FRINGE CANDIDATE SUPPORTS ANNAN PLAN REVIVAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NICOSIA 000489

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: FRINGE CANDIDATE SUPPORTS ANNAN PLAN REVIVAL



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Costas Themistocleous, a former Minister of
Agriculture in the Glafkos Clerides administration (1998-2003),will
run in next year's presidential elections, "not to win, but to tell
Cypriots my version of the 'truth' about the Cyprus problem."
Themistocleous warns that Cyprus is at the brink of partition, which
can be averted only if the two sides engage in intensive talks to
revive and revise the 2004 Annan Plan reunification initiative. As
one of few openly pro-solution politicians, he is cognizant a
majority of Greek Cypriots will discount and/or disparage his
pro-Annan stance, but seems not to care a whit. With little to lose
-- Cyprus's political class already has marginalized, if not
ostracized Themistocleous -- he will delight in this gadfly role.
Lacking campaign cash and access to the media, however, and offering
an unpopular message, his chances of shaping the debate look lower
than his likely voter tally. A short biography of Costas
Themistocleous commences in Paragraph 10. END SUMMARY.

Current Policies Untenable, Brought Disaster
--------------


2. (SBU) While the main would-be presidential candidates are
competing on who will bury the Annan Plan deeper, Costas
Themistocleous, Minister of Agriculture in the Clerides
administration and former leader of the United Democrats (EDI),has
made the rejected UN plan the banner of his presidential campaign.
He announced his candidacy April 24, the third anniversary of the
referendum on the Annan Plan, together with a desperate call for
action to prevent the island's permanent partition. Believing that
Greek Cypriots had rejected the Annan Plan mainly because they were
misled by their leaders' argument -- that after Cyprus acceded to
the EU, the Greek Cypriot side would have more leverage to push for
a "European" CyProb solution -- Themistocleous has issued a
manifesto designed to prove this assertion false and warn that
continuation of the current hard-line policies will lead only to
permanent partition.


3. (SBU) Themistocleous May 31 not only welcomed the chance to
speak to Embassy officials, but insisted on meeting at the Chancery
- "I'm not afraid of being seen here, like most politicians," he
boasted. At the get-together, he outlined his Annan Plan-centric
platform, contrasting how Cyprus might look now, had the "yes" vote
prevailed, with the current situation on the island. By April 2007,
Themistocleous asserted, the last installment of Greek Cypriot
territory would have been returned, the influx of Turkish settlers
would have ended, all Christian places of worship would have been
opened, and a maximum of 6000 Turkish soldiers would have remained
on the island. Additionally, half of the territory of the British
Sovereign Base Areas would have reverted to the "United Cyprus
Republic."


4. (SBU) Cypriots' rejection of the Annan Plan had prevented these
positive developments from occurring, Themistocleous lamented. As a
direct result, majorities in both communities now considered the de
facto division of the island acceptable, and the prospect of
permanent partition was gaining support both locally and abroad. EU
institutions and other international players already recognized
Turkish Cypriot authorities indirectly, and frequently were inviting
them to various international fora. The Turkish Cypriot property
commission stood a good chance of being accepted as an effective
domestic remedy, potentially trumping a favored G/C tack of
attacking Turkey's "occupation" of north Cyprus through the property
cases at the ECHR. Finally, G/C properties north of the Buffer Zone
were being developed so quickly, that in three to four years, "there
would be no property issue left to discuss

Finding the Good in the Annan Plan
--------------

5. (SBU) To reverse course and prevent permanent partition of
Cyprus, Themistocleous proposed resumption of negotiations on the
Annan Plan. Talks would be closed-ended, taking place between March
and August 2008. His plan culminated in new referenda, to be
presented to both communities the following fall. The Greek Cypriot
side's goal should be to improve certain aspects of the Annan Plan,
not to re-write it completely, which the Turkish Cypriots would
dismiss out of hand anyway. Papadopoulos had failed to seek such
revisions in the last round of the 2004 talks, Themistocleous
fretted; the G/C community must not miss another opportunity.


6. (SBU) He was well-aware his message resonated with only a small
minority of Greek Cypriots, and sadly remarked that, under the
current administration, his compatriots had come to prefer partition
to reunification. Themistocleous expected to garner 1-2 percent of
the popular vote in February. In this extremely adverse climate,
however, an actual result falling on the high side of the range
would mark success.

Some Races Are Won by Just 1-2 Percent
--------------


7. (SBU) The Cypriot election system requires an absolute majority
for the election of the president, and many races require a second
round seven days later. Before the runoff, failed candidates, small
parties and even influential personalities suddenly acquire great
importance and engage in hard bargaining with the two top candidates
in order to trade their support for cabinet seats or other
high-ranking positions.


8. (SBU) Front-runners seem unlikely to be knocking on
Themistocleous's door come February, however, owing mainly to his
unpopular pro-solution bent. Further, in our meeting he proved
unable or unwilling to explain how he might "shop" his vote haul to
runoff candidates in hopes of influencing their platforms. His
supporters, Themistocleous claimed, were independent thinkers,
pro-solution and smart enough to make their own decisions.

Comment:
--------------

9. (SBU) Not endorsing his preferred runoff candidate appears a
wise move for Themistocleous. His support likely would function
more as a kiss of death than helping hand anyway, since Annan
supporters in Greek Cyprus currently trail undertakers and tax
collectors in popularity. Additionally, Themistocleous's tendency
to speak his mind, coupled with the current establishment's
relentless defamation campaign, have made him a political outcast.
Nonetheless, while other moderates and pro-solution politicians are
laying low or adjusting positions to respond to the hard-line public
sentiment, Themistocleous has shown admirable courage in publicly
defending views now synonymous with treason. All for naught,
unfortunately. End Comment.

Biographical Information
--------------


10. (U) Costas Themistocleous was born in 1949. He studied
Economics and Political Science at the University of Athens, and did
graduate studies in Economic Development in London. Themistocleous
began his professional career as an employee of the Communist party
AKEL, first in London and later in Cyprus as a journalist for the
AKEL newspaper HARAVGHI. In 1982, he joined the AKEL-affiliated
labor organization PEO and was placed in charge of international
relations and relations with Turkish Cypriot labor organizations.


11. (U) In 1990, Themistocleous broke with AKEL and helped form
ADESOK, the Socialist Democratic Renewal Party. Soon after, he won
the vice-presidency of ADESOK, holding the position until December
1996 when the party merged with the Free Democrats Movement of
former President George Vassiliou. He was elected General Secretary
of the new party formed out of the merger, the United Democrats.
Themistocleous was appointed Minister of Agriculture, Natural
Resources and Environment after President Clerides's re-election in
February 1998, serving until the end of the administration in 2003.



12. (U) In 2006, he resigned from his post as General Secretary of
the United Democrats when his statement that Greek Cypriots should
stop using derogatory terms such as "pseudo" when referring to
Turkish Cypriot officials caused an uproar. Earlier, Themistocleous
was embroiled in controversy when the pro-government, sensationalist
tabloid "Pontiki" published a copy of a check for 30,000 CYP issued
in Themistocleous's name and signed by two Turkish Cypriot
businessmen. His explanations that the money was to be used as the
capital for the first joint G/C-T/C company legally registered in
the RoC fell in deaf ears. Together, the two "scandals" tarnished
his and the United Democrats' reputations.


13. (SBU) Themistocleous has written numerous articles on the
Cyprus problem and is an ardent supporter of rapprochement between
the Turkish- and Greek-Cypriot communities. He has participated in
many bi-communal seminars and conflict resolution workshops in
Cyprus and abroad. In 1995, he participated in the Fulbright
Commission-funded Public Policy Leader's Workshop, known as
"Coolfont", in Virginia, U.S.A. Costas Themistocleous is married to
Avgi, a high school art teacher, and has three children. He speaks
English well.