Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NEWDELHI4456
2007-10-01 11:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

WEST BENGAL CPM LEADER STANDS STRONG AGAINST

Tags:  PREL PGOV KNNP PARM TSPL ETTC ENRG TRGY IN 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3200
OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHNE #4456/01 2741120
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 011120Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8610
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6569
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 4307
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2392
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 5337
RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1214
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 5424
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 7278
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004456 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP PARM TSPL ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: WEST BENGAL CPM LEADER STANDS STRONG AGAINST
HARDLINERS IN SUPPORT OF 123 AGREEMENT

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004456

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KNNP PARM TSPL ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: WEST BENGAL CPM LEADER STANDS STRONG AGAINST
HARDLINERS IN SUPPORT OF 123 AGREEMENT

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Following two days of Communist Party of
India-Marxist (CPM) central committee meetings September
29-30 in Kolkata, West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu took
a stand separating himself and his clique from the hardliners
opposed to the 123 Agreement and the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear
initiative. Basu held off CPM members opposed to the deal by
stating that the CPM could not decide upon its next plan of
action until the final two UPA-Left meetings to discuss the
initiative were held October 5 and 14. However, Deepak
Choudhury (personal secretary to the Minister of Science and
Technology) predicted to Kolkata ConGen September 30 that the
Left representatives to the next UPA-Left meeting would
either not show up or walk out of the meeting in protest.
Sanjaya Baru, Media Advisor to the Prime Minister, told
PolCouns September 28 that he expected the CPM would look for
a face-saving way out of the political crisis in order to
avoid early elections, in which the CPM would not likely fare
well. Karat's bark may be worse than his bite, and the
louder the CPM opposes the nuclear deal, the more likely it
is that compromises are in the works with the UPA behind the
scenes. END SUMMARY.

West Bengal Takes a Stand Against Hardliners
--------------


2. (SBU) West Bengal Chief Minister (and CPM senior-most
member) Jyoti Basu reportedly leaned on the hardliners
opposing the U.S.-India civil nuclear agreement at the CPM's
two-day Central Committee meeting in Kolkata. "Let's see
whether the Congress offers any concession at the two
meetings of the UPA-Left committee. Only then can we decide
our next action," Basu stated September 30 in Kolkata,
according to the press. "The Telegraph" called Basu's

comments a "clear signal to the party hardliners to hold
their fire until the mechanism wraps up the next two rounds."



3. (SBU) "The Pioneer" took a dimmer view, reporting that
the UPA-Left committee meetings, scheduled for October 5 and
14, were to be "an exercise in buying time," and that the
Left had already decided to withdraw support for the UPA
government. "The withdrawal of support is inevitable. It is
a question of time and strategy," Left sources reportedly
said. CPM Central Committee member M.K. Pandhe maintained a
tough stance in opposition to the deal and the UPA
government, reportedly declaring, "We are still firm on our
opposition to the deal. We will not allow operationalizing
(of) the deal."

Is There a Face-Saving Way Out for the CPM?
--------------


4. (C) At a reception September 28, Sanjaya Baru, Media
Advisor to the Prime Minister, told PolCouns that all eyes in
the Congress and United Progressive Alliance (UPA) were now
on Kolkata. Delhi's political barons wondered if the
Communists would meet and find a face-saving way out of the
political crisis, which would allow them to avoid an early
election, or if they would come out breathing fire and
demanding a vote of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.
Baru assessed that CPM leader Prakash Karat's calculus is
based on his need to survive the next CPM general congress
which normally should take place in April 2008. If Karat's
strident rhetoric and calls for early elections leads to
elections in which the Left loses seats in the Lok Sabha
(Lower House of Parliament),he will be on thin ice. Karat,
thought Baru, had calculated that the Congress would dump PM
Manmohan Singh when the political crisis began in August, but
the Congress had instead rallied to its Prime Minister and to
the nuclear deal. Because Karat's strategy misfired, he now
faces an uncertain future within the CPM.


