BHUTAN EXPERIENCING GROWING PAINS IN ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 NEW DELHI 005299

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KDEM KWMN IN BT
SUBJECT: BHUTAN EXPERIENCING GROWING PAINS IN ITS
TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY

REF: NEW DELHI 5243

Classified By: A/DCM Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In November, Poloff accompanied Population,
Refugee, and Migration (PRM) A/S Ellen Sauerbrey to Bhutan to
discuss resolution of the protracted Bhutanese refugee crisis
in Nepal (ref A). During this visit, interlocutors including
the former King, Jigme Singye Wangchuck, Prime Minister
Lyongpo Kinzang Dorji, the presidents of both registered
political parties, the Editor in Chief of Kuensel, the
national newspaper, members of the Election Commission, the
Anti-Corruption Commission Chairperson, and the Foreign
Ministry discussed the impending transition to democracy
scheduled for December 2007 (upper house) and March/April
2008 (lower house),as well as economic and security issues
facing the nation.


2. (C) These conversations revealed a democratic transition
that is largely directed by the former King and adhered to by
a population that needs a lot of familiarization. While the
technical election structure appears ready for action, there
are still bumps in the road. In meetings with the political
party leadership from each party, one of whom will be the
next Prime Minister, they confessed that they do not differ
in ideology and yet differences are being falsely
constructed, causing community strife. Where the political
party leaders do differ is in personality, which will be a
key deciding factor for Bhutanese voters. The Bhutanese face
a tough challenge, implementing democracy while still
educating themselves on its concepts and institutions. The
Maoists of Nepal also are threatening disruptions. Though
the former King began the transition to democracy, there is
no doubt that his son, the current King Jigme Khesar Namgyal
Wangchuck, is in command of the country. Under the current
King, economic shifts are expected including Bhutan opening
up for more foreign direct investment. Additionally, unlike
his father, the current King is said to prioritize economic
growth perhaps a little higher than environmental protection.
With new leadership and a new governing system, Bhutan is a
nation to be watched as it matures through its growing pains.
End Summary.

Why Democracy, Why Now?
--------------


3. (C) Former King Jigme Singye Wangchuck told A/S Sauerbrey
that he never believed in the monarchy system because it is
based on birth and not merit. He explained that though he
might be good for the people, there is a danger that future
kings might not be -- and that is too great a possibility to
risk. In preparation for the transition, the former King
said he looked into the constitutions of over 50 democratic
countries to identify strengths and weaknesses in their
systems.


4. (C) Editor in Chief Kinley Dorji of the national newspaper
Kuensel said that the former King has been working toward
instituting a democracy since the first day of his rule. In
his first address in 1974, the former King spoke of a
people's government and created local and municipal level
representational governing bodies to start teaching the
Bhutanese democratic principles in preparation for a large
scale transition to democracy. Dorji, however, noted that
rural Bhutanese are suspicious of this transition. He added
that most Bhutanese have not seen good models of democracy
from the region, referencing Nepal and India. Rural
Bhutanese are wondering that if the monarchy has worked for
100 years, why should it change now?

Who Can Vote?
--------------


5. (C) According to the former King, all Bhutanese citizens

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above 18 years can vote. Kuensel Editor Dorji personally
attested to ethnic Nepali Bhutanese who will also have the
right to vote in the elections scheduled for December 2007
(upper house) and March/April 2008 (lower house).
Approximately one-third of the Kuensel office consists of
Bhutanese of ethnic Nepali origin and they all intend to go
to the polls on election day, Dorji noted. In fact, he
stated, the Nepali vote will be a key voting block in the
elections. Since ethnic Nepalis were prohibited from
government service, they opened businesses and now constitute
an affluent and influential community. As such, Dorji
contended that Nepalis are more empowered than what most
might believe.

The Election Commission: Covering all the Bases
--------------


6. (C) Deki Pema, one of Bhutan's three Election
Commissioners, expressed great confidence that a successful
election would occur. She told Poloff of the elaborate plan
in place to implement the elections. The elections will
occur during the winter months because polling will take
place in schools, which will be closed at that time. In
remote areas cut off due to snow and ice, helicopters will be
used to airdrop electronic voting machines (EVMs) and polling
officers. Already, Pema noted, provisions which can be sent
in advance are being delivered to the polling stations.
According to her, polling stations would be no more than a
two-hour walk for each citizen and no more than 1000 voters
would be allocated per polling station. Results will be
available the same day due to the EVMs and walkie-talkies
which will deliver results back to headquarters from remote
areas. In case of generator failures, solar energy will be
used for the EVMs. The Election Commission has drafted rules
to monitor campaign finance for parties and candidates, and
she assured Poloff that there is a plan in place for
security. Regarding educating the public on democracy and
how to vote, Pema spoke of a public education campaign aimed
at teaching the Bhutanese about political parties,
campaigning, and voting.


