PM CENSURE: TIDE TURNS AGAINST HAMA?

C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 000756

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR AF/W; PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2012
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KCOR NG
SUBJECT: PM CENSURE: TIDE TURNS AGAINST HAMA?

REF: NIAMEY 737

Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER ZACH HARKENRIDER FOR REASON 1.4 (B)


1. (C) As reported reftel, the Nigerien National Assembly has
been considering a motion of censure against the government
of Prime Minister Hama Amadou since Saturday. After two days
of suspension, the Assembly re-convened this afternoon.
Mission contacts indicate that the ground may have shifted
considerably in the interval. Senior military officers close
to the Prime Minister told post Defense Attach today that
they were seriously concerned that the PM would fall. Some
political contacts inform us that defections from the ruling
MNSD party and its principal ally, the CDS, are planned, and
that they will be sufficient to topple Amadou. The
Constitutional Court shot down an MNSD attempt to question
the constitutionality of the censure motion. Most
cryptically, and perhaps most significantly, Post learned
today that President Tandja -- thought to be in Abuja for the
Nigerian Presidential inauguration and a Lake Chad Basin
Commission meeting -- had not traveled at all. All of these
auguries suggest that PM Amadou may be on much thinner ice
than initially believed.


2. (C) While senior officers interviewed by DATT seemed
genuinely concerned that the PM and his government would not
survive the censure vote, none suggested that the military
would intervene in the process in any way. President Tandja,
a close friend of Nigerian President Obasanjo, had been
scheduled to go to Abuja on Monday to chair a meeting of the
Lake Chad Basin Commission. Most observers assumed that he
would remain on in Abuja for the inauguration, if only to
lend international legitimacy to his ally Obasanjo's favored
candidate. Instead, the President sent a senior minister (and
CDS loyalist) to both events in his place.


3. (U) In an opinion handed down today, the Constitutional
Court validated the opposition's censure motion and the way
in which it was brought. Apparently none of the objections to
the motion raised by the MNSD Deputies (reftel) were upheld.
Debate re-started at 1500 today. Given the amount of time
devoted to debate Post does not anticipate a vote on the
censure motion until late this evening at the earliest.


4. (C) Tandja's role is unclear. Different mission sources
have claimed different things: some, that the President is
moving to destroy his powerful PM and replace him with a more
pliable candidate before seeking a (unconstitutional) third
term for himself; others, that Tandja is quietly working to
shore Hama up. DAO contacts suggested that, were the PM to
fall, President Tandja might appoint the President of the
Nigerien Chamber of Commerce, Ibrahim Iddi Ango, as the next
Prime Minister.


5. (C) COMMENT: The mention of Ango's name reinforces the
impression that Tandja is seeking to replace Hama with a
broadly acceptable political neophyte. A Hausa from Zinder
region, his candidacy may be construed as a sop to National
Assembly and CDS President Mahamane Ousmane (another Zinder
Hausa). At the same time, Ango has some family ties to a
previous military ruler, Ibrahim Mainassara Bare, and his RDP
party (a ruling coalition partner). However, Ango has no
political base of his own, and in spite of his prominent
economic position (head of one of Niger's largest insurance
companies and its major bus company among other ventures) he
is not directly associated with any political party. At the
same time, rumors that Tandja had sent a delegation of
"elders" to shore up CDS support for the PM are circulating.
This suggests a very different role the President may, in
fact, be playing. Post will report additional developments
septel. END COMMENT.
ALLEN