DELHI DIARY, JULY 6-16

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 003248

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV MASS MARR KUNR EINV PTER MCAP AS
CB, ET, IS, VM, IN
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, JULY 6-16

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3070

B. KOLKATA 197

C. NEW DELHI 2865

D. NEW DELHI 2991

Classified By: Acting PolCouns Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from
Embassy New Delhi for July 6-16, 2007 that did not feature in
our other reporting, including:

-- Sweet Success in Ethiopia: India Invests in Ethiopian
Sugar and Wins African Support for a Security Council Seat
-- India Looks East with the Visit of the Vietnamese Prime
Minister....
-- ....While the Cambodian Prime Minister Is Forced to Cut
His New Delhi Trip Short
-- Australia and India to Talk Defense Cooperation in New
Delhi
-- Israel and India to Expand Missile Development Cooperation
-- Jammu and Kashmir Panel to Recommend Compensation for
Civilian Property?
-- MP Escapes Attack in Jammu and Kashmir
-- Indian Election Commission Announces Vice-Presidential
Race in August
-- Indian Presidential Race Mired in Mudslinging

Sweet Success in Ethiopia: India Invests in Ethiopian Sugar
and Wins African Support for a Security Council Seat
--------------


2. (U) India's bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security
Council garnered the support of both Ethiopia and the
53-member African Union (AU) when External Affairs Minister
Pranab Mukherjee visited Ethiopia July 3-6. Mukherjee and AU
Chairperson Alpha Oumar Konare met the last day of the visit
to discuss "ways and means of further strengthening the
India-Africa partnership." Konare told the press that "India
is one of the countries in the world for which, in Africa,
there is no opposition. India will have the support of
Africa." Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Seyoum
Mesfin, publicly pledged support for a permanent seat on the
UNSC for India. In return, the Government of India (GOI)
agreed to "sustain common positions" with Ethiopia on UN
reform, including "the need for Africa to be represented as a
permanent member on an expanded UNSC," according to the
official statement from the Ministry of External Affairs
(MEA).


3. (U) Ethiopia received a three-year, $640 million loan
from India to support Ethiopia's sugar industry. Agreements
signed by the two sides include the formation of a Joint
Ministerial Commission, a Bilateral Investment Promotion and
Protection Agreement (BIPPA),agreements on science,
technology and educational exchange, and a protocol for
consultations between the two foreign affairs ministries. In
addition, Mukherjee inaugurated the multi-million dollar
"e-network" initiative, the brain-child of Indian President
A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, providing "tele-education" and
"tele-medicine" to Africa. The program is designed to
connect 53 African nations with India via satellite and fiber
optics, allowing African hospitals to consult Indian with
healthcare institutes and enabling African students to
e-learn from top Indian institutions.


4. (C) Comment: India's investment in Ethiopia, the second
most populous country on the African continent, and the
positive public relations spin India will get from its
"e-network" initiative, both appear to have worked in the
GOI's favor. While trade promotion and protection via BIPPA
stand to benefit both countries, India's loan to Ethiopia's
sugar industry has sweetened the deal, apparently locking in

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unfettered African support for India's bid for a permanent
Security Council. End comment.

India Looks East with the Visit of the Vietnamese Prime
Minister....
--------------


5. (SBU) In a continued effort to pursue its "Look East"
policy (reftels A and B),India hosted Vietnamese Prime
Minister Nguyen Tan Dung July 4-6. Dung visited Kolkata,
Jamshedpur, Mumbai and New Delhi and met with Prime Minister
Singh, President Kalam, the Minister of State for External
Affairs Anand Sharma, Lok Sabha speaker Somnath Chatterjee,
and Lok Sabha opposition leader L.K. Advani during his
three-day visit. Vietnam signed nine agreements with the
GOI, including a Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership,
which provides for the establishment of a strategic dialogue,
a joint working group on counterterrorism, closer defense
cooperation, Indian financial assistance to Vietnam through
grants and concessional Lines of Credit, a joint commitment
to bilateral trade, and cooperation in science, technology
and culture.


6. (U) Other agreements of note include:

-- A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Indian
Department of Atomic Energy and the Vietnamese Ministry of
Science and Technology to facilitate the training of
Vietnamese in India in nuclear-related activities, and to
provide Indian assistance to the India-Vietnam Nuclear
Science Center in Dalat.

-- A MOU on cooperation between Vietnam Steel Corporation and
India's Tata Steel, Ltd. allowing for the sharing of
expertise between the two companies, and designed to "deepen
the relationship" between the two in the mining and steel
making sectors.


