DELHI DIARY, MAY 24-30

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002563

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM BT IN
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, MAY 24-30

REF: CHENNAI 0281


1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from
Embassy New Delhi for May 24-30, 2007 that did not feature in
our other reporting, including:

-- Left Groups Disparage United Progressive Alliance
Performance
-- Kerala Communist Party Punishes Leaders for Public Feud
-- BJP Hopes for a Toe-hold in South India in Jeopardy
-- Improved Voter Turnout for Second Round of Bhutan Mock
Elections

Left Groups Disparage United Progressive Alliance Performance

--------------


2. (SBU) Just days after the May 22 release of the Prime
Minister's (PM) "Report to the People," the Left unleashed a
storm of criticism of United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
performance. A group of 500 left-leaning non-governmental
organizations and "grass roots organizations" released its
own "People's Report Card," alleging that the UPA had failed
and "was not just ignoring but violating the mandate of the
people that brought it to power." Rejecting the PM's
assertion that "the National Common Minimum Program (NCMP)
has been substantially implemented," the Report Card claimed
that the UPA has achieved less than half of its stated goals,
and awarded it an overall grade of 30 percent for its
performance in education, health, employment, combating
discrimination, decentralizing the government and providing
peace and security. The groups then demanded that the UPA
honor its pledges to provided universal access to public
education, allocate six percent of the Gross Domestic Product
to education, implement the National Rural Health Mission,
ensure a Right to Work for the rural poor by implementing the
National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, and enact the
Scheduled Tribes (Recognition of Forest Rights) Bill, and the
Women's Reservation Bill.


3. (SBU) In an editorial in the Communist Party of India -
Marxist (CPM) journal "Peoples' Democracy," politburo member
Sitaram Yechury called on the UPA to "seriously introspect"
on the areas in which it had not met its NCMP targets.
Conceding that the UPA had undertaken some "positive
measures," Yechury asserted that these "have been initiated,
under pressure from the Left parties...in vital areas, the
promises made in the NCMP are yet to see the light of day."
Yechury maintained that "despite promises that the
profit-making public sector units would not be privatized or
disinvested, there were efforts to negate this," and that
"most serious is the continued neglect of the agricultural
sector," through the UPA's unwillingness to provide the
promised substantial hikes in public investment in
agriculture, rural infrastructure and irrigation, provide
easy access to credit for farmers, and ensure "fair and
remunerative prices for farmers crops, protecting them from
agricultural imports." In Yechury's view, the "most
disconcerting" element of the UPA's performance was its
"relentless pursuit of the neo-liberal agenda of economic
reforms." Although the Left props up the UPA, its criticism
of government performance was in many ways more virulent than
that of the National Democratic Alliance/Bharatiya Janata
Party opposition. This indicates that year four of the UPA
government will likely be just as stormy, if not more so,
than year three.

Kerala Communist Party Punishes Leaders for Public Feud
--------------


4. (U) The CPM suspended Kerala Chief Minister V.S.
Achuthanandan and party State Secretary Pinarayi Vijayan from
the politburo, the CPM's highest policy-making body. The
party's General Secretary announced the punishment on May 26,
explaining that the suspension was the consequence of a
public airing of disagreements between the two leaders. Both
the Chief Minister and the State Secretary will, however,
continue in their respective posts in the state and the

NEW DELHI 00002563 002 OF 002


matter will be discussed further in the party's Central
Committee, scheduled to meet from June 24-26. The running
feud between the two Communist chieftains of Kerala,
described in reftel, had worsened in recent days, resulting
in the politburo's unprecedented action. Both leaders
publicly accepted the punishments, but indications from
Kerala are that the feuding will continue in the lead up to
the 2008 party elections for state office holders. The Chief
Minister's position in particular seems secure because of his
popularity with voters, although some media contacts believe
that he will have to go if the in-fighting worsens.

BJP Hopes for a Toe-hold in South India in Jeopardy
--------------


5. (SBU) The BJP, which has never had a Chief Minister in
south India, is worried that its dream of heading a
government in the region may be in jeopardy. Statements by
leaders from the BJP's coalition partner, the Janata Dal
(Secular) (JD(S)),cast doubt on whether it will honor the
two parties' power-sharing agreement, under which each is due
a twenty month period with its choice as Chief Minister.
Under the terms of the agreement, the JD(S) Chief Minister
H.D. Kumarasamy is due to step down in October 2007. The
JD(S) Labor Minister, Iqbal Ansari, however, recently said
that Kumarasamy would not step down, echoing previous
statements made by former Prime Minister and JD(S) luminary
H.D. Deve Gowda.


6. (SBU) JD(S) contacts told Post that Gowda fears that his
party will lose the Muslim vote, upon which it depends in
part, should it allow the BJP to take control in Karnataka.
A media contact said that JD(S) leaders plan to exploit BJP
legislators' fears that they will lose their seats should the
JD(S) force an election, and plan on splitting the BJP by
offering cabinet positions to BJP legislators who defect to
the JD(S). Despite statements to the contrary, the BJP state
Industries Minister said he expects the JD(S) to honor the
bargain between the parties. Congress, for its part, is
waiting in the wings with a Congress official telling Post
that his party expects to win the next election handily and
is content to watch the JD(S)/BJP coalition collapse.
Comment: If the rumblings are correct that JD(S) will
abandon the power-sharing agreement, the BJP's hopes of
establishing a toe-hold in south India will be dashed. End
comment.

Improved Voter Turnout for Second Round of Bhutan Mock
Elections
--------------


7. (SBU) The Government of Bhutan successfully staged the
second of two mock elections on May 28 in preparation for
actual elections scheduled to take place sometime in 2008.
At the conclusion of the first round of mock voting April 21,
Bhutan,s Chief Election Commissioner Dasho Kunzang Wangdi
expressed his disappointment to the press that only 50
percent of those eligible to register took part. The
Bhutanese Embassy in New Delhi and the website for the
Bhutanese Election Commissioner reported that the turnout for
the May 28 round was better, with 36,000 more voters casting
votes, an increase from 51 to 57 percent of registered voters
participating. Reuters reported that two Indian voter
observers were on hand, as well as the Resident Coordinator
for the Liaison Office of Denmark, and the head of the UN
Development Program in Bhutan.
MULFORD