MILD PARLIAMENT DEBATE SHOWS CONGRESS ENJOYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 005174

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2017
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: MILD PARLIAMENT DEBATE SHOWS CONGRESS ENJOYS
SUPPORT FOR NUCLEAR DEAL

REF: NEW DELHI 5120

Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary: Meeting at a November 30 roundtable, Indian
observers thought that the November 28 lower house debate in
Parliament on the civil nuclear cooperation initiative
effectively showed that the Congress Party has the strength
to go forward on the deal. Several analysts pointed to the
surprising lack of interest, as shown by the relatively
sparse attendance at the debate. The restraint shown by two
regional parties which had earlier opposed the deal added to
the impression that a majority in Parliament supports the
deal. On the margins of the discussion, journalist Pranab
Dhal Samata told poloff that Rahul Gandhi, General Secretary
of the All India Congress Committee, had prepared a pro-deal
speech but did not deliver it, which Samata thought indicated
lingering concern from Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi,
who may still hesitate in associating the family name with
the nuclear initiative. Following on the heels of the
lackluster debate, the upcoming Rajya Sabha debate will
likely feature more pointed opinions as political parties
clarify their positions and the more vehement critics have
the opportunity to speak. End Summary.

Sparse Attendance Shows Lack of Commitment in Opposition and
Left
- - -


2. (SBU) Indian observers participating in a November 30
roundtable discussion opined that the paltry presence of
Members of Parliament (MPs) during the November 28 nuclear
debate in the Lok Sabha (lower house) revealed the lack of
fervor by most members to opposing an initiative that clearly
benefits India. According to the Indian Express, the
opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) occupied only
13 of its 22 allotted benches, with five of the 13 holding
one MP each (the benches can accommodate three MPs
comfortably). As for the Left, only one-third to half of its
membership showed up at various times during the
six-and-a-half hour discussion. While several Congress MPs
also did not appear, Congress President Sonia Gandhi and
External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee sat through the
bulk of the debate, while Prime Minister Manmoham Singh was
absent for only 30 minutes. In contrast, BJP leader L.K.
Advani, who spoke second in the discussion, left after his
speech and returned several hours later at the end of the
debate just before he staged a BJP walkout when the PM
declined to respond. DNA reflected the general lack of
energy by titling a November 30 editorial, "A Lifeless
Debate."

Third Front Confusion Strengthens Government
- - -


3. (SBU) Reporting on the debate, media highlighted that two
parties in the United National Progressive Alliance (UNPA,
also known as the Third Front; its composition of regional
political parties recently voted out of state governments has
prompted the moniker United Non-Performing Assets) softened
their opposition, effectively abandoning an alleged deal to
unite with the Left in opposition to the nuclear initiative.
The press saw the Samajwadi Party's statement by Ram Gopal
Yadav as indicative of a new, muted position by the formerly
virulent SP. "I request you to clear the apprehensions
regarding the deal and get the support of our party and
Parliament," Yadav appealed to the PM, whose "credibility,
patriotism and intellectual capacities" he praised. SP
General Secretary Amar Singh responded November 29,
clarifying that while the PM is "a man of honor, the deal is
not an honorable agreement and we reject it lock, stock and
smoking barrel." SP sources told the Telegraph, however,
that the SP had purposely softened the statement to reach out
to the Congress Party, which could prove a useful ally in the
SP's Uttar Pradesh heartland. The November 30 Times of India
also wondered why the SP had fielded only Yadav in the debate
out of its 38 MPs in the Lok Sabha.


4. (C) Further contributing to the muddiness in the UNPA, the
Andhra Pradesh-based Telugu Desam Party (TDP) gave the
impression that it made no statement at all. The TDP
clarified November 29 that its MP had actually tabled the
statement and left. On the margins of the November 30

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roundtable, Indian Express reporter Pranab Dhal Samata told
poloff that he had dinner with a TDP leader in the Rajya
Sabha the night before. According to Samata, the TDP member
realized that he had to make a statement against the deal in
the upcoming Rajya Sabha debate, but he could only think of
arguments in favor of it. He justified his party's stance
against the nuclear deal as "politically expedient" since he
thought it would have little impact on the government's
ability to go forward but would bolster the TDP's stance
against the Congress Party in heavily Muslim areas of Andhra
Pradesh.

Rahul Gandhi Stays in His Seat
- - -


5. (C) While the Congress Party made its support for the
nuclear deal clear, Samata told poloff that All India
Congress Committee (AICC) General Secretary Rahul Gandhi had
drafted a detailed and science-based defense of the deal that
he wanted to deliver in the Lok Sabha debate. "He was going
to talk about de-carbonization and the benefits of the
environment," Samata said. However, when the date of the
debate changed, only MPs Jyotiraditya Scindia and Sachin
Pilot -- both friends of Rahul -- spoke. Samata said that he
could only come to the conclusion that Sonia Gandhi does not
yet want the Gandhi name associated directly with the nuclear
initiative. Although he acknowledged that Sonia Gandhi did
support the deal, he surmised that her support may not extend
very deeply, though he admitted that he lacked proof of
Sonia's supposed interference.

Will PM Singh Act at the End of his Tenure?
- - -


6. (C) Samata also highlighted a November 29 speech made by
PM Singh at a private book launch for Commerce Minister Kamal
Nath, a speech for which the Indian Express delayed
publication of its November 30 edition. Speaking of the need
to do more for the country, the 75-year-old PM emotionally
expressed his concerns for the future of India. "The
decisions we take and the decision we do not take will have
profound implications on the future of our country," he said,
adding that he is "praying" that India remains a "functional
democracy." "I am at the fag end of my life," the PM
admitted. "I think the best we can do is to help transform
the mindsets." Samata said that the PM's introspective
speech, which also promoted more trade, flexible labor rules,
education, and health, took the selected politicians,
bureaucrats and editors by surprise. "There was a wave of
shock," he told poloff. Although the PM did not address the
nuclear deal directly, Samata thought that his frustration
with nay-sayers on the nuclear issue fueled the Prime
Minister's heartfelt plea.


7. (SBU) Manoj Joshi, senior editor of the newly launched
daily Mail Today, also linked the Prime Minister's waning
days with the Congress Party's new-found resolve to move the
nuclear deal forward. As he wrote in a November 22 column,
Joshi observed that the PM underwent prostrate surgery in
mid-September in the midst of the political turmoil, and he
has recovered slower than doctors expected. Joshi said that
he saw the PM's re-engagement in the nuclear deal as proof of
his improved health, but his age has limited his ability to
act as strongly as he may have wanted.

Comment: Government Comes Out On Top -- For Now
- - -


8. (C) The Lok Sabha debate raised enough questions to poke a
hole through the Left's and BJP's contention that a majority
of the Parliament opposes the nuclear deal. With sustained
support from the Congress Party and its allies, and enough
muddiness generated by the flip-flopping of the Third Front,
the UPA can claim a victory. First, however, the Congress
must survive what could be a fierce debate in the Rajya Sabha
scheduled for December 4. The SP and TDP will likely make
their positions against the deal more clear, while the BJP
and Left will field vociferous critics: Arun Shourie,
Yashwant Sinha, Brinda Karat and Sitaram Yechury. The
Congress Party, meanwhile, has its older guard in the upper
house, and will continue to count on the expressions of
support from its regional allies and outlying parties.
MULFORD