DELHI DIARY, JUNE 13-20

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002865

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IN
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, JUNE 13-20

REF: A. NEW DELHI 02766


B. NEW DELHI 02315

C. NEW DELHI 2508

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from
Embassy New Delhi for June 13-20, 2007 that did not feature
in our other reporting, including:

-- Gloomy Pakistan Envoy
-- GOI Ministry of Defense sends Shekhar Dutt to Bait the Bear
-- Doctor in India Arrested for Female Feticide
-- NDA and Third Front Name Their Presidential Hopefuls
-- UPA Presidential Candidate Patil Puts Her Foot In Her Mouth

Gloomy Pakistan Envoy
--------------


1. (C) At a June 10 dinner with PolCouns, Pakistani Deputy
High Commissioner Afrasiab complained bitterly that India was
ignoring Pakistan. Still angry that Indian Foreign Minister
(FM) Pranab Mukherjee had snubbed Pakistani FM Kasuri on May
7 at the margins of an ASEM meeting, Afrasiab suggested he
had been betrayed by the GOI, since he believed he had
obtained an iron-clad commitment from Mukherjee to meet with
Kasuri. Afrasiab warned that the window for a Kashmiri
settlement would close, and said that in the future Pakistan
might become less forward-leaning. When PolCouns pressed for
the meaning of this prediction, Afrasiab insisted that he was
not foreshadowing any change in government in Islamabad, but
only indicating concern that India would miss an opportunity
to close on the "easily resolvable" issues of Sir Creek and
Siachen. While the U.S. and China may be important to India,
Afrasiab insisted (contrary to the evidence he had provided
earlier) that Pakistan remains India's number one
preoccupation.

GOI Ministry of Defense sends Shekhar Dutt to Bait the Bear
--------------


2. (C) Stung by Russian price-gouging and broken promises in
recent military procurement deals (ref A & B),New Delhi is
dispatching Defense Secretary Shekhar Dutt and Secretary of
Defense Production KP Singh (rumored to be replacing Dutt in
the next few weeks) to Russia this week to try to break
through the logjam. The hottest debate will be renegotiating
the cost of the Russian contract for 138 additional SU-30 jet
fighters. Moscow has demanded a five percent cost escalation
for delivery of the remaining aircraft, which could push the
total price up to USD two billion above-and-beyond the
original contract. New Delhi finds itself begging the
Russians to lower their demands. New Delhi will also be
calling the Russians to task for the delay, now predicted to
last until 2010, for delivery of the aircraft carrier Admiral
Gorshkov, as well as cost-overruns for the ship's
refurbishment that will stick New Delhi with paying an
additional USD 113 million, a cost not included in the
original contract. Breaking tradition of not commenting
negatively on ongoing military sales, India,s Minister of
Defense A.K. Antony went as far as to publicly admit on June
16 that there were significant "problems8 with the Gorshkov
deal.


3. (C) Comment: In the end, New Delhi and Moscow will
probably compromise by linking the two deals together, with
the Indians agreeing not to slap a monetary &late delivery8
penalty for the Gorshkov delay if the Russians agree to
subtract an equivalent amount from the Sukhoi or Gorshkov
cost increases. With so many military procurement deals
still on the pipeline, including Kazan helicopters, missile
frigates and T-90 tanks, both sides need to ensure ongoing
cooperation, despite the recent embarrassing public blowups.
As a new friend, the USG has an opportunity to milk these
problems, by being contrasted against the "old, reliable
comrade" Moscow. End Comment

Doctor in India Arrested for Female Feticide

NEW DELHI 00002865 002 OF 003


--------------


4. (U) Indian and international media reported that Indian
police arrested General Practitioner Dr. Ajay Kumar Singh on
June 14, accusing him of illegally aborting female fetuses.
The arrest followed a raid at his clinic in Gurgaon in
Harayana state (near Delhi) which uncovered the remains of
several female fetuses in a nearby well. India banned gender
selection and selective abortion in 1994.


5. (SBU) Comment: While exact numbers can never be known,
the Indian Government estimates that 10 million girls have
been killed ) either before or immediately after birth ) by
their parents over the past 20 years. In related news,
UPA,s candidate for President, Pratibha Patil, an advocate
for women, has already identified female feticide at the top
of her agenda. She could be a powerful voice in advocating
for the rights of the girl-child. End Comment.

NDA and Third Front Name Their Presidential Hopefuls
--------------


6. (U) (Also see Ref C) On June 18, the Opposition NDA
coalition and the newly formed Third Front (which has adopted
the name the United Progressive National Alliance (UPNA))
separately identified their Presidential hopefuls. During
intense negotiations, the NDA first attempted to convince
current President Abdul Kalam to contest for a second term.
However, Kalam told the NDA he would only run as the
consensus candidate of all parties. The NDA then endorsed
current Vice President (VP) Bhairon Singh Shekawat, who is
running as an Independent. The UPNA then shocked political
pundits nationwide by throwing its weight behind Kalam, and
will meet with him on June 20 to discuss the future. The
UPNA, determined to retain an opposition identity, refused to
support the Congress candidate, while rejecting Shekawat as a
"communalist" too close to the RSS/BJP.


7. (C) Comment: If on June 20, Kalam is persuaded to run for
a second Presidential term, the NDA coalition would pull
support from Shekhawat and return to Kalam. In such an
unlikely event, VP Shekhawat would step aside, leaving a
contest between UPA candidate Prathiba Patil and NDA/Third
Front supported candidate Abdul Kalam. However, Kalam, a
scientist not a politician, does not have an appetite for an
adversarial contest and will most likely opt out. This would
leave a race between VP Shekhawat and Patil. Prior to
declaring for Kalam, the UPNA threw a few other names around,
including former Chief Minister of Jammu & Kashmir Farooq
Abdhullah. UPNA insiders indicate that support for the Kalam
option is not very strong, and the party may simply abstain
should Kalam decline to run again. We judge that UPA
candidate Patil is the strong favorite to become India's next
President. End Comment.

UPA Presidential Candidate Patil Puts Her Foot In Her Mouth
--------------


8. (U) In a public address on June 17, UPA Presidential
candidate Prathiba Patil shocked the Muslim community with a
remark regarding the practice of purdah (referring to Muslim
women covering their head and often their entire face with a
veil). Patil attributed the origins of purdah to the Mughal
Empire, as Indian women were forced to adopt the practice to
"save women from Mughal invaders." Though Patil meant to
empower women by calling for the end of an antiquated
practice which she believes perpetuates gender inequities,
she stepped on a landmine by echoing opinions expressed by
the Hindu right. As a result, the Muslim community
challenged her secular credentials. Although the criticism
seems to have blown over, once an opposition candidate is
chosen and the presidential race begins in earnest, this
gaffe could cost her some electoral votes. In a somewhat
tempered defense, Congress leaders noted that Patil will have
to exercise caution when deviating from written remarks, but
made allowances since she has been out of national politics
for so long. In the end, this did not deter Congress from
sealing the deal with Patil, and filing papers confirming her

NEW DELHI 00002865 003 OF 003


as their Presidential candidate.
MULFORD