GOVERNMENT AND GUJJARS REACH DEAL: RAJASTHAN LIMPS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002636

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT AND GUJJARS REACH DEAL: RAJASTHAN LIMPS
TO NORMALCY

REF: A. NEW DELHI 2564


B. NEW DELHI 2583

C. NEW DELHI 2624

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: On June 4, Rajasthan Chief Minister (CM)
Vasundhara Raje and Gujjar leader Col. Kirori Singh Bhaisala
reached an agreement that ended the Gujjar agitation. Under
the terms of the compact, the Rajasthan state government will
establish a three-person committee to investigate the Gujjar
demand to change status from the Other Backward Caste (OBC)
to a Scheduled Tribe (ST) category. Such a determination
would enable the community to access reservations designated
for STs in education and jobs. In turn, Bhaisala called off
the Gujjar agitation that began on May 29. Both Meena and
Gujjar leaderships are declaring victory and a sense of
normalcy is slowly returning to the state. Despite a 1981
ruling by the Rajasthan government denying Gujjars ST status,
the community has kept pushing for reconsideration. CM Raje
is under fire for failing to preempt the unrest. While the
current agreement has bought time, it could encourage other
caste groups to mount similar agitations, and further
Gujjar/Meena clashes could follow. The center government
might do well to quell the tide and make decisions about all
caste groups before the waves start coming in. End Summary.

Ending the Agitation
--------------


2. (SBU) On June 4, Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje met Gujjar
leader Col. Kirori Singh Bhaisala in Jaipur to seek a
compromise that could end the violent agitations that began
on May 29. After six hours of intense negotiation, the two
leaders emerged and announced that they had arrived at a
formula. Under the terms of the agreement, the Rajasthan
government promised to establish a high level three-person
committee, chaired by a retired High Court judge and
including an expert on tribal issues and reservations to
examine the Gujjar demand for a change in status. The
committee will issue a report to the state government in
three months. This sets an unusual precedent, as all
previous such determinations were made by a consensus among
District Collectors. Raje was only able to gain Bhaisala's
acquiescence after agreeing to convene a high level committee
to re-examine the issue. After Bhaisala called off the
agitation, roads slowly re-opened and the railways ran extra
trains to bring home passengers stranded throughout the
week-long agitation.

Meena and Gujjar Reactions
--------------


3. (SBU) Both the Meena and Gujjar leaderships are declaring
victory. Meena leaders had threatened to stage new
demonstrations if the Rajasthan government ruled in the
Gujjar's favor. As the Gujjars have retained their OBC
status, the Meenas are satisfied and agreed to return to
their homes. The Gujjar leadership also declared the outcome
to be a victory by claiming that they had wanted such a
committee to examine their status all along. The media
reported that many within the Gujjar community, though
complying with the agreement, felt betrayed. Protestors told
reporters they felt "cheated" and did not understand the
reason they were asked to halt their protest. To them, a
mere report, that demonstrators recognize could conclude
Gujjars are not entitled to ST status, was not worth this
week's loss of life or damage to homes and the economy.

The Struggle to Become ST
--------------


4. (SBU) Since 1977, no additions have been made to the
Rajasthan ST/Scheduled Caste (SC) list. In 1981, a Congress
government rejected the Gujjars' application to be put on the

NEW DELHI 00002636 002 OF 002


ST list, noting "these people are basically milk-sellers and
keep cattle. They are fairly well-off and suffer from no
shyness of contact with people of other castes. Also, they
do not have any primitive traits to be considered for
inclusion in the ST list." More than five years ago, under
the previous Congress government, Gujjars questioned the
"judgement" of the District Collectors who made the 1981
determination. (Note: under rules stipulated by the central
government, District Collectors are tasked with compililng
reports on behalf of the state government whenever a caste is
being considered for inclusion in the ST/SC list. End
Note.). In this instance, CM Raje is being criticized for
agreeing to reconsider the request, and for creating a
special committee to conduct the enquiry, as no other caste
has received such special treatment.


5. (C) Gujjars have long felt cut out of the ever competitive
struggle to move down the social ladder and gain access to
benefits. This unhappiness became especially acute when they
were compelled to share OBC status with the politically
powerful and wealthy Jat community in Rajasthan. The GOI
granted OBC status to the Jats, typically landowners and one
of the ruling communities in the state in 2000, and the
government of Rajasthan folowed suit in 2002. CM Raje hoped
to use a similar tactic with the Gujjars in hopes of bringing
them into the BJP fold, but her strategy backfired when she
was unable to deliver, and her promises sparked a harsh
reaction from the Meenas.

The Future of CM Vasundhara Raje
--------------


6. (C) Political pundits and her own Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) colleagues are doling out harsh criticism of CM Raje
and her handling of the Gujjar situation. In public, the BJP
leadership has claimed that it is "satisfied by the
"harmonious" end to the crisis. In private, the BJP satraps
have condemned Raje for spending too much time out of the
state and not possessing sufficient foresight to recognize a
serious crisis in the works. Raje could have set up a
committee to bury the issue long ago. A long line of people
are queuing up to replace her if the BJP can retain control
of the state in state assembly elections scheduled for
November 2008. The list includes Jaswant Singh, Leader of
the Opposition in the Rajya Sabha, State Home Minister Gulab
Chand Kataria, Education Minister Ghanshyam Tewari, and
former BJP state president Lalit Kishore Chaturvedi.

Comment: Buying Time
--------------


7. (C) It will be difficult for the committee to come up with
a determination regarding the Gujjars status. In India, such
committees have often worked assiduously to put off a
decision for as long as possible, and we expect the same
thing to happen in this instance. Given the demonstrated
fury of the Gujjar community and the diammetrically opposed
demands of the Gujjars and Meenas, any decision would likely
result in widespread violence and demonstrations throughout
Northern India. The committee will probably prefer to let a
sleeping dog lie.


8. (C) Even if Rajasthan never overturns the current decision
on the status of Gujjars, it has potentially opened a
pandora's box. Having seen the ability of the Gujjars to use
violence to get results, other caste groups could mount
similar campaigns in the years ahead. To head off this
prospect, the central government may consider convening a
commission to investigate the impact of affirmative action
and determine which groups still need assistance in climbing
the social ladder. Otherwise, the appeal of the cushion at
the bottom will continue to compel caste groups to the slide
down the ladder regardless of economic need. End Comment.
MULFORD