7. (C) Comment: "Indian Express" analyst C. Raja Mohan
referred to Dung's visit as "the acceleration of the
strategic realignment in Asia." He saw the visit as "an
opportunity (for New Delhi) to put behind the political and
commercial neglect of Vietnam in recent years." Having set a
target of doubling bilateral trade with Vietnam from US $1
billion in 2006 to US $2 billion by 2010, the GOI is poised
to make investment in Vietnam a cornerstone of its "Look
East" policy. End comment.

....While the Cambodian Prime Minister Is Forced to Cut His
New Delhi Trip Short
--------------


8. (U) Also in the context of "Look East" diplomacy,
Cambodian Prime Minister Samdech Hun Sen made his first trip
to India in seven years on July 8, but was forced to call off
his meetings with officials July 9 due to the death of former
Indian Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar. According to the
"Hindustan Times," Hun Sen was expected to sign a number of
agreements in the areas of defense, energy and culture,
including a technical assistance agreement between the
National Petroleum Authority of Cambodia and the Indian Oil
and Natural Gas (ONGC) Commission. According to the MEA,
External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee met Cambodian
Foreign Minister Hor Namhong July 8 and conveyed that
official meetings -- but no protocol events -- could be
carried out as planned the next day, but the Cambodian
delegation declined, deeming it improper to meet on the same
day as Shekhar's funeral. The MEA reports that Hor Namhong
indicated to Mukherjee that the delegation would return "as
soon as mutually convenient dates were agreed upon."

Australia and India to Talk Defense Cooperation in New Delhi

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--------------


9. (U) Australian Defence Minister Brendan Nelson held
defense cooperation talks in New Delhi on July 11. According
to media reports, Nelson met with Indian Defence Minister
A.K. Antony, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and
the chiefs of all three armed services to build upon the
bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on defense
cooperation signed by the two sides in March 2006. The
"Indian Express" speculated that the talks "give practical
shape" to the quadrilateral dialogue among India, Australia,
Japan and the U.S. which was initiated in Manila in May 2007.
Information sharing related to counterterrorism figured
prominently in discussions with Indian officials given the
recent arrest on Australian soil of Indian nationals
suspected of terrorism in the United Kingdom. The newly
formed bilateral Maritime Security Operations Working Group
was a topic. Australia has planned several upcoming port
calls on India, and the Australian Navy Chief Russ Shaldern
is expected to visit New Delhi in August.

Israel and India to Expand Missile Development Cooperation
--------------


10. (SBU) The Indian Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired
by PM Singh, reportedly cleared a deal July 12 between
India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)
and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to expand their missile
development cooperation with a longer-range version of the
Barak missile system for the Indian Air Force (IAF).
According to media reports, the proposed surface-to-air
system is projected to cost US$2.5 billion and would have a
range of 150 kilometers, replacing the current Soviet-era
Pechora missile system currently being used by the Indians.
Comment: This development is one more sign that India and
Israel are increasing their already excellent defense ties.
End comment.

Jammu and Kashmir Panel to Recommend Compensation for
Civilian Property?
--------------


11. (U) Defense Secretary Shekhar Dutt visited Jammu and
Kashmir (J and K) July 5-6 to hold consultations with ground
commanders in various districts of the region. Dutt heads a
panel of experts on J and K, formed in March 2007 by Prime
Minister Singh, to study the security situation in the state,
and to assess if relocation and reconfiguration of troops can
be carried out. Regional Corps Commander Lieutenant-General
S.K. Sekhon was reportedly present along with other senior
officials, who toured the Rajouri and Doda districts in
Jammu, and Awantipur, Baramulla and Kupwara districts in
Kashmir, according to media reports.


12. (U) The panel is expected to recommend immediate
withdrawal of troops from orchards and schools, or offer
payment of compensation for using such premises, according to
the Indian media. "The Financial Express" reports that J and
K Chief Minister Gulam Nabi Azad had been releasing civilian
property occupied by paramilitary forces and the army since
he took over in 2005, and that he sought immediate
compensation for owners of orchards taken over by the
security forces in a July 5 meeting with Dutt. Several media
outlets report that the panel is expected to concede to Azad
and recommend compensation as well as propose a separate fund
for building infrastructure for security forces fighting
militancy in the state. Azad, known for his opposition to
troop reduction in the state as long as the terrorist and
insurgent threat remains, reportedly expressed serious
apprehensions to Dutt on the reduction of forces.