5. (C) Baru dismissed Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo and

NEW DELHI 00004456 002 OF 003


Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mayawati's chances to break
out of UP and affect the national vote. He cautioned against
buying into the hype surrounding Mayawati, arguing that she
cannot count on more than 80 or 90 seats at best. In Gujarat
and Rajasthan her appeal is limited, and she can only expect
to gain a bit in Madhya Pradesh. As for the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP),Baru said they are simply not ready and an early
poll may not help them.


6. (C) At the same reception September 28, a vernacular
journalist who is extremely close to Defense Minister Antony
and National Security Advisor Narayanan told DepPolCouns that
he thought the government would pass a law by presidential
decree sometime after the CPM meeting ends on October 5 that
would address some of the concerns the CPM and the BJP have
about the Hyde Act and would gloss over some of the harshest
areas of disagreement about the nuclear deal. Such a law,
the journalist calculated, would permit the CPM to withdraw
its horns, claim "victory," and find a face-saving way out.
Once the law was passed, the Congress would accelerate
efforts to move forward with the nuclear deal, especially the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards
agreement, he added. Asked whether such a law might arouse
the ire of the U.S. Congress, the journalist shrugged and
said that what was "sauce for the goose was also sauce for
the gander."

Minister for Science Says the Deal Will Go Forward Despite
Mid-term Elections
--------------


7. (C) On September 30, Kolkata ConGen spoke with Minister
for Science and Technology Kapil Sibal about the present
state of play on the 123 agreement. ConGen asked Sibal
whether he had an opportunity to meet with any of the CPM
leadership in Kolkata as his visit coincided with the party's
Politburo and Central Committee meetings in the city. Sibal
was evasive, but in separate conversations with his personal
secretary Deepak Choudhury, Choudhury confirmed that Sibal

SIPDIS
has been traveling to pitch the civil nuclear agreement and
had recently been in the other Leftist stronghold of Kerala,
implying Sibal was acting as pitchman to the Left. Sibal was
hesitant to provide details on his impressions about how the
Left's opposition to the 123 would develop, but he did
indicate that he thought midterm elections would be likely.
When asked if the Government of India (GOI) would go forward
with "operationalizing" the agreement, in conducting further
negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) over the
objections of the Left, Sibal confidently responded that yes,
the GOI would conduct further international meetings on the
civil nuclear agreement.

The Left and UPA Headed for a Final Break?
--------------


8. (C) Choudhury told ConGen that he anticipated that the
Left representatives to the UPA-Left committee to discuss the
123 Agreement would not attend or would walk out of the
October 5 meeting. Another meeting was to follow on October

14. Choudhury believed that the Left and UPA were coming to
a final break over the 123 Agreement in October.

Looking for Concessions from Washington
--------------


9. (SBU) Seizing on erroneous press reporting of statements
by Assistant Secretary Boucher, Central Committee members
claimed the U.S. had "no timeline" for operationalizing the
nuclear deal. The "Times of India" reported Foreign Minister
Mukherjee was expected to "be able to extract some
concessions from Washington on the nuclear deal" during his
visit to the U.S.

Comment: The Louder the Bark, the Smaller the Bite

NEW DELHI 00004456 003 OF 003


--------------


10. (C) While Baru, Basu, and Sibal give differing views on
the Left's likely course of action, Post believes CPM is
indeed seeking a face-saving way to allow the government to
close the civil nuclear deal while avoiding early elections.
Contacts here suggest the longer and louder the CPM
hardliners bark and speak out against the nuclear deal, the
more likely it is that back room compromises are in the works
to preserve it. The Left's position will become more clear
following the UPA-Left meeting on the nuclear deal October 5,
and IAEA Director General El Baradei's visit to New Delhi the
week of October 8. Contacts tell us the UPA-Left Committee
will hold a fourth meeting on October 14, buying more time
for FM Mukherjee to work out a deal with the Left, and
possibly delaying further textual negotiations betweeen the
GOI and IAEA. Post will continue to follow the Left's
machinations closely through this period of Central Committee
deliberations and sparring with the UPA. End comment.
WHITE