KASHMIR ANXIOUS WITH LITTLE SHORT-TERM HOPE FOR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 002935

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: KASHMIR ANXIOUS WITH LITTLE SHORT-TERM HOPE FOR
PEACE

REF: NEW DELHI 2792

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius, Reason 1.4 (B,D)


1. (S) SUMMARY: Unknown terrorists threw a grenade at a bus
stop in Doda in J & K June 25, wounding 15, three critically.
Thousands of Kashmiri Muslims, both Shi'a and Sunni, staged
minor, non-violent street actions and chanted anti-US slogans
June 14 and 15 to protest the Iraq Samarra Mosque bombings.
Post contacts in Kashmir downplayed the anti-US angle of the
protests, noting that known troublemakers such as hard-line
separatist Hurriyat Chairman Syed Ali-Shah Geelani were
craftily manipulating the protests and fabricating the
anti-US spin for personal and political reasons. Two large
religious pilgrimages in Kashmir in June may be targeted by
terrorists, but Indian security and police forces are well
aware of the danger and have taken preventive measures. The
mood in the valley is grim, with political uncertainties in
Pakistan dashing hopes of peaceful settlement for the time
being. The Government of India and the Chief Minister of
Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) are publicly refusing the People's
Democratic Party's demands for demilitarization of J&K. The
Siachen talks between Pakistan and India have hit another
major snag, with both sides squabbling over establishment of
the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL). END SUMMARY.

TERRORISTS LOB GRENADE; 15 COMMUTERS INJURED IN EXPLOSION


2. (S) On June 25, unknown assailants threw a grenade at a
bus stop in Doda in J & K June 25, wounding 15, three
critically. Shakhee Ammad Beig, Senior Superintendent of
Police in Jammu told senior POLFSN that known terrorist group
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) is active in the Doda region, but that
no group has claimed responsibility at time of report.
Indian media reports that the attackers had aimed for an
Indian Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) patrol but missed
their target, sending the grenade into a group of commuters
waiting for a bus. Beig added that the injured are being
airlifted to Jammu for medical treatment.

OPPORTUNISTIC HURRIYAT MEMBERS ATTEMPT TO WHIP UP ANTI-US
SENTIMENT IN KASHMIR


3. (S) All major Indian media outlets reported on the
demonstrations in the Kashmiri valley on June 14 and 15. The
purported cause of the demonstrations was the bombing and
serious damage caused to the Shi'a Samarra mosque in Baghdad
June 14. On June 14, Kashmiri media reported that
demonstrations broke out in several places, including Kargil,
Budgam district and Srinigar. Youths shouted anti-US and
anti-Israel slogans and burned President Bush in effigy.
Kargil emptied its streets of vehicle traffic as thousands of
youths turned out to protest. Hurriyat leader Maulana Abbas
Ansari and Chairman Syed Ali-Shah Geelani made separate
public statements blaming the mosque bombing on "Zionist
elements" and those who are trying to drive a wedge of
discord between Sunni and Shi'a. Many of the protesters
organized joint Shi'a and Sunni gatherings and shouted
slogans of Muslim unity. More protests were held the
following day after prayers. Media reported that the
protests ended peacefully. Muzami Jalil, the Indian Express
correspondent in Srinigar, gave senior POLFSN his take on
events June 21, stating "small groups demonstrated against
the Iraq mosque bombing. It does not mean anything - Geelani
does all this, he has a personal grudge against the U.S."
Tahir Mohiudin, (Editor, Chattan, an Urdu media outlet)
commented that despite the Shi'a protesters' anti-US
sloganeering, "In their hearts they know who bombed the
mosques in Iraq."

