Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NIAMEY1237
2007-10-02 14:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Niamey
Cable title:  

NIGER: IS TANDJA SEEKING A THIRD TERM?

Tags:  PGOV NG 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHNM #1237 2751427
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 021427Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NIAMEY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3810
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 001237 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2012
TAGS: PGOV NG
SUBJECT: NIGER: IS TANDJA SEEKING A THIRD TERM?

Classified By: Donald W. Koran, DCM, reasons 1.4 (b/d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L NIAMEY 001237

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2012
TAGS: PGOV NG
SUBJECT: NIGER: IS TANDJA SEEKING A THIRD TERM?

Classified By: Donald W. Koran, DCM, reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (SBU) There are signs that President Tandja may seek to
stay in office beyond the end of his current term in 2009:

-- He has put a growing number of government activities under
his "Presidential Special Program" and is increasing the
amount of time the government-controlled media gives to those
activities. (The Presidential Special Program is funded with
government resources freed up by Niger's debt relief. It
funds community projects such as the construction of schools
and clinics, but is not handled as part of the normal
government budget process.)

-- He has further concentrated power in the presidency
following the ouster of former Prime Minister Hama Amadou in
June. The new Prime Minister, Seini Oumarou, does not have
the same stature as Amadou and many of the issues that had
previously been handled by the Prime Minister are now handled
by the President. Key Ministers (Foreign Affairs, Interior,
Justice and Defense) are widely believed to report directly
to the President.

-- Tandja's supporters appear to be trying to wrestle control
of the ruling MNSD party apparatus from allies of former
Prime Minister, current head of the MNSD, and likely future
presidential candidate, Hama Amadou.

-- There are rumors that Tandja has initiated a review of
possible constitutional amendments, including the revision of
article 36 which says the President can only be re-elected
once.


2. (U) Amendments to the Nigerien constitution require
approval by 3/4 of the National Assembly. Article 136 of the
constitution states that certain principles (republicanism,
multipartyism, and the separation of religion and state),as
well as articles 36 and 141 cannot be revised. Article 36
stipulates that the president serves a five year term, and
can only be re-elected once. Article 141 grants amnesty to
those involved in the 1996 and 1999 coups. This would appear
to preclude amending the constitution to allow a third term,
but raises the possibility of adopting a new constitution. A
constituency for a new constitution would include those who
would like to hold the 1996 and 1999 coup plotters
accountable.


3. (SBU) There is growing speculation that Tandja could use
the rebellion in the north as a pretext to postpone the
presidential elections, scheduled for late 2009. Some of our
interlocutors cite Ivoirian president Gbagbo's continued
postponement of elections due to the division of Cote
D'Ivoire as a model.


4. (C) Comment: The next Presidential elections are still
over two years away, and Tandja has given no official
indication that he may wish to stay in office beyond his
current term. He is, however, behaving increasingly like a
candidate rather than a lame duck, which has sparked growing
concern among many Nigeriens -- not the least among
Presidential aspirants -- that he has not resigned himself to
leaving office in 2009. The next election should mark the
first transfer of power from one elected president to
another. Any effort by Tandja to prolong his tenure would not
bode well for Niger's fragile democratic transition.
ALLEN