7. (C) According to the Bhutanese Embassy in New Delhi,
approximately 300,000 Bhutanese have registered to vote --
almost half the population of Bhutan. On December 31, voters
will go to the polls to elect members of the National Council
(upper house). Twenty members, each representing one
district in Bhutan, will be voted into office and the King
will appoint five others, for a total of 25 members in the
National Council. Candidates running for the National
Council are not associated with either political party. In
many districts, anywhere from two to four candidates are
contesting these seats. There are however, two districts who
will not hold National Council elections in December because
they do not have at least two people running for office. In
early 2008, National Assembly elections will occur. At that
time, out of 94 candidates (each political party will field
one candidate per seat in the National Assembly),voters will
elect 47 representatives.

Parties Educating the Voters
--------------


8. (C) There are officially two registered political parties
in Bhutan for the upcoming elections -- the People's
Democratic Party (PDP) and the Druk Pheunsum Tshogpa (DPT).
Each elected official will serve a five-year term and can
serve a maximum of two terms. In meetings with each
political party, both presidents explained that the parties
are not divided on ideology. PDP President Sangay Ngedup,
who was formerly Minister of Agriculture, stated that neither
party can disagree with the current policies, which have been
set by the King. In fact, he proclaimed the biggest fear is
not being able to match the success of the King. This will
lead people to believe they had it better under the monarchy.

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Since issues and ideology are not a deciding factor,
according to Ngedup, the Bhutanese will vote based on the
personalities of the candidates and the "team spirit" of the
political party. The PDP emblem is a galloping white horse
and their mottos are "Serve with Humility" and "Walk the
Talk." Ngedup pointed out that the PDP had five women
running for office, which is better than the DPT's three.


9. (C) DPT President Jigme Thinley spoke at length of the
difficulties in running a campaign in Bhutan. He described
the physical challenges of campaigning, including walking
over fourteen hours between villages and sleeping in sleeping
bags on school floors for months. He lamented the
under-representation of women candidates, which he did not
understand since there are so many women involved in the
political parties and campaigns. In accordance with the
rules of the Election Commission, he is only able to do the
"familiarization" part of the campaign, which is to introduce
the political party and candidates to the people. However,
Thinley has found that the people need intensive education on
democracy, their responsibilities as voters, and how to
physically cast their votes. He claimed to be doing the job
of the Election Commission in explaining democracy. He spoke
of being unable to familiarize voters with his party until
Bhutanese citizens understand the democratic framework and
then he can talk about the role his party plays within that
structure. Thinley jokingly described himself and the
exercise as "the blind leading the foolish down the road
towards democracy."


10. (C) Thinley expressed a personal responsibility to
educate the Bhutanese about democracy, particularly because
his rivals in PDP aggressively promoted their party in the
familiarization component of campaigning. He contended that
many Bhutanese citizens are worried they have lost their
freedom to freely choose a candidate because they signed a
document which makes them PDP members. Kuensel Editor Dorji
reconfirmed this notion, claiming that the PDP exploited
citizens who did not understand what they were signing. They
simply understood that someone from Thimphu, which to them
means the royal government, came and asked for a signature.
Many people feel "duped," Dorji explained, and they do not
understand if they can break from the party they signed up
with to vote another way. According to the election rules,
however, people will not be tied to their party membership on
election day and will vote by secret ballot.

The Political Leadership
--------------


11. (C) Third country representatives posted to Bhutan
revealed a more colorful picture of the political leadership.
PDP President Ngedup is the former Minister of Agriculture,
Marie-Christine Weinberger with the Austrian Embassy's
Development Cooperation Bureau told Poloff. She further
disclosed that he is the brother of the four Queens of the
former King and that Ngedup has a reputation of being a
tyrant like his father, who was a powerful businessman and
known for "rivaling the Tashis" (one of the most powerful
industrial families in Bhutan). Weinberger claimed that
Ngedup solely wants power to gain control of the country.
Michael Rutland, a British resident of Bhutan for over 20
years who was given honorary Bhutanese citizenship for his
close relationship with the former King, whom he tutored,
noted that in Ngedup's latter years as Minister of
Agriculture, he worked on a number of pro-farmer initiatives.
Rutland contended that this was "very cunning" of Ngedup who
knew he was going to run for office in a country where 60
percent of the population are farmers.


12. (C) Rutland described DPT President Thinley, who was
formerly Home Minister, as "very cerebral." Though highly
respected in Thimphu, he is not well known in his own
district from where he will run for office. Ngedup, however,

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is dynamic and aggressive compared with Thinley's dignified
humility. Though Ngedup is clever and is clearly fighting to
win, the race is still up in the air because Ngedup's
personality might not go down well with the Bhutanese who
value "reticence," Rutland added.


13. (C) Kuensel Editor Dorji again noted the difficulties in
educating the public on democracy and selecting who is best
to lead the nation. Affirming what the presidents of the
political parties articulated, Dorji said that the election
will be more a personality and popularity contest versus an
ideological or political contest. Michael Rutland also
echoed this sentiment, saying that DPT President Thinley
himself might not realize his career will end if he loses in
his own constituency, where he is allegedly not well known.

The Challenges Ahead: Maoists
--------------


14. (C) Various interlocutors outlined the major challenges
ahead. Prime Minister (PM) Kinzang Dorji emphasized the need
to prepare and sensitize civil servants on how to work with
politicians. He also spoke at length about strengthening the
bureaucracy so the new government will be ready to "take off"
from day one.


