HOT, TENSE SUMMER AWAITS JAMMU AND KASHMIR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002792

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: HOT, TENSE SUMMER AWAITS JAMMU AND KASHMIR

Classified By: DCM Geoffrey Pyatt, for Reasons 1.5 (B,D)


1. (S) SUMMARY: An unknown group claiming to be Al Qaeda's
Indian wing has made and distributed in Jammu recorded
statements declaring jihad on India. The Indian Army and
several trusted analyst and journalist sources have
scornfully dismissed the claim as a hoax, similar to last
year's publicized claim of Al Qaeda's arrival in J & K.
According to GOI data, infiltration has increased roughly 30
percent compared to last year at this time, and tourism,
especially by foreigners, is drastically down. The annual
Armanath Yatra pilgrimage kicks off on June 20, with
thousands of pilgrims expected to participate, stoking annual
fears that terrorists will target these pilgrims. India's
Home Secretary is visiting J & K this week for the first8time
since taking office to discuss security for the upcoming
pilgrimage. END SUMMARY.

PRESENCE OF AL QAEDA IN JAMMU DOUBTED BY GOI, EXPERTS
-------------- --------------


2. (S) On June 8, 30 copies of a DVD and a written statement
were circulated in Jammu, from persons claiming that a
Kashmiri chapter of Al Qaeda was declaring jihad in India.
The DVD featured a masked man, claiming to represent a group
calling itself Al Qaeda fil,al-Hind (Al Qaeda in India),
exhorting Kashmiri Muslims to rise up against India. He went
on to condemn both factions of the Hurriyat Conference and
Pakistani Kashmir-based United Jihad Council. Post spoke to
our contacts in Kashmir, who noted that this claim comes
almost one year to the day after a similar claim of "Al Qaeda
in Kashmir" was made via a phone call in June 2006 to a news
agency in Srinigar. Last year's claim is widely regarded as
a hoax, since no Al Qaeda activity followed the phone call.
Sajjid Lone, of the People's Conference, Naeem Khan, Chairman
of the J&K National Front, Yusuf Jameel, Asian Age
correspondent, and Izhar Wani, AFP Correspondent in
Srinigar, all told Post this year's claim is likely a hoax or
a diversionary tactic on the part of some other group.


3. (S) Kuldeep Khoda, Additional Director General of Police,
CID, J & K told us that Al Qaeda has not yet disavowed the
group, as it would have been expected to by now, so he thinks
it too early to jump to conclusions either way. Indian media
reported statements by both Hurriyat factions, the United
Jihad Council and even Lashkar-e-Toiba, all of whom claimed
ignorance of this group, and stated their skepticism that it
is the real thing.


4. (S) The Indian Army, speaking to Indian media through an
unidentified &senior official,8 expressed strong doubts
that Al Qaeda is operating in J & K, adding that no radio
interceptions or interrogations have given any support to the
claim. The Army spokesman stated the Army's theory that the
ISI is behind the hoax, to &ensure some amount of
deniability for its cross-border support to militancy.8

INFILTRATION INTO J & K GREATER THAN LAST YEAR
-------------- -


5. (C) Khoda gave Post a June 13 official Indian government
update on infiltration numbers for 2007:

January ) May: 206 (was 162 for the same period in 2006)
April: 82 (was 43 for the same period in 2006)
May: 85 (was 60 for the same period in 2006)

Both Wani and Jameel confirmed that infiltration is on the
rise, and exceeds last year's figures.

TOURISM ON THE WANE
--------------


6. (S) Several Embassy contacts in J & K unanimously

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confirmed to us that tourism has dropped drastically compared
to last year. G.N. Butt, proprietor of Clermont Boat House,
specified that those few coming are domestic, adding that
foreign tourists are staying away. Riaz Shadad of Welcome
Hotel noted that no tourists from Gujarat or Bengal have come
yet this year, when they were expected. Journalists Wani and
Jameel both agreed that tourism was down significantly from
last year, and Wani claimed &a hundred thousand less than
last year.8 Khoda calculated a 30 percent decline in
tourism numbers this year. The hotel and recreation people
are holding out hope for numerous pilgrims to come and make
up for the loss, when the annual Armanath Yatra pilgrimage
kicks off on June 20, and is expected to last two months.

KASHMIRI REACTION TO MUSHARRAF'S CRISIS
--------------


6. (S) Jameel noted that due to President Musharraf's recent
political difficulties, Delhi is putting talks with Pakistan
on the back burner, which means the moderate Kashmiri
position favoring dialogue is going nowhere. Sajjad Lone
added that Musharraf's weaknes{ makes India overconfident and
arrogant, and less willing to work on a Kashmir solution,
preferring to settle scores. This, coupled with Syed Shah
Geelani gaining ground among Kashmiris, is causing the
usually moderate Mirwaiz Umar Farooq to harden his stance.
Naeem Khan, Chairman of the J & K National front (together
with Mirwaiz's Hurriyat) told PoL FSN that he is concerned,
because &Musharraf was flexible and Hurriyat was supporting
his efforts ) we hope he regains his strength.8 Wani and
Lone concurred that the situation in Pakistan, with Musharraf
weakening, is having a negative affect in J & K, and the
Hurriyat is disturbed.

INDIA'S HOME SECRETARY TO VISIT KASHMIR JUNE 13
-------------- -


7. (S) Indian media reports that GOI Home Secretary Madhukar
Gupta will soon travel to J & K for the first time since
taking over his job in March 2007. He will reportedly meet
with J & K Chief Minister Ghulan Nabil Azad and Governor LTG
S.K. Sinha to discuss the security situation, specifically
security arrangements for the pilgrims expected to pour into
J & K this month on the annual Armanath Yatra pilgrimage.
Media reports that the Israeli Deputy Chief of General Staff
Major General Moshe Kaplinsky will also visit J & K at the
same time for talks with Indian Army commanders of the 16th
Corps Headquarters at Nagrota on the outskirts of Jammu.

COMMENT: TROUBLE BREWING IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR?
--------------


8. (S) COMMENT: Media reports suggest trouble is brewing in
J & K, with infiltration definitely on the rise, although
upticks in violence in the region are not unusual at the
onset of summer. The fact that many tourists are staying away
suggests the average Indian may be worried about the
situation, too, and the Home Secretary,s visit to discuss
security indicates that the GOI is concerned as well. The
annual Armanath Yatra pilgrimage has been a target for
terrorists in the past, although security crackdowns in
recent years have prevented most major attacks. While the
Indian Army, analysts and journalists in J & K strongly doubt
the claims of Al Qaeda establishing itself in J & K, the
police remain cautiously skeptical, although no one will
dismiss the potential for a violent attack to occur. END
COMMENT.





MULFORD