SECURITY INTENSIFIED FOR PILGRIMAGES IN JUNE


4. (S) Two major public religious gatherings are scheduled

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to take place in J&K in June, expected to draw thousands of
pilgrims and worshippers, and worrying security forces about
the risk of terrorist attacks. The annual Armanath Yatra
pilgrimage kicks off June 20, and is expected to last two
months. Other than Amarnath Yatra, there will be a Kashmiri
Pandit gathering on June 23 on the outskirts of Srinagar,
called Mela Khir Bhawani (Fair to worship the Goddess). Last
year, around one hundred thousand Kashmiri Pandits and others
gathered for the Mela.


5. (S) Ved Bhasin, (Chairman, Kashmir Times Group) told us
that security is beefed up for Amarnath Yatra. Shakeel Ahmad
Beig, Senior Superintendent of Police in Jammu told us, "for
now, the Amarnath Yatra will be our only focus for two
months." He noted that the Inspector General of Police
ordered a special meeting solely for the purpose of
discussing Amarnath Yatra security preparations. Beig added
that this year the Commanders have decided to replace the
Border Security Forces who have conducted Armanath Yatra
security in the past with Central Reserve Police Forces along
the Yatra route. Beig described this as a "lenient" break
from past security arrangements. Tahir Mohiudin predicted
that the Amarnath Yatra and Khirbhawani Mela will pass by
without much threat.

SUSPECTED TERRORIST CAUGHT IN J & K, RUMORED TO BE FORMER PAK
ARMY OFFICER


6. (S) Muzami Jalil released a story over the weekend
detailing the capture of a suspected former Pakistan Army
officer, Shahzad Khan, in Batapora locality in Kashmir.
Jalil told senior POLFSN "I am one hundred percent sure that
this guy has been arrested." Jalil reported that Khan was in
active duty in the Kargil war of 1999 and has claimed
relation to LTG Mohammed Aziz, a "trusted aide of General
Musharraf" during the war. Jalil also reported that Khan has
been operating with a militant group on Kashmir since 2001,
and he speculated that Khan may be a deserter or quit the
Pakistani military to join a Kashmiri militant group. Post
contacted Gopal Sharma, Director General of J & K police on
June 25, who categorically denied Jalil's story, saying "If
we had caught a (Pakistani) Army Captain, we would have been
shouting from roof top and that would have been evidence of
Pakistan's involvement." Kuldeep Khoda, Sharma's deputy,
verified that police have detained an individual, whom he
described as "hardcore LET", who "may be a Pak Army deserter
and have ties to a General in the Pak army," but he denied
the rest of Jalil's story.


LACK OF POLITICAL MOVEMENT IN J&K BRINGS FRUSTRATION, DIRE
PREDICTIONS


7. (S) NOTE: All comments in paras 7 - 10 were gathered
before the June 25 grenade attack.


8. (S) Nearly all of Post's contacts in Kashmir save one
opined that despite the lull in violence, the ground
situation is simmering with repressed frustration and anger
due to the political stalemate. Bhasin of the Kashmir Times
said, "The situation is worsening, especially in the valley.
Human rights violations are increasing." Arun Joshi, the
Hindustan Correspondent in Jammu said the lack of political
progress is "bringing frustration among the youths in the
valley. The situation will be worse than even early nineties.
The situation in Pakistan is affecting the valley. Anti
U.S. feeling is growing among Muslims. All these are
dangerous trends." Luv Puri, The Hindu Correspondent in
Jammu said "J&K as a whole is drifting away." He shared his
fear that "no other formula is in sight" but that the state
will split three ways, into Hindu Jammu, Muslim Kashmir and
Buddhist Ladakh. He noted that students and professors in the
valley and from Jammu are taking more communal and divisive

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positions.


9. (S) Tahir Mohiudin, Editor, Chattan, an Urdu media outlet
told senior POLFSN on June 21 that Shabir Shah (the former
Hurriyat representative and now leader of the moderate,
independent "J & K Democratic Freedom Party") recently took
the initiative to unite the two Hurriyats and other
separatists, but without any success. Mohiudin noted that
Musharraf,s difficulties in Pakistan have the moderate
Hurriyat deeply concerned adding, "if there would be any
change in Pakistan, they are in trouble. They were dependent
on Musharraf."


