias was elected General
Secretary of the party. His election caused a rift, however, that

SIPDIS
resulted in the expulsion of several leading figures of the
communist party. In June 2001, Christofias was elected President of
the House of Representatives with the votes of his communist party,
centrist DIKO and socialist EDEK. He was reelected in June 2006.
In the late 1990s, Christofias faced serious health problems. In
1999, he underwent heart surgery and a kidney transplant.

SCHLICHER