Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NEWDELHI4835
2007-11-02 08:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

ABRIDGED WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT DUE TO KEY

Tags:  PREL PGOV TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN 
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ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 020852Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9100
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUCNNSG/NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1273
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 5570
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004835 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: ABRIDGED WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT DUE TO KEY
ELECTIONS IN GUJARAT, HIMACHAL PRADESH

REF: A) MUMBAI 604

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004835

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: ABRIDGED WINTER SESSION OF PARLIAMENT DUE TO KEY
ELECTIONS IN GUJARAT, HIMACHAL PRADESH

REF: A) MUMBAI 604


1. (SBU) Summary: The upcoming winter session of Parliament
is likely to start a week sooner (on November 15) and run
shorter than in previous years. The condensed schedule would
allow party leaders a few days of full-scale campaigning for
state assembly elections in Gujarat on December 11 and 16 and
Himachal Pradesh on December 16. The US-India civil nuclear
initiative is likely to dominate Parliamentary discussions
during the session (septel). The two state elections will be
straight contests between the Congress Party and the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since other parties have
virtually no presence in either state. Both parties attach
considerable importance to these elections as snapshot
indicators of their national appeal as well as for the
momentum they hope to derive in the run-up to Parliamentary
elections before mid-2009. At this point, the BJP is
comfortably positioned to oust the Congress from power in
Himachal. The contest appears to be closer in Gujarat, where
BJP's Narendra Modi has a narrow edge in his attempt to
retain power for a record third consecutive term for him and
fifth straight time for the BJP. A better than expected
result for the Congress party, especially in Gujarat, would
embolden it to confront more aggressively the Left parties
(and its UPA allies),if IAEA talks are still stalled in
December. End Summary

BJP, Congress Agree on Timing
--------------


2. (SBU) Normally the winter session begins the third week of
November and runs to Christmas. Under the proposed revised
schedule recommended by the Cabinet Committee on
Parliamentary Affairs#and expected to be confirmed by the
Cabinet soon, the winter session would begin the week of
November 15 and end on December 7. The UPA proposal to shift
the session schedule has the support of the opposition BJP,
which also is eager to have its national leaders join the
campaigning in Gujarat and Himachal. The Left parties, which

have neither presence nor prospects in either state,
criticized the proposed revision of the Parliamentary
calendar as a dilution of democratic processes. Agreement
between the Congress Party and the BJP on any issue is rare
in the current political environment in India. Their
convergence on the timing of the winter session reflects the
enormous importance the Congress Party and the BJP place on
both state elections.

BJP v Congress Party: Head to Head
--------------


3. (SBU) In both states, the elections will be a straight
contest between the Congress Party and the BJP as third
parties have virtually no following in either state. While
local factors play a dominant role in state elections, the
performance of the two parties in Gujarat and Himachal would
provide a good snapshot indicator of their national strength.
A strong showing by either party in these elections would
provide it momentum in the run-up to Parliamentary elections
before mid-2009. Gujarat is a more crucial battleground for
both parties, not only because it has 26 seats in Parliament
(compared to four for Himachal) but also because of the
Hindu-Muslim dynamic, which has intensified since Chief
Minister Narendra Modi came to power in 2001. Gujarat is
also a "bellwether" Indian state that is leading the Indian
economic resurgence. At this point, five-six weeks before
the elections, the BJP is ahead in both states.

Himachal: BJP Comfortably Positioned
--------------


4. (SBU) The Congress Party, which ousted the BJP in
Himachal Pradesh in 2003 with a clear majority, is on the
back foot today in the state. It is expected to suffer from
a strong anti-incumbency vote. Infighting, defections,
charges of rampant corruption in government, and a water
shortage in the capital, Shimla, have also weakened its
prospects. The betting appears to be on how far the Congress
Party will fall in the elections.

Gujarat: BJP Has Narrow Edge
--------------

NEW DELHI 00004835 002 OF 002




5. (SBU) In Gujarat, where Narendra Modi is vying for his
third consecutive term in office, anti-incumbency will work
against the BJP. It may not be a decisive factor, however,
because Narendra Modi's reputation as an able administrator
and the architect of Gujarat's impressive economic
development, combined with a weak Congress Party organization
in the state, appears to be outweighing the anti-incumbency
drag. Most pundits have the BJP narrowly ahead at this time
(Ref A).


6. (SBU) A wild card will be the communal and caste
undertones which are always a factor in Gujarat but have
become even more prominent since Modi rode the aftermath of
the 2002 riots to further power. A recent story by a
newsmagazine about Modi's role in condoning the riots has
been getting front page attention in the print and electronic
news media in Delhi (septel). Congress Party allies like
Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav have seized on the
assertions and demanded Modi's dismissal. Many observers
believe that the more the election becomes about Modi and his
role in the riots, the better his chances to retain power
because such focus strengthens his anti-Muslim, Hindu
nationalism credentials, consolidates the right wing Hindu
vote in the state and serves to intimidate the Muslim
minority from enthusiastically participating in the electoral
process. Indeed, as a sign of this, the Gujarat unit of the
Congress Party has remained silent about the allegations;
while the Congress can count on the Muslim vote in the state,
state party leaders would not want to alienate Hindu voters
who can turn the tide against the BJP.

Comment: BJP Hopes to Keep Win Streak Going
--------------


7. (SBU) For the BJP, winning the two states would add to a
string of solid victories it and/or its allies have rung up
in the last two years -- Bihar, Punjab and Uttarkhand. It
would also allow the party to push under the rug its poor
performance in the Uttar Pradesh elections in May 2007 as an
anomaly driven by unique local factors. The BJP has been
racked by infighting, leadership and ideological battles, and
organizational ineptitude since its loss in the 2004
parliamentary elections. Strong performances in Himachal and
Gujarat would give the party confidence that its internal
disorder has not affected the appeal of its message in those
states and, pssobly, nationawide.

Comment: Congress Hopes to Exceed Expectations
-------------- -


8. (SBU) Were the Congress to fare better than expected in
Gujarat and Himachal, it would become emboldened to confront
more aggressively its UPA allies and the Left parties as they
attempt to influence UPA policy for their narrow interests.
In particular, the Congress Party will push more forcefully
for the US-India civil nuclear agreement (if the IAEA talks
are still stalled) and will be more willing to risk early
Parliamentary elections. A strong showing by the Congress
Party in Gujarat against the BJP's Narendra Modi, the poster
boy of right-wing anti-Muslim Hindu nationalist ideology,
would also enhance the appeal of the Congress Party to the
Muslim community around the country in the run up to
Parliamentary elections before mid-2009.
MULFORD