NIGER: A PESSIMISTIC ASSESSMENT OF GON-TUAREG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NIAMEY 000625

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017
TAGS: MOPS PGOV PREL CASC EMIN NG
SUBJECT: NIGER: A PESSIMISTIC ASSESSMENT OF GON-TUAREG
RELATIONS, FROM THE MAN IN THE MIDDLE

REF: (A) NIAMEY 616 (B) NIAMEY 607

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Classified By: Ambassador Bernadette M. Allen, reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Mohamed Anacko, the man responsible for
implementing the 1995 agreement ending the Tuareg rebellion,
fears that President Tandja's desire for a military solution
to the recent Tuareg uprising risks turning it into a full
fledged rebellion that could affect the entire region. He
condemned recent Tuareg attacks in northern Niger, but said
the Tuaregs have valid grievance and the GON should negotiate
with them rather than dismiss them as bandits and drug
traffickers. He placed little faith in Khaddafi's mediation
efforts, and thought the Algerians could do better. End
Summary.


2. (C) High Commissioner for Peace Restoration Mohamed Anacko
was the leader of one of the Tuareg rebel groups that
eventually reached a peace agreement with the GON in 1995.
His current job consists of trying to ensure that the peace
agreement holds. With the recent attacks on GON security
forces by Tuareg dissidents, he is caught between a
government that wants to brand the dissidents as bandits and
drug traffickers, and his former colleagues who demand
political, economic, security and social concessions from
Niamey. He offered a pessimistic assessment of the situation
in a May 2 meeting with the Ambassador and DCM.


3. (C) Ambassador Allen began the meeting by expressing her
concern about recent security events, which she said had
prompted the Embassy to warn American citizens against
traveling north of Agadez. She asked if the government was
negotiating with the Tuareg dissidents to try to resolve the
situation.


4. (C) Anacko condemned the dissident Tuareg group's attacks,
but rejected labeling the group as bandits. He dismissed
Tandja's recent effort to paint the dissident group as drug
smugglers (ref A) by saying that drug smugglers may have used
the Tuaregs, but if the GON is serious about fighting drugs,
it should go to the source. He said that he has urged
President Tandja to negotiate with the dissident Tuaregs.


5. (C) Anacko feared that Tandja seeks a military solution.
The Nigerien military is weak now, but the government is
negotiating with China for aircraft and arms. Those could
arrive as early as June, and might prompt the government to
launch an offensive. Any aerial bombing of Tuaregs would
result in considerable civilian casualties, and possibly even
a "genocide," according to Anacko.


6. (C) Anacko said that he has talked to Tandja by phone,
most recently on April 27, but the President has refused to
meet with him in person. Tandja asked Anacko to go to the
north to resolve the issue, but Anacko said that was
impossible because of the security situation. Similarly, the
dissidents would not feel safe traveling to Niamey or Agadez.
A group of the Tuareg dissidents recently met in Libya with
Kahaddafi, who will soon send emissaries to Niamey to relay
the Tuareg concerns. Anacko had little faith in Khaddafi's
mediation, however. He said that Algeria would be better
positioned to deal with the matter. It is run by a real
government rather than one man, and is therefore better
positioned to follow through on agreements.


7. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about how the
recent spike in uranium prices might contribute to the
conflict, Anacko complained that fewer than 5 percent of the
mining companies' Nigerien employees are Tuareg. The mining
companies even hire drivers from the south, and Chinese
companies bring in Chinese laborers, whom Anacko believes are
prisoners. France is displeased with Niger because it
previously had a monopoly on uranium and other mining, but
French companies only won four of 19 new mining concessions.
Canada and China won many of the new concessions. The new
mining law provides that 15% of mineral revenues go to the
communities where the mines are, but Anacko said that is not
enough.


8. (C) Anacko said he knows all the dissident leaders well,
and talks to them every day. The other ex-combatants with
whom Anacko works in Niamey are becoming frustrated with the
government's approach to the issue. Anacko referred
favorably to the recent agreement between Tuaregs and the
Malian government that gave the Tuareg's responsibility for
security in northern Mali.

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9. (C) Anacko warned that the dissidents are currently few in
number, but if the GON doesn't address their grievances they
could become a popular movement resulting in a full fledged
rebellion which could spread beyond Niger. Anacko said that
ethnic Toubous in the east had supplied the land mines used
by the Tuaregs in the north (ref b). He noted a recent
incident involving Mohamid Arabs in Diffa (southeastern
Niger),and said they may join forces with the Tuaregs.
They, in turn, are reportedly related to the Jinjaweed
militia in Darfur. Former supporters of President Barre are
reportedly involved. AQIM may be in touch with the Tuaregs.
Anacko stressed that these groups do not have any common
ideology or objective, but they may find it advantageous to
cooperate with each other.


10. (C) Anacko agreed with the Embassy's warden message; the
north is not a safe place now.


ALLEN