INDIA ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTING ITS FIRST WOMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002805

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL, INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KIRF IN
SUBJECT: INDIA ON THE THRESHOLD OF ELECTING ITS FIRST WOMAN
PRESIDENT

REF: NEW DELHI 2763

Classified By: DCM Geoffrey Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)



1. (SBU) Summary: On June 14, after what threatened to become
an insurmountable impasse, Congress and Left Party leaders
agreed on current Rajasthan Governor Pratibha Devisingh Patil
as the UPA/Left nominee for President of India. A longtime
Gandhi/Nehru family loyalist, Patil would be the first woman
President of India. A secularist, as Governor, she refused
to sign an Anti-Conversion Bill which came before her after
passing the Rajasthan State Legislature. Despite Patil's
nomination being a complete surprise to everyone (including
the media and senior Congress members),reactions to her
nomination were broadly positive. With backing from the UPA,
Left, and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) (reftel),Patil should
have no problem winning a majority of electoral votes on
election day in mid-July. Even current Vice President (VP)
Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, also a contender, will not pose a
significant threat to Patil. Votes will be cast on July 19
and a winner declared on July 21. End Summary.

Breaking the Impasse
--------------


2. (SBU) On June 14, after the Left rejected a series of
Congress picks: Home Minister Shivraj Patil, Jammu and
Kashmir royalty and Member of Parliament Karan Singh, or
Minister of Power Sushilkumar Shinde, it offered two names:
Minister of Human Resource Development Arjun Singh and
Congress Treasurer Mohtilal Vora. Congress, however,
discounted both of them -- Singh in particular due to health
problems. It almost seemed that no agreement would be
reached until Sonia Gandhi pulled her wild card, current
Rajasthan Governor Pratibha Devisingh Patil. Not only did
Gandhi's nominee win over the Left, she made the announcement
of the UPA candidate flanked by Prime Minister (PM) Manmohan
Singh, Left leaders, National Congress Party (INC) president
Sharad Pawar, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) president Lalu
Prasad Yadav, and Dravid Munetra Kazagham (DMK) Tamil Nadu
Chief Minister K. Karunanidhi. (Note: INC, RJP, and DMK are
numerically the strongest parties in the Congress lead UPA
coalition. End Note.) With unified support from the UPA and
Left and having already captured the BSP electoral votes,
Sonia Gandhi has all but ensured Patil's election to the
Presidential post.

An Intra-Community Contest: Shekhawat vs. Shekhawat
--------------


3. (SBU) On election day, slated for July 19, Patil's
opposition will be Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat.
Despite being a member of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),
Shekhawat announced his candidacy as an Independent. Being
from Rajasthan and the politically influential Thakur caste,
Shekhawat expected to pose a serious threat to any UPA
candidate by cutting into their vote base and winning Thakurs
from other parties. Patil, however is married to Devisingh
Ramsingh Shekhawat, also a Thakur and Shekhawat from
Rajasthan. Bhairon Shekhawat has lost his caste angle and
the race has become an intra-community contest of the son
versus the daughter-in-law.

Opposition Remains Uncommitted And Weakened
--------------


4. (SBU) After reaching an agreement with the Left on a
candidate, Sonia Gandhi and PM Singh reached out to the
Opposition in an effort to gain consensus. Both Leader of
the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, L.K. Advani, and former
Prime Minister of the NDA government Atal Bihari Vajpayee
told Sonia Gandhi and PM Singh that their outreach efforts
were too late. NDA leaders will meet on June 18 to decide
which candidate they will support. The Shiv Sena, a NDA ally

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and Maharashtran based party, however, indicated that it
would be difficult not to support Patil, a fellow
Maharashtran. The new Third Front, a group of former Chief
Ministers, is also expected to meet on June 18 to discuss who
they will support.

Who is Pratibha Devisingh Patil?
--------------


5. (C) Since November 2004, Pratibha Patil has served as the
Governor of Rajasthan. Patil is a long standing member of
the Congress party and die-hard Nehru-Gandhi family
supporter. Elected to the Maharasthra state legislature for
the first time in 1962, Patil served five terms in the state
legislature, including a tenure as Leader of the Opposition
from 1982-1985. In 1985, Patil became a Member of Parliament
in the Rajya Sabha (upper house) and in 1986 she was elected
as the Deputy Chairperson of the Rajya Sabha (1986-88). In
1988, she served as President of the Maharashtra Congress
Party and then was elected to the Lok Sabha (lower house) in

1991. Sonia Gandhi rewarded Patil's Party loyalty by asking
her to take over as the Governor of Rajasthan in 2004.


6. (C) Patil, 72 years old, is known for her "soft and quiet"
nature. However, many Congress party members noted that she
has her own independent streak and a steely resolve. This
became evident in 2005 when the controversial Rajasthan
Anti-Conversion bill came before her for passage and Patil
refused to sign the bill. Similarly, during the May 2007
Gujjar reservation agitation, Patil reined in Rajasthan Chief
Minister Vasundhara Raje, admonishing her for ineffectively
handling the violence.


7. (C) Patil was born on December 19, 1934 in Jalgaon,
Maharashtra. She received a Bachelors Degree in Law and a
Masters Degree in Arts in Mumbai, during which time she was
also a table tennis champion. Before entering politics, she
was a practicing lawyer and social activist, with a special
interest in rural economics and women's education. In July
1965, Patil married Devisingh Ramsingh Shekhawat, a
Rajasthani Thakur. ShekhawaQretired now, was a Congress
Party Member of the Legislative Assembly in Maharashtra and a
social activist. The couple have a son, Rajendrasingh, a
social worker in Jalgaon, who looks after educational
institutions set up by his parent. They also have a
daughter, Jyoti Rathod, an electronic engineer who lives in
Pune. Patil has traveled extensively, including but not
limited to: the U.S., U.K., Austria, Japan, Switzerland, Hong
Kong, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Nairobi, Puerto Rico,
and Bulgaria. She speaks Hindi, Marathi, Gujarati, and
English.

Comment: Sonia Pulls the Strings
--------------


9. (C) Notwithstanding any other upsets or surprises, Patil,
with the support of the UPA, Left, and BSP should sail into
Rashtripati Bhavan (the President's residence). Patil is a
safe choice, whose election will satisfy Sonia Gandhi's
rising influence over Indian domestic politics. Sonia Gandhi
has astutely selected a candidate she will most likely be
able to control; Patil is an uber-Congress and family
loyalist. No doubt, Sonia Gandhi also had the future of her
son, Rahul, in mind when choosing the non-threatening Patil
for the presidency. The one wild card is former Presidential
contender Pranab Mukherjee, who will remain in active
politics and thereby persist as the leading contender to
succeed Manmohan Singh in a future Congress government.


10. (C) While Congress will claim a victory in the election
outcome, the negotiations reminded Sonia Gandhi that Congress
can not operate without support from the Left. The Left
stopped Congress from moving forward with several of its
first choice candidates. Congress was forced to not only
negotiate with its allies and the Left, but toss those aside,

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and dig deeper for more names to clinch the deal. We will
likely see the Left continue to flex its muscles. Whereas
the Left agreed to a Congress candidate for President, they
might be more insistent on one of their own for Vice
President in August.
MULFORD