15. (C) PM Dorji also noted that the Maoists in Nepal have
already threatened to disrupt the elections. The Bhutanese
must take this threat very seriously, Dorji insisted,
especially in light of the bombings which took place during
the mock elections in April. He referred specifically to the
Bhutan Communist Party (BCP) and the Bhutan Tiger Force as
elements who have improvised explosive devices and who have
publicly stated their intent to obstruct the transition to
democracy. In separate conversations with Rutland and Dorji,
each confirmed that the Maoists could pose a significant
threat. Rutland alleged that the BCP openly threatened to
use the refugees in the Nepali camps to overthrow the
monarchy and the new government. He contended that while the
Election Commission might have made arrangements to handle
security at polling sites, they will have to be careful not
to frighten away voters with a heavy police presence.


16. (C) Rutland added that the political parties are
artificial creations without issue-based agendas.
Furthermore, neither party can define an agenda since the
10th five year plan is being finalized and policy will not
diverge far from what is stipulated in the plan. As such,
the Bhutanese are faced with the challenge of creating
differences, which is resulting in conflicts that never
existed before. "Without disharmony there is no raison
d'etre in politics," Rutland contended. Kuensel Editor Dorji
reported numerous instances of families, villages, and
communities divided over disparate political associations.
He described some villages grouping together while others are
divided because family members are running against each
other, leading to intra-family squabbles. "Hopefully, these
are just teething problems and this is how democracy begins,"
Dorji opined.


17. (C) Another challenge Dorji noted will be how Bhutan
re-absorbs politicians who resigned from the civil service to
run for office. According to the Election Commission rules,
they cannot rejoin the government as civil servants.

The Economy
--------------


18. (C) Although no one with wom we spoke knew the
unemployment rate, almost all interlocutors mentioned
unemployed youth as a pervasive problem. Dorji noted that
the government is trying to develop opportunities in
information technology and tourism. He outlined policy
shifts in Foreign Direct Investment, which have resulted in

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many new partnerships between Indians and Bhutanese. Dorji
expressed concern over the possibility that Bhutan would join
the World Trade Organization (WTO),which would restrict
Bhutanese control over the economy, particularly in light of
Bhutan's interest in balancing GNP with Gross National
Happiness (GNH). (Note: Unlike conventional development
models which stress economic growth as the ultimate
objective, GNH is based on the premise that true development
takes place when material and spiritual development occurs
simultaneously to complement and reinforce economic growth.
In utilizing this concept, Bhutan seeks to balance
socio-economic development with the preservation and
promotion of cultural values, conservation of the
environment, and good governance. End Note.)

A Growing Civil Society: The Anti-Corruption Commission
--------------


19. (C) In his all-encompassing effort to build a democratic
society, the King, by royal decree, established an
Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) in January 2006. ACC
Chairperson Neten Zangmo explained its three functions:
public education and advocacy; prevention; and investigation.
Zangmo described corruption to be pervasive in both the
bureaucracy and the corporate sector. She highlighted that
the ACC is currently investigating 18 cases of corruption.
While the ACC has the power to arrest, she noted that they do
not have capacity to take on this responsibility, so they
work very closely with the police. Zangmo told Poloff that
the ACC receives 30-40 complaints a month. Her biggest
challenge is educating the public that they have the power to
stop corruption.

The Future of the Monarchy
--------------


20. (C) Both Dorji and Rutland guessed that the King must be
looking at the transition to democracy with a bit of
trepidation as well. He will no longer have a defined role,
and whichever politician becomes Prime Minister will possess
the mandate of the people. Dorji, however, felt that even
without a mandate, the King would still have the reverence of
the people. Rutland, who is close to the royal family, spoke
highly of both Kings, the former and current. He said there
is no doubt about who is running the show. The former King
is ready to retire and "go trekking and play tennis." The
current King, Rutland told Poloff, is dynamic, highly
intelligent, and "more worldly" than his father. He studied
economics and political philosophy and recently set up a
think tank called The People's Project in Thimpu to look at
various socio-economic issues. Rutland predicted that
priorities might shift under the current King, who values
economic progress more than GNH. Rutland ventured that the
current King might compromise on certain environmental issues
if there are great economic gains to be made (Note: The
environment is a key factor of GNH, and according to some,
the country's attention to the environment has retarded its
economic progress. End Note.)

Comment: A Nation in Transition
--------------


21. (C) In a rapidly transforming Bhutan, civil institutions
such as the Election Commission and the Anti-Corruption
Commission carry the onus of educating themselves while
simultaneously blazing a path for society. The upcoming
elections, while noble in concept, also demonstrate the
country's political naivet. Even without political
differences between the two parties, communities and families
are being divided over mere political associations. While
Bhutanese might not at this time vote on an ideology or on
political promises and deliverables, they will learn through
trial and error and mature over time. Politics might be
messy in Bhutan for a period as they try to grapple with new

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institutions and new choices. Nonetheless, the growing pains
will probably ease as the system matures. It is fortunate
that Bhutan has leadership endowed with the respect of the
people as well the vision and commitment to guide this
difficult transition. End Comment.
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