DELHI DIARY, MAY 10-17

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002360

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PHUM MASS PINR SOCI PK IN
SUBJECT: DELHI DIARY, MAY 10-17


Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (U) Below is a compilation of political highlights from
Embassy New Delhi for May 10-17, 2007 that did not feature in
our other reporting, including:

-- Handicapping the Presidential Race
-- The Mysterious Process of Indian Presidential Elections
-- Next Phase of India-Pakistan Composite Dialogue
-- Integrated Defense Staff Chief Points Finger at U.S. for
Lack of Defense Sales
-- Spiritual Organization in Punjab Stirs Up Communal Tensions
-- To Curb Trafficking, Women Under 30 Banned from Working in
the Gulf

Handicapping the Presidential Race
--------------


2. (C) Now that the Uttar Pradesh (UP) election is over,
attention has shifted to the race for the Presidency. The
term of President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam expires in July and five
names have emerged as the prime contenders. According to
press reports, Congress has approached its United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) allies (and the Left Front) with three names:
External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Power Minister
Sushil Kumar Shinde and ex-Maharajah and Jammu and Kashmir
Chief Minister Karan Singh. Our Communist and Congress Party
contacts say the Left favors Pranab Mukherjee or Sushil
Shinde, and has ruled out the former Maharajah, whose royal
blood is anathema. Some reports speculate that some
Communists are pushing for the election of Lok Sabha Speaker
Somnath Chatterjee. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would
like to promote Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekawat into
the top job, although some are also suggesting former PM Atal
Bihari Vajpayee. One opposition Member of Parliament (MP)
told us Vajpayee is toying with the idea, and could also be a
popular choice.


3. (C) The UP election outcome has changed the dynamics.
The humiliation of the BJP in UP has reduced its influence
over the selection process. It now appears that Congress
will work closely to select a "secular" candidate favorable
to all non-BJP parties. A front-runner seems to be Foreign
Minister Pranab Mukherjee. Although a Congressman, Mukherjee
is a Bengali like much of the Communist leadership and has
worked closely with the Communists in his home state for many
years. Mayawati, who now has a large influence over the
selections, may acquiesce. The Communists have taken a lead
role in the selection process and have been instrumental in
arranging the "consensus" required. Communist leader Sitaram
Yechury told PolCouns May 17 that the Left was determined to
push for a politician, who understands parliament and party
dynamics, so that he can act appropriately to help form a
government after the 2009 parliamentary elections. If
Mukherjee were elected, he would no longer be a rival to PM
Singh, or to pretenders such as Arjun Singh or Home Minister
Shivraj Patel. The process remains fluid, and is a barometer
of UPA coalition health, so watch this space.

Unraveling the Mysterious Process of Indian Presidential
Elections
--------------


4. (U) The President is elected by an electoral college
consisting of (a) elected members of both houses of
Parliament (MPs),and (b) elected members of the legislative
assemblies of the states (MLAs)(including New Delhi and
Pondicherry, and excluding all other union territories.)
Each electoral college member has a vote value. This vote
value is determined as follows:


5. (U) For an MP, the vote value is fixed at 708 per member.
There are 776 MPs (Lok Sabha 543 Rajya Sabha 233),
therefore the total value of parliamentary votes would be
549,408, or 708 multiplied by 776. (Note: Nominated members
cannot vote. End note.)


6. (U) For an MLA, the vote value is the total population of

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the state (based upon the 1971 census) divided by one
thousand times the number of elected legislators. For
example, the vote value of an MLA from Andhra Pradesh (AP)
would be calculated as:


7. (U) The population of AP in 1971 was 43,502,708, and the
number of MLAs 294; therefore, the vote value of each MLA
would be 43,502,708/294,000 = 147.96 (rounded off to 148).


8. (U) Thus, a legislator from a more populous state like UP
would have greater vote value as compared to one from a less
populated state, such as Sikkim.


9. (U) On the day of polling, a secret ballot is conducted
in the Parliament House and in the State Assemblies. The
results are announced the next day.


10. (U) Political parties try to evolve a consensus while
making a choice for the President. This is not to say that
no contest occurs for the position. It does occur every
time, but one can deduce the winner (invariably, the
candidate supported by the party or group ruling at the
center) well before the actual polling date.

