AKEL FERMENT DENTS SENSE OF INEVITABLE PAPADOPOULOS SECOND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NICOSIA 000475

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL CY
SUBJECT: AKEL FERMENT DENTS SENSE OF INEVITABLE PAPADOPOULOS SECOND
TERM

Ref: Nicosia 426


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As late as mid-May, Communist party AKEL looked
certain to back the re-election of Cypriot President Tassos
Papadopoulos and the continuation of the three-party (AKEL, EDEK,
DIKO) governing coalition. Papadopoulos likely considered the
Communists' support a given when he revealed May 15 that he would
stand in the February 2008 election regardless of whether AKEL or
the other parties had blessed his decision. The President's display
of confidence -- or arrogance, some say -- seems to have unleashed
an unintended consequence that has the island abuzz. In a first,
AKEL's Central Committee May 21 tabled the possible presidential
candidacy of Secretary General Dimitris Christofias, tasking its
base organizations with choosing between Papadopoulos and
Christofias as AKEL's preferred standard-bearer (the results are not
binding, however; the final decision will not come until the party
congress in early July.)


2. (SBU) Pundits' first reaction was to characterize AKEL's
about-face as a tactical maneuver aimed at securing further
concessions from Papadopoulos in his second term. Developments
since -- a high-profile May 30 meeting between Papadopoulos and
Christofias, public bickering between DIKO and AKEL leadership, and
preliminary polling that showed Christofias winning over 85 percent
of party voters -- would seem to disprove this theory, however.
Regardless of AKEL's final decision, a bland presidential race
suddenly seems spicier, and the once-strong sense of the
inevitability of a second Papadopoulos term has been shaken. END
SUMMARY.

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Backed Into a Corner, AKEL Fights Back
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3. (SBU) Two days after receiving partner EDEK's endorsement, and
assured of his own DIKO party's support in February, Tassos
Papadopoulos revealed May 15 his intention to seek re-election. The
President's decision, purportedly taken without first consulting
AKEL, left Communist leaders red-faced and seething (Reftel).
Further, many rank-and-filers questioned how many more embarrassing
moments the future might hold for their party, should AKEL support
deliver Papadopoulos a second term. Prominent editorialists
questioned whether the President might even dump the Communists once
he took office in February, much like former Cypriot President
Spyros Kyprianou did to his partners after winning re-election in

1983.


4. (SBU) Reacting to the party base's dissatisfaction and dismay
over the President's intentions, AKEL's Central Committee decided
May 21 to inaugurate a grass-roots debate at the party's 600-plus
local branches, to culminate in a run-off between Christofias and
Papadopoulos to select the party's 2008 nominee. This is the first
time since Cyprus's independence in 1960 that AKEL formally has
considered entering its own candidate in a presidential election.
Party officials repeatedly have stressed, however, that the result
of the internal vote will not be binding for the Central Committee,
which will meet again in late June to formulate its official
candidate proposal for the July 8 Congress. The Congress, AKEL's
supreme organ, will then vote to accept or reject the Central
Committee's choice (historically, in true Communist fashion, Central
Committee proposals are adopted with nearly 100 percent of the
Congress vote.)

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Early Reaction? Skepticism
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5. (U) The media and most political parties initially viewed the
AKEL move with skepticism. AKEL's deeply-rooted tendency to avoid
risks, coupled with continual reiterations by party officials that
their ultimate goal was to preserve the three-party coalition and
stop DISY from climbing back into power, suggested the party was
simply setting the scene for a hard bargain with Papadopoulos. Such
a tack would pressure the President to agree to an election
manifesto tailor-made for AKEL's needs -- heavy on social benefits
for the middle and working classes, for example -- and help silence
those dissidents unhappy with the President's hard-line management
of the Cyprus Problem (and AKEL's support thereof.)


6. (SBU) Former Interior Minister and current Mayor of Limassol
Andreas Christou, a long-time AKEL member, disagreed with this
widely-held view. In a meeting with Embassy officials May 23,
Christou claimed that, irrespective of its public insistence that
the bases' vote was non-binding, the Central Committee would have no
choice but to adopt the outcome, especially if it indicated
overwhelming support for Christofias. Supporters of the General
Secretary's candidacy fell into three separate groups, the Mayor

SIPDIS
believed: those like Christou himself who disagreed with
Papadopoulos's Cyprus Problem policy, those who believed that AKEL
had paid a high electoral cost for sharing power with DIKO, and
those who simply felt it was Christofias's turn to be elected
president. Together, they comprised 70 percent of the party base,
Christou calculated.

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Intended or Not, Candidacy Gathers Steam
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7. (SBU) The tone of general scuttlebutt and media reporting had
changed by the long "Cataclismos" weekend (May 26-28),lending more
credence to an independent AKEL run for the presidency. A former
Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary (D-equivalent) with reputable
sources in AKEL told us May 25 that early results from the base
elections showed Christofias garnering between 85 and 100 percent of
the vote. The General Secretary's candidacy was all but assured,
our contact argued, since AKEL leadership could not ignore such a
clear mandate -- especially since the rank-and-file had the power to
elect and remove Central Committee members.


