FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER KASOULIDES ENTERS THE PRESIDENTIAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000525

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER KASOULIDES ENTERS THE PRESIDENTIAL
RACE

Ref: Nicosia 136


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ioannis Kasoulides, the Cypriot foreign minister
during the second Glafcos Clerides administration (1998-2003) and a
leading member of the Democratic Rally party (DISY),announced June
13 that he would run as an independent in the February 2008
presidential elections. Before a packed house at his kickoff event,
Kasoulides revealed that his top campaign priorities were to
convince voters of his freedom from political party ties -- in order
to attract voters from across the political spectrum -- and to clear
himself of the stigma of having supported the 2004 Annan Plan
reunification effort. While DISY's endorsement is certain, its
leaders chose not to attend the opening rally, lest their presence
betray Kasoulides's carefully-cultivated image as an independent.
Critics of this strategy warn that the candidate risks losing the
solid support of DISY's rank-and-file with such a strategy, however.
Though well-attended and superbly organized, Kasoulides's "coming
out" lacked buzz; he will need to work harder to convince voters
that a vote for him is not a wasted ballot. A brief biography of
Ioannis Kasoulides begins in Para 9. END SUMMARY.

Turning attention to the future
--------------


2. (SBU) Kasoulides's announcement surprised no one; since 2006,
his name had circulated as the likely opposition standard-bearer,
and the candidate himself informed the Ambassador in February of his
intentions (Reftel). At that meeting, however, Kasoulides revealed
he would announce in March. Likely in hopes of increasing his
then-low polling, in recent months the former FM has conducted
extensive citizen outreach, all the while dodging inquiries
regarding the commencement of his formal campaign. On June 1,
Nicosia dailies carried news that Kasoulides would announce June

13.


3. (U) In the same National Fairgrounds exhibition hall that in
July 2006 temporarily had housed thousands of American evacuees from
Lebanon -- this time packed mostly with well-groomed youth and
devoid of recognizable political figures -- Kasoulides called on
members of all political parties to join him in a civic coalition
"to transform Cyprus into a 21st century European country." He
appeared to have designed his speech to shift attention from the
past and spur hope for a more successful and optimistic future in
which the people, not the political parties, would play protagonist
roles. Aware his biggest challenge was to draw supporters from all
political parties, not just DISY, Kasoulides avoided criticizing
coalition parties DIKO, AKEL, and EDEK. Instead, he blamed RoC
President Tassos Papadopoulos personally for the ills plaguing the
country, both domestic and relating to the Cyprus problem.


4. (U) Kasoulides accused Papadopoulos of intentionally "freezing
the political picture" on April 24, 2004, the date of the Annan Plan
referendum, in order to keep the people divided into the "yes" and
"no" camps and exploit them accordingly. He charged that under
Papadopoulos's presidency, Cyprus's image abroad had suffered to the
point that it was seen almost as a third-world country. On domestic
issues, Kasoulides criticized the administration's handling of
education and job creation, of great importance to Cypriot youth.
His remark that "yesterday's solutions cannot answer tomorrow's
questions" drew wild applause from the crowd.

A Promise to Make the Annan Plan History
--------------


5. (U) Aware his pro-Annan Plan stance in 2004 would become his
opponents' main weapon during the campaign, Kasoulides addressed the
issue by attempting to appeal simultaneously to both "yes" and "no"
camps. Without appearing defensive, he proudly declared that his
position on the Annan Plan was public record. On the other hand, he
promised he would not revive the UN-brokered initiative if elected
president, since Greek Cypriots had rejected it by a large margin.


6. (U) Kasoulides stressed the urgency of fresh thinking on the
Cyprus issue and outlined the four pillars of his proposed policy:
unity of the people, restoration of Cyprus' credibility abroad via a
campaign to convince outsiders that Greek Cypriots wanted an early
solution; "correct" utilization of Turkey's relations with the
European Union and its desires for accession; and the immediate
pursuit of a solution that would address and respond to the people's
concerns and expectations. He fretted that the pro-partition slogan
"Greek Cypriots on this side, Turkish Cypriots on the other," was
gaining ground, especially among young people. Playing to fears of
a demographic shift on the island in favor of ethnic Turks, owing to
perceived, uncontrolled settlement from Turkey, the reality might
soon become "Greek Cypriots on this side and Turkish Cypriots all
over," Kasoulides predicted, a situation analogous to the Christian
minority's in Lebanon.

Early Impressions: Many Worried
--------------


7. (SBU) The absence of DISY leaders on the stage surprised no one,
since the party had agreed to limit its visibility in hopes of
helping to solidify Kasoulides's claim of non-partisanship. Most
political contacts expect the party will endorse Kasoulides's
candidacy later this summer. Some DISY officials do not agree with
the candidate's decision to keep DISY at arm's length, however.
They warn that, with Kasoulides's political history, he cannot fool
voters with claims of true independence. Further, they worry that
the candidate, by turning his back on his roots and depriving DISY
officials of front-line campaign roles, risks losing the support of
the party's base.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Kasoulides's June 13 debut represented a solid
first step. By Cypriot standards, it was superbly organized and
fresh, and the candidate appeared confident and well-prepared to
fend off criticisms his opponents undoubtedly will lob as the
campaign progresses. At the same time, however, Kasoulides's speech
was low on inspiration, his hand-picked audience attentive but
reserved. Unless he can convince voters that he has a realistic
prospect of winning the election, Kasoulides will not be able to
secure even the solid support of his own party, which polled just
over 30 percent in the May 2006 parliamentary elections. In such a
scenario, the likelihood of him reaching the second round of the
projected Kasoulides - Papadopoulos - AKEL leader Dimitris
Christofias presidential race seems skimpy.

Biographical Information
--------------


9. (U) Ioannis Kasoulides was born in Nicosia in 1948. He studied
medicine in France and specialized in geriatrics in London
hospitals. He became active in politics at a very young age. While
studying in France, Kasoulides founded and was the president of the
Federation of Cypriot Students in France. He was elected president
of NEDISY (Youth Organization of the Democratic Rally (DISY)) from
1990 to 1993. He was elected to the House of Representatives in

1991. In 1992, Kasoulides participated in a four-week International
Visitor program on the subject of the "U.S. Presidential Campaign."
A year later, he resigned his parliamentary seat to become spokesman
for the Clerides presidential administration. He was appointed
Minister of Foreign Affairs in late 1997, just before the beginning
of Clerides's second term.


10. (U) Kasoulides contested the leadership of DISY in May 2003
following the defeat of Clerides in the February 2003 presidential
elections. He lost to Nicos Anastassiades, securing only 45 percent
of the vote. In June 2004 he was elected to the European
Parliament, garnering the highest number of votes of any Cypriot
candidate. Kasoulides is married to Emy, an anesthesiologist, and
has one daughter, Joanna. He comes from an old and highly regarded
Nicosia family. Kasoulides is socially and politically
well-connected and is generally respected by his colleagues and the
public at large. He speaks fluent English and French.