Next Phase of India-Pakistan Composite Dialogue
--------------


11. (C) India and Pakistan announced on May 12th the dates
for the working-level fourth round of Composite Dialogue.
The first will be Home Secretary)level talks on terrorism
and drug trafficking in New Delhi on June 3rd and 4th. The
second will be between Indian and Pakistani Water Resources
Secretaries on the Tulbal Navigation Project (or Wullar

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Barrage, as Pakistan calls it) on June 26th and 27th in New
Delhi. (Note: This dispute is over a project India started
in 1984 to build a barrier on the Jhelum River across the
mouth of the Wular Lake near Srinagar to aid in navigation of
the waterway during dry months between October and February.
While the Government of Pakistan says the structure would
&control8 the water from the Jhelum River flowing to
Pakistan, violating the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, the
Government of India says it is only "impounding" the waters
to build a navigation structure and therefore would not
violate the treaty. End note.) On June 28th and 29th, the
two sides will hold Cultural Secretary talks in Islamabad on
&friendly exchanges in various fields.8 Commerce
Secretary-level talks will then be held on economic and

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commercial cooperation in New Delhi from July 31st to August
1st, followed by a meeting of the joint study group on August
2nd. Traditionally, India and Pakistan have not released the
results of the working-level phase of Composite Dialogue
until the final Foreign Minister-level phase of the talks,
which is held at the end of each round.

Integrated Defense Staff Chief Points Finger at U.S. for Lack
of Defense Sales
--------------


12. (C) Integrated Defense Staff (IDS) chief General Lidder
received our visiting White House Fellows May 16, and offered
a refreshingly candid, albeit personal and not necessarily
upbeat, assessment of India's military and our bilateral
security relationship. In response to a question about how we
can enhance our defense cooperation, Lidder immediately went
on the offensive, placing the blame for a lack of defense
sales on the U.S. Citing a four-year old Foreign Military
Sales order for special operations equipment, which he
claimed was made not because the U.S. had superior equipment
but because India was looking to build a relationship, Lidder
stated the order is still unfulfilled and suggested the U.S.
is unreliable as a supplier. "You need to honor a contract,"
he said, telling the questioner to go back and get the facts
on the U.S. as a supplier in the past. He also complained
about excessive American export laws.


13. (C) Asked about Afghanistan, Lidder said India was ready
to put boots on the ground right now, but immediately warned
that such a move would forever change the equation in South

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Asia, as India would expect to stay in Afghanistan to assure
it doesn't become "a jihadi factory" again. He did not
expect Indian troops to be invited anyway, and added India is
happy to let NATO "drain the swamp."


14. (C) Comment: It's important to note that Lidder was
providing the White House Fellows with his personal views,
and his comments certainly deviated from official Government
of India policy, but nevertheless it was an interesting and
candid perspective on this important Indian official's
thinking. On other topics, General Lidder gave an inspiring
definition of leadership. Two quotes of note: "The only
method that works in a crisis is 'follow me,' but you, as
leader, have to be ready to walk into the fire;" and, on
being an armed soldier, "When time comes for you to play God,
will you be ready to accept it?" He also offered good advice
on how to battle insurgencies, and said the Indian army does
not place women in combat positions because it values them
too much. The Fellows were treated to an insightful hour.
End Comment.

Spiritual Organization in Punjab Stirs Up Communal Tensions
--------------


15. (U) On May 12, Sant Gurmeet Singh Ram Rahim, the head of
the Dera Sacha Sauda spiritual sect, allegedly committed
blasphemy by dressing up as the tenth Guru of Sikhism. By
May 14, Sikhs brandishing swords took to the streets
throughout Punjab and burned effigies of Rahim. Over the
course of three days, the protests, resulting in small,
isolated incidents of violence, had spread from Punjab to
Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Madhya Pradesh and New
Delhi. The press reported clashes between Dera supporters
and Sikh protesters.


16. (SBU) Having just taken office in February 2007, Punjab
Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal is blaming the Congress
party for stirring up communal tensions in the state to
destabilize his new government. Dera Sacha Sauda did support
the Congress in the previous election; however, UPA Home
Minister Shivraj Patil is assuring support to Punjab in
containing the violence and bringing peace back to the state.
Rahim is an eccentric character who likes to dress up when
he appears in public. Rahim claims that he was not dressed
up as the tenth Guru and the entire episode is a mistake.
However, he declared he will not apologize since, "his people
are being attacked."

Women Under 30 Banned from Working in the Gulf
--------------


17. (SBU) To curb trafficking, the GOI has reportedly
banned women under 30, ostensibly seeking work as domestic
help in foreign lands, from emigrating to countries that
require emigration clearance. This ban will affect receiving
states in the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait,
Qatar, Oman),Malaysia, Syria, Jordan, Afghanistan, Thailand,
Indonesia, Iraq, Brunei, Nigeria, Sudan, and Libya. The good
news is that the Ministry of Women and Child Development
(MWCD) is now talking to the Ministry of Overseas Indian
Affairs about trafficking into abusive labor situations. The
bad news is that there is now a heavy-handed proposed ban
which includes an unenforceable requirement that Indian
nationals turn in their passports to Indian embassies
overseas as a form of protection (based on a model used by
Singapore). The move was prompted by MWCD Minister Renuka
Chowdhury after she had returned from Kuwait. INL notes that
Chowdhury has made other public pronouncements in the past
that, while coming from the right place, were not well
thought out and never became public policy. (Note: While
media is reporting the ban as a done deal, we suspect it is
still just a proposal. End note.)
PYATT