13. (U) Dutt, who is planning to retire July 31, is expected

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to submit the panel's report to Defense Minister A.K. Antony
at the end of July, after which a committee comprised of
Antony and representatives of the Central and State
governments will make a decision based upon the panel's
recommendations.

MP Omar Abdullah Escapes Attack in Jammu and Kashmir
--------------


14. (U) National Conference President and Member of
Parliament (MP) Omar Abdullah survived a hand grenade attack
in Jammu and Kashmir on July 9, according to press reports.
The attack in the Kralgund village in Kupwara district
wounded fourteen, including five military Central Reserve
Police Force troopers, two policemen and seven civilians.
Police reportedly said Abdullah was entering the house of a
party worker near the venue of his public meeting in Kralgund
when terrorists hurled the grenade. The area around the
explosion site was immediately cordoned off and searches were
carried out. As of July 9, no group had yet claimed
responsibility for the attack. Insurgents had unsuccessfully
targeted Abdullah previously in an October 2004 bomb attack.

Indian Election Commission Announces Vice-Presidential Race
in August
--------------


15. (U) With current Vice-President (VP) Bhairon Singh
Shekhawat finishing his term on August 18, the Indian
Election Commission announced that India's Thirteenth
Vice-Presidential election will take place on August 10, with
results declared the same day. The Vice-Presidential
election, similar to the Presidential election, is conducted
through an electoral college comprised of members from both
houses of Parliament. The total number of voters is 790 (545
from the Lower House "Lok Sabha" and 245 from the Upper House
"Rajya Sabha").


16. (C) Political insiders claim the Left extended support
to Congress' candidate, Pratibha Patil, for the post of
President with the understanding that a Left party member
would be fielded for Vice-President by the United Progressive
Alliance (UPA)-Left coalition. The leading name in the rumor
mill is current Speaker of the Lok Sabha and Communist Party
of India-Marxist leader Somnath Chatterjee. Other names
circulating include current Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, N.
Karunanidhi; the royal heir to the Maharaja of Jammu and
Kashmir and Congress Party Member of Parliament Karan Singh
(whose name was also thrown in the pool for the Presidential
race before the UPA fixed its sights on Patil); and former
Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir Farooq Abdullah. The
last day to file nominations is July 23, so negotiations are
expected to shift to the Vice-Presidential race once the
results of the Presidential race is announced on July 21.

Indian Presidential Race Mired in Mudslinging
--------------


17. (U) Since the June 14 announcement of Pratibha Patil as
the UPA-Left Presidential Candidate, Patil has fumbled
through gaffes regarding why India women went into purdah
(ref c) and her conversations with the ghost of her dead guru
(ref d),as well as accusations of corruption and criminal
conduct. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) intensified the
heat on July 10, launching a website at
"www.knowpratibhapatil.com" replete with documents purporting
to provide evidence of Patil's role in a women's bank
cooperative which failed due to untenable loans made to her
family members, a shady land deal benefiting her family, and
allegations that she shielded her brother from murder
charges. Opposition editorials and cartoons have appeared
depicting Patil as someone who will tarnish the office of the

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President and have urged members of the Electoral College to
reconsider their allegiance to her. The BJP announced its
intention to publish a pamphlet summarizing information from
the website and mail it to all members of the Electoral
College. On July 1, after days of silence, Patil attempted to
refute the allegations, describing them as "false and
malicious."


18. (U) On July 7, Congress struck back, dredging up old
records showing that Patil's opponent, the National
Democratic Alliance-supported candidate Bhairon Singh
Shekhawat, had joined the British colonial police force in
the 1940's when India's Independence movement was growing.
As a result, Congress questioned his allegiance to the
nation. Shekhawat spokesperson and BJP leader Sushma Swaraj
dismissed the attack, saying Congress lost its right to talk
about the freedom struggle after appointing a foreigner as
its President, referring to Sonia Gandhi.


19. (C) Comment: As voting on July 19 gets closer, the race
gets dirtier and dirtier. Though the Left and Congress are
sticking by their candidate, the BJP is turning up the heat
and asking the Electoral College to vote its conscience, not
its politics. Congress has yet to launch a full frontal
assault on Shekhawat, focusing primarily on meeting with
coalition party leaders and lining up votes. Though Patil
still appears to be the front-runner, the mudslinging
campaign could prove effective, potentially dislodging some
votes from the UPA-Left coalition. The damage to her
reputation could reduce her stature, even if she succeeds in
winning the contest. End comment.
PYATT