A THIRD FRONT GETS OFF TO A SHAKY START

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002678

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: A THIRD FRONT GETS OFF TO A SHAKY START

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On June 6, eight regional parties met in
Hyderabad under the auspices of Telegu Desam Party (TDP)
President N. Chandrababu Naidu and agreed to form a "third
front" aimed at eventually unseating the Congress-led United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) and forming the government. The
joint announcement also denounced the US/India Civil Nuclear
Agreement and UPA Economic policy. In a June 7 meeting with
the Chennai Principal Officer, Naidu was apologetic about the
new grouping's strong negative stance on the Agreement and
offered to work with his new colleagues to have it changed.
The new group was immediately dismissed as inconsequential by
the UPA and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as
well as the Left Front (LF). None of the three big players
seem worried about the move as the coalition has little
credibility. This reflects the current weakness of the Third
Front, which controls only 48 seats in the 545-member
Parliament. In addition, four of the coalition's leaders are
Chief Ministers who have been voted out of office. End
Summary.

A Dramatic Announcement
--------------


2. (U) On June 6, political leaders from eight regional
parties met in the Hyderabad home of Telugu Desam Party (TDP)
President and former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N.
Chandrababu Naidu. At the conclusion of the meeting, they
issued a joint statement announcing the formation of a "third
front," established to challenge the current political
dominance of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
and the Congress-dominated United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
coalitions. In addition to Naidu, participants included
former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalitha (All India
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - AIDMK),and former Uttar Pradesh
Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav (Samajwadi Party - SP),
and leaders of five smaller regional parties. The yet to be
named political grouping's statement derided the India/US
Civil Nuclear Agreement for surrendering "India's nuclear
crown jewels and strategic independence to the United
States," and criticized Prime Minister Manmohan Singh as
"someone willing to do right by the US, not by India." It
also pledged to adopt an "alternative economic policy" to
ensure that "real benefits" reach the common man, while
blaming the UPA's economic policies for contributing to a
"decline in agricultural growth." The group also criticized
the UPA for "giving away farm land at rock bottom prices" for
the creation of Special Economic Zones.

Lands With a Thud
--------------


3. (U) The NDA, UPA and Left Front (LF) quickly dismissed
the new group. A Congress spokesman claimed that "we are not
perturbed. It is a natural process in a democracy. If there
is a healthy Opposition...we will emerge more successful than
before." A BJP spokesman dismissed the group as "a classic
illusion" and opined that he could see no future for a third
front in Indian politics. The Communist Party of India -
Marxist (CPI-M) described the group as "an electoral
get-together with no specific programs and ideas" that was
formed with "elections in mind."

Naidu On the Deal
--------------


4. (C) On June 7, former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister
Chandrababu Naidu met with Chennai Principal Officer and
consulate staff. Naidu confirmed to post that several of his
partners strongly oppose the US/India Civil Nuclear
Agreement. Naidu appeared apologetic about this stance,
especially when we noted that US. was particularly
disappointed that Naidu, with his track record of moderation,
reason, and focus on development, had put his name on such a

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document. Naidu then pledged to go back to his coalition
partners and try to convince them against opposing the
agreement. He then asked for the USG's assessment of the
deal's prospects. We said that Washington and New Delhi are
reflecting on how to proceed. Naidu said he feels that the
deal has no chance of passage in India because the Left
parties are vehemently opposed to it and will prevent the UPA
from finalize the Agreement.

And the New Coalition
--------------


5. (C) Explaining his motivation for joining a coalition
with seven other regional parties, Naidu said the UPA
government led by Congress is weak and has neglected the
economic well-being of India's masses. The new coalition,
currently referred to as the Third Front, may be renamed at a
later date. Naidu maintained that there is broad support
across India's political spectrum for economic
liberalization, but criticized the UPA for failing to spread
the benefits of economic growth. He pointed out that India
creates many new billionaires, but not enough trickles down
to the rest of India. Naidu denied media reports that former
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J. Jayalalithaa would lead the
Third Front. Naidu insisted that no decision had been made
yet, and these issues would be resolved in two weeks when the
parties meet again in Chennai.


6. (C) Noting that the new Third Front was committed to a
secular India, Naidu ruled out any alliance with the BJP,
which he blamed for inciting communal tension. However, he
left open the possibility that the Third Front could
eventually partner with India's Left Parties. He criticized
much of the Left for being too rooted to outdated ideology,
and not recognizing that economic liberalization and
technology are critical to India's development. Naidu was
silent on the possibility of aligning with Congress. (Note:
He did not need to comment, as there is virtually no chance
of such an alliance as long as the Third Front includes
Naidu's TDP, which is the principal Congress rival in Andhra
Pradesh. End Note).

Minimal Impact
--------------


7. (C) As constituted, the group poses no threat to the two
established coalitions, as it controls only 48 seats in the
Lok Sabha. No third front is viable without the
participation of the Left parties and their quick
disparagement of the new group demonstrates that they will
stick with the UPA. Without LF involvement, other regional
parties are unlikely to leave the confines of the UPA or NDA
to join the new group. Four of the eight political leaders
involved in this move are former Chief Ministers who were
voted out of office. This odd melange of large egos is
unlikely to cooperate to mount a serious challenge to
politics as usual. However, representing nine percent of the
Lok Sabha's electoral votes, the new group will try to play a
role in the ongoing race to determine India's next President.



8. (U) CONGEN Chennai and Embassy New Delhi collaborated on
this message.


9. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD