Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NEWDELHI752
2007-02-14 13:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

BOTH SIDES VICTORIOUS IN BAGLIHAR VERDICT, INDIA

Tags:  PREL PGOV KWWT ECON PBTS ENRG ECIN KISL PK IN 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000752 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWWT ECON PBTS ENRG ECIN KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: BOTH SIDES VICTORIOUS IN BAGLIHAR VERDICT, INDIA
PERHAPS MORE SO

NEW DELHI 00000752 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: A/PolCouns Atul Keshap, Reason 1.5 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000752

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KWWT ECON PBTS ENRG ECIN KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: BOTH SIDES VICTORIOUS IN BAGLIHAR VERDICT, INDIA
PERHAPS MORE SO

NEW DELHI 00000752 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: A/PolCouns Atul Keshap, Reason 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. The World Bank-appointed neutral expert
announced his ruling on February 12 regarding the
controversial Baglihar dam project, which both Pakistan and
India claimed as a victory. Several specifications contested
by Pakistan are being addressed, but the overall design of
the dam is intact and India is ready to move forward toward
completion and operation in one year's time. The ruling is
not only final and binding, but also establishes that India
is in the clear to proceed with other projects in the region
that involve waters granted to Pakistan under the 1960 Indus
Waters Treaty. The Indian press praised the verdict as a
victory and vindication after more than a decade of
disagreement. End Summary.


Design Largely Acceptable, Just Needs Tweaking
-------------- -


2. (U) World Bank-appointed neutral expert Professor Raymond
Lafitte, a Swiss civil engineer, released his final and
binding decision on February 12 regarding the Baglihar dam to
Pakistani and Indian representatives in Bern, Switzerland.
Lafitte cleared the 450-MW Indian hydroelectric project on
the Chenab River with only minor alternations, which India
said in a statement "all arise from calculations and not from
(conflicts with the) basic principles" of the 1960 Indus
Waters Treaty. Pakistan had contended that the 4.5-meter
freeboard (the vertical distance between the top of the dam
and the level of the contained water supply) should be only
0.84 meters tall, but Lafitte found a 3-meter height in
order. The new, shorter design will stand over 140 meters
tall, total, and conform to the standards of the
International Commission of Large Dams. The neutral expert
ruled in India's favor that the dam could have 32.56 million

cubic meters of pondage (the dam's water storage capacity),
an amount lower than India's design of 37.50, but far greater
than the 6.22 advocated by Pakistan. He also allowed a
higher rate for the design flood than Pakistan wanted in
order to account for calculation uncertainties and possible
climate change. Finally, Lafitte agreed with India's
approach to deal with the silt that accumulates from the
sediment-rich Himalayan water. India uses an outlet method
that did not exist in 1960 and will not interfere with the
level of flow of the Chenab's waters, according to the
neutral expert's decision and in keeping with the Indus
Waters Treaty. The dam is scheduled for completion by early
2008 with a total cost of around $1 billion (estimates vary
from Rs. 40 to 50 billion).


Media Reaction: India Scores A Victory, Vindication
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Many news outlets on Tuesday reflected a sense of
victory and vindication for India. Multiple newspapers noted
that the changes recommended by Lafitte are "marginal" and
that the dam's electricity output is not expected to be
affected by the verdict. The Hindu reported that India had
claimed a "moral victory," and that there was "visible
relief" in the Indian Water Resources Ministry. An article
in The Pioneer claimed that the dam, outfitted with an
anticipated second 450-MW power station, could "rejuvenate"
Jammu and Kashmir's economy, "which is in doldrums after

NEW DELHI 00000752 002.2 OF 003


years of strife." The Times of India had one of the most
strongly-worded articles, saying that India can "happily live
with" the verdict, which denies "Pakistan any excuse to
quibble." The article gloated, "This is the second time in
recent years that India has been given a thumbs up in a
dispute involving Pakistan," the earlier incident being the
downing of a Pakistani surveillance aircraft by India in 1999.


Decision Has Set Precedent
--------------


4. (C) Former High Commissioner to Pakistan G. Parathasarthy
told PolOff on February 13 that this decision "set
precedents" for future construction of dams affected by the
Indus Waters Treaty. "A lot of projects that were held up
are now possible," he said. In particular, he noted that
India can now proceed with its Kishenganga dam project in
Jammu and Kashmir, the subject of a similar disagreement
between Pakistan and India. "If the Pakistanis object, then
we'll take the issue to the World Bank again," he said. "The
independent expert made clear what is acceptable under the
Indus Waters Treaty and what isn't." In the past, India had
offered to build the Baglihar dam lower (as the verdict
commands) and thus the same outcome could have been reached
"15 years earlier" had Pakistan chosen to cooperate with, and
not contest, India's intentions, Parathasarthy noted. He
also compared the Baglihar dam project with the older Salal
dam project, another dam in Jammu and Kashmir. In the case
of the Salal dam, India designed and constructed the dam with
Pakistani sediment-related specifications in mind. As a
result, he claimed that the dam became "silted-in" in under
20 years. Given Monday's verdict, India will likely not make
the same mistake twice.


Important That Islamabad Feels It Won, Too
--------------


5. (C) The ruling reflected several of Pakistan's objections
to the dam, as mentioned in paragraph 2. PolOff spoke with
Hindustan Times editor Manoj Joshi on February 13, who
emphasized that the verdict has so far been well received in
Pakistan. "If you can work out solutions for both capitals,
then that's the way to do it," he said. Joshi finds that
water is an "emotional issue" in South Asia, particularly
given the current protests in Karnataka in response to the
Cauvery Tribunal verdict. It would have been unproductive
had the decision been India's victory alone, and disagreement
over the issue would have been dragged "on and on." He
summarized, "If India says one thing, the Pakistanis will
disagree." That there was an international observer in this
case makes the verdict palatable to the Pakistanis. Joshi
pointed to the Kutch boundary tribunal of the 1960s, in which
another international arbiter decided a largely technical
dispute between the two nations. Although not part of the
Composite Dialogue process, Joshi believes that the Baglihar
decision may have positive--though indirect--implications for
other areas of contention in Indo-Pak relations.


Comment: A Workable Outcome
--------------


6. (C) Comment: The fact that both India and Pakistan are

NEW DELHI 00000752 003.2 OF 003


claiming victory is a positive outcome to one problem that
has plagued relations for 15 years. As our Indian
interlocutors frequently remind us about Indo-Pak relations,
it may have been a wise decision for the U.S. not to have
intervened in this issue since things very well could have
transpired in a less mutually applauded way and the U.S.
could have taken the blame. As it is, neither side is
casting blame on Prof. Lafitte, the World Bank, the U.S., or
any other third-party entity. The verdict may also mitigate
India's distrust in international arbiters, allowing for
their potential use in addressing other problems. Since the
450-MW hydroelectric station is expected to come on-line in
one year's time, it should also provide a boon to the unmet
energy needs of Jammu and Kashmir (estimated at 2000 MW) as
well as India at large. That India has the green light to
complete and/or build similar dams on other rivers throughout
Jammu and Kashmir is a fact likely not lost on anyone in
energy-starved New Delhi. End Comment.


7. (U) We coordinated this cable with Embassy Islamabad.
MULFORD