10. (S) The lone positive voice, Muzami Jalil, the Indian
Express correspondent in Srinigar, told us, "Things have
changed drastically. Srinagar looks like a normal city.
Shops are open late, people move around late. The security
situation is not bad. Militants are trying to hit, but not
able to manage."

DEMILITARIZATION DEBATE PROVES DIVISIVE


11. (SBU) The People,s Democratic Party (PDP),the UPA
coalition government's main ally, has been using the demand
of withdrawal of Indian troops from J&K, (demilitarization)
as a political whipping stick with increasing vehemence in
the past several months, and has held rallies in support of
the demand. The moderate Hurriyat, led by Mirwaiz Umar
Farooq, has also voiced support for demilitarization in J&K.
On the opposing side, J&K Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and
the Congress party have vociferously spoken out against any
demilitarization plans.


12. (SBU) BACKGROUND: The UPA government constituted two
expert panels earlier this year to deliberate about
demilitarization. One, headed by Defense Secretary Shekhar
Dutt, is carrying out an in-depth assessment of the
situation. The second panel will undertake a review of the
Armed Forces Special Powers Act and how it is implemented in
different areas of the state. Chief Minister Azad had voiced
his opposition to the formation of these two committees
earlier this year and, according to Indian media, held a
press conference in which he displayed infiltration numbers
to prove that infiltration has gone up in 2007, the first
Chief Minister in 20 years to do so. END BACKGROUND.


13. (S) On June 18, Defense Minister A. K. Antony stated to
media that infiltration into J&K this year has gone down
compared to 2006, adding that only April 2007 has witnessed
an increase in infiltration from across the border compared
to last year. This directly contradicts the infiltration
numbers given to us by Kuldeep Khoda, J & K Additional
Director General of Police on June 13 (see reftel),which
show that infiltration has increased in each month of 2007,
compared to 2006. Infiltration levels remain considerably
below those during the same period in 2005, however.


14. (S) On June 17, the Panther Party, a Jammu-based junior
J&K coalition partner, added more fuel to the
demilitarization squabble by withdrawing its support from the
Azad-led government, accusing it of caving in to the PDP on
demilitarization. Antony weighed in, stating there would be
no demilitarization or troop reduction in Jammu and Kashmir
until after the two committees have handed down their
assessments.

SIACHEN PROGRESS MOVES WITH GLACIAL SPEED


15. (SBU) Defense Minister Antony reiterated to media June
18 that Pakistan would have to authenticate the Actual Ground
Position Line (AGPL) on the disputed Siachen glacier before
any forward mofement could be made to resolve the issue. On
June 20, Pakistani MEA spokesperson Tasnim Aslam told media

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that Pakistan has ruled out authentication of troop positions
in Siachen, rejecting India's condition for resolution of the
dispute. Aslam said "Repetition of a rigid position that
Pakistan has already rejected is not going to be of any help
and will lead to nowhere."


16. (S) COMMENT: With the notable exception of today's
bloody grenade attack, violence in the Kashmiri valley is
down, yet cross border infiltrations are up compared to the
same period last year. The feeling among our J & K contacts
is that political turmoil in Pakistan has caused Musharraf to
focus more on domestic issues than on the resolution of the
Kashmir debate, much to the frustration and anxiety of his
erstwhile allies such as Geelani and Mirwaiz Umar Farooq.
With Pakistan's attention distracted, and New Delhi pointedly
ignoring them, radical Kashmiri leaders are grasping for
volatile issues to galvanize their supporters, and have
settled for the Iraqi mosque bombing and demilitarization of
J&K as their latest stalking horses. Mufti Mohammed Sayeed,s
PDP has been using the demilitarization demand as a political
whipping stick with increasing vehemence in the past several
months, and can be expected to keep it up as the 2008
elections approach. END COMMENT.
MULFORD