INDIA'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE STILL WIDE OPEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002763

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: INDIA'S PRESIDENTIAL RACE STILL WIDE OPEN

REF: NEW DELHI 2678

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)



1. (C) Summary: On June 13, the Indian Election Commission
(EC) notified the Presidential election, stipulating that
Presidential nominations must be filed by June 30. The
election will occur on July 19 and the winner will be
announced July 21. With the election imminent, the ruling
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and the
opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) have stepped up
efforts to identify candidates and consolidate votes. The
UPA continued to leak names of prospective candidates to the
media to test the waters, the latest being that of Home
Minister Shivraj Patil, while the NDA has coalesced around
current Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat (a Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) member, purportedly running as an
independent). Having gained the support of Mayawati's
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP),the UPA appears to have an
unassailable majority, but still needs to convince the Left
to sign on. Although Patil has Sonia Gandhi's support,
pundits are deriding him as a "weak" candidate and warning
that Congress is risking an embarrassing defeat if it backs
him. End Summary.

Getting A Solid Majority
--------------


2. (SBU) To ensure a solid majority of electoral votes for
its Presidential candidate, Congress needs the support of the
Left and BSP. In a June 12 meeting, Congress Secretary
Manish Tewari told PolOffs that the Left could sabotage the
election process if it disapproves of the UPA candidate by
telling its Members of Parliament (MPs) to "vote their
conscience." Without the Left votes, the UPA candidate could
lose -- a humiliating setback for Congress.

Congress Candidates Coming Out of the Woodwork
-------------- -


3. (C) On May 9, Congress released an initial list of three
names: Minister of External Affairs, Pranab Mukherjee,
Minister of Power, Sushilkumar Shinde, and MP/heir of the
Maharaja of Jammu & Kashimir, Karan Singh. After much behind
the scenes machination, Congress backpedaled on Mukherjee,
claiming he was too critical to the UPA and could not be
spared. In a June 12 meeting with PolOff, Hindustan Times
Political Editor Pankaj Vohra revealed that Sonia Gandhi and
BSP leader Mayawati came up with five names: Sushilkumar
Shinde, Karan Singh, Home Minister Shivraj Patil, Minister of
Human Resources and Development, Arjun Singh and N.D. Tiwari,
(a senior Congress leader and former Uttarakhand Chief
Minister).


4. (C) Despite rumors that BSP leader Mayawati does not want
a fellow Dalit to serve in a government post higher than her,
Shinde remains in the running. The Left has rejected Karan
Singh for his royal background and dismissed Patil as a
"political lightweight" with "RSS (a Hindu right wing
organization) connections." The Left additionally accused
Patil of being an ineffective Home Minister who failed to
prevent communal outbreaks in Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh in

2007. While most papers describe Patil as the UPA
front-runner, Vohra did not discount the possibility of N.D.
Tiwari coming up from behind.

Opposition Candidate Poses a Threat
--------------


5. (SBU) The NDA will not announce its candidate until the
UPA has come forward. While speculation abounds on who
Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee will support,
current Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhwat remains the
frontrunner. Shekhawat, running as an Independent candidate,
continues to lobby MPs, and could upset Congress by

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attracting support from within the UPA and the Left.


6. (C) On June 13, PolCouns met with Congress Spokesperson
Jayathni Natarajan, who characterized Shekhawat's bid for
President as "ridiculous." Shekhawat is "amiable" and a
"fine politician," but his support base, according to
Natarajan, was "more exaggerated than fact." She expressed
full faith that the Left and DMK would join forces with
Congress and Sonia Gandhi's Presidential pick would prevail.

Congress: Lining Up Support
--------------


7. (C) Congress President Sonia Gandhi met with BSP leader
Mayawati on June 11. The following day, Mayawati confirmed
that she would support the UPA candidate. The Left continues
to hold its cards close to the chest. Left leaders intended
to meet with Dravida Munetra Kazagham (DMK) Tamil Nadu Chief
Minister K. Karunanidhi on June 13 in an attempt to dissuade
him from supporting Patil. However, Natarajan told PolCouns
on June 13 that Karunanidhi was ill and unable to travel to
Delhi. It is uncertain whether Karunandhi will make it to
Delhi for talks. Karunanidhi and the Left both share an
aversion to Patil, with the DMK Chief favoring Arjun Singh.
The UPA leadership and the Left will continue to meet behind
closed doors to select a consensus candidate and are expected
to announce their decision within the next week.

The Newest Entrants
--------------


8. (C) Press reports that the recently formed "third front"
of regional parties (reftel),spearheaded by former Chief
Ministers J. Jayalalitha, Chandrababu Naidu, and Mulayam
Singh Yadav plans to ask former Jammu and Kashmir Farooq
Abdullah to be its candidate. However, he has not accepted
the offer and remains noncommittal. Dwarfed by the NDA and
UPA, the new front is unlikely to be able to sum up
sufficient votes to make much of a difference in the race.


Comments
--------------


9. (C) Should Congress, its UPA partners, Mayawati and the
Left agree on a consensus candidate, they should have the
election sewed up, as they would enjoy an overwhelming
majority. Neither the NDA nor the recently announced "third
front" could even come close to posing a threat. The
political cognoscente are speculating that Sonia Gandhi has a
strong preference for Shivraj Patil, precisely because he is
a political lightweight and poses no threat to the Gandhi
dynasty. Should any of the Congress old guard such as Pranab
Mukherjee, Arjun Singh or ND Tiwari be elevated to the
Presidency, they would have their own power base, and could
assert their independence and pose a potential threat to
Sonia's plans to promote Rahul Gandhi as the heir apparent.


10. (C) The Left remains close to the Congress old guard and
dismissive of Patil. In his meeting with Poloffs, Manish
Tiwari expressed what he said were nagging fears within the
Congress leadership that the Left could severely embarrass
Sonia by sabotaging the contest. He opined that if Sonia
refuses to relent and insists upon Patil, the Left would feel
slighted and resentful and could urge MPs to vote for
Shekawat rather than Patil. Since the Presidential balloting
is secret, no one can determine how individual MPs and MLAs
cast their vote. Under such a scenario, Congress could wake
up to find Shekawat elected President of India. Much of the
negotiation will go on behind closed doors, but it appears
that Sonia's decision has many within Congress very nervous
and they are urging her to think twice before sticking with
Patil.
MULFORD