8. (SBU) Opposition daily "Politis" has become Christofias's head
cheerleader in recent days. Believing his candidacy the only manner
of preventing five more years of Tassos Papadopoulos, "Politis"
journalists have dwelled on the inconceivability of the Central
Committee siding with the President in 2008, against the will of
AKEL's base. Unnamed, high-ranking AKEL sources allegedly told the
paper May 26 that officials have tired of being patronized by the
coalition's smaller, centrist parties. "What is at stake is the
cohesion of AKEL," the source concluded. One particularly
optimistic "Politis" story May 27 argued that Christofias would
defeat either Papadopoulos or DISY-supported candidate Ioannis
Kasoulides in a Round 2 runoff, claiming AKEL would secure the
backing of DISY (if the runoff opponent were the President) or DIKO
(if Christofias faced Kasoulides),respectively. Finally, the paper
May 27 published unofficial results from a number of AKEL's
greater-Nicosia base organizations, showing Christofias winning
approximately 90 percent of the vote.


9. (SBU) AKEL Spokesman and MP Andros Kyprianou, long-considered a
strong proponent of a Christofias candidacy, was admittedly evasive
in a May 30 discussion with Emboffs. "You'll know our decision July
8," he chuckled. Dismissing those who believed AKEL had tabled the
General Secretary's candidacy in anger over a perceived Papadopoulos
slight, Kyprianou asserted that the Political Bureau had begun
deliberating the move a year ago. Similarly, he discounted the
reliability of "Politis's" electoral figures, noting that barely ten
percent of the vote had come in.


10. (SBU) Under party by-laws, the Central Committee was free to
formulate its proposal to the Congress as it saw fit. That said,
Kyprianou, too, doubted the body would overturn a 90-10 or 80-20
vote in order to recommend backing Papadopoulos. A Christofias
candidacy would spell the end of the three-party coalition, he
added, with AKEL ordering its four ministers to resign. Reacting
defensively to a query over the likelihood of dissension within AKEL
ranks over abandoning the coalition -- since many higher-ups would
lose cushy jobs and other perks -- Kyprianou retorted that he had
gained nothing from the party tie-up. "There is no distance between
the base and the leadership," he insisted.

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"Summit" Sheds Little Light
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11. (U) The media predicted fireworks at the May 30
Papadopoulos-Christofias meeting and questioned whether the AKEL
leader would reveal his future plans to the President. Christofias
was in no mood to satisfy reporters' demands for information at the
conclusion of the gathering, however, revealing only that the men
"had discussed the gamut of issues." Both "Politis" and
pro-government "Phileleftheros" ran similar headlines May 31,
explaining that AKEL sought a temporary "velvet divorce" -- in other
words, its decision to run Christofias against Papadopoulos in Round
1 should not keep the coalition partners from rejoining forces in
Round 2, should only one of them advance.


12. (U) "Velvety" could hardly describe the atmospherics at a
televised May 30 gathering of coalition figures Yiorgos Colocassides
(DIKO),Andros Kyprianou, and Yiorgos Barnabas (EDEK). Their
discussion over various Round 1 / Round 2 scenarios quickly
descended into histrionics, chiefly between the DIKO and AKEL
representatives. Kyprianou urged his coalition mates to cooperate
primarily to ensure that opposition DISY not return to power.
Responding, Colocassides claimed DIKO was focused on offense --
cooperating to elect the coalition's chosen candidate -- and not on
defending the office from any one party.

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Comment:
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13. (SBU) Developments of the last ten days have shaken the
widely-held belief that AKEL's support for Tassos Papadopoulos was
iron-clad. According to Mayor Christou, his party "finally will do
the proper thing," assuaging the majority of rank-and-file members
who never accepted the utility of the AKEL-DIKO marriage and "who
want no link to the politician who could be responsible for the
permanent partition of the island." Undoubtedly, AKEL's base will
offer a strong vote of confidence in leader Christofias, presenting
the Central Committee with a difficult decision: ignore the masses'
wishes in order to back a candidate (Papadopoulos) who, despite his
unpopularity in AKEL circles, offers sure victory in February, or
honor the base's wishes to put forth an AKEL candidate who still
appears unelectable in the second round. We recently learned that a
north Nicosia university purchased a $10 million IBM supercomputer,
allegedly the 57th most powerful machine in the world. It could get
a lot of use figuring the possible permutations of the suddenly
interesting race. One thing is fairly clear, however: a genuine
three-party contest will undermine the air of inevitability that
Tassos Papadopoulos is a shoo-in for a second five-year term.

SCHLICHER