MAYAWATI VICTORY IN UTTAR PRADESH ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002268

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SCUL KDEM KISL IN
SUBJECT: MAYAWATI VICTORY IN UTTAR PRADESH ELECTION
DEVASTATES BJP AND CONGRESS

REF: NEW DELHI 2266

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)

Upsetting the Apple Cart
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1. (C) Mayawati's decisive victory in the just-concluded
Uttar Pradesh (UP) elections will reverberate throughout
India and has serious implications for the UPA government in
New Delhi and for India/US relations. Projections now place
her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) party just a hair's breath away
from forming the UP government without relying on any other
party, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) has been severely
damaged. The implications for the two national parties --
the BJP and Congress -- have been particularly devastating.

Possible Consequences for Congress
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2. (C) An insider told Poloff that the party has been
totally demoralized by the UP outcome. It demonstrated that
Congress was unable to attract the key constituencies of
Brahmins, Dalits, and Muslims that it needs to ensure
stability and continued electoral success in India's UP
heartland. Instead, all three have gone to the BSP in
droves. We can now expect Mayawati to take her winning
combination into other states, where she will try to undercut
Congress by tapping into lower caste resentment over unequal
economic growth. The Congress leadership is purportedly
meeting behind closed doors to discuss how to respond. One
proposal would reorganize the All India Congress Committee,
after apportioning blame for the defeat. Congress projected
Rahul Gandhi as the "savior" of UP and his failure to deliver
victory is a stunning setback and embarrassment for the
Gandhi family. Party loyalists remain reluctant to criticize
Rahul Gandhi, whose "road shows" had no apparent impact on
the election, but we can expect a storm of media criticism in
the weeks ahead. We expect party President Sonia Gandhi to
act quickly to save her son's chances for political
advancement. To do so, she must ensure a period of
"healing," by steering Congress towards a more cautious
stance and getting Rahul out of the limelight. To avoid
further controversy, the party may ratchet down its support
for economic reform and other pro-US positions.

Possible Consequences for the BJP
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3. (C) The BJP apparently scored one of its worst
performances ever in UP, likely losing more than half of its
existing seats in the Assembly. In the days leading up to
the election, the BJP leadership in UP was very worried about
the BSP strategy of forming a Dalit/Brahmin combination. The
BJP had always counted on the support of the Brahmins and
upper castes and was well aware that if the Brahmins
departed, it would undercut the party's chances. As the
campaign progressed and it became apparent that growing
numbers of UP Brahmins were switching from the BJP to the
BSP, an increasingly desperate party leadership toyed with a
number of ideas on how to stem the defections. At the urging
of the hard-line RSS/Hindutva elements, they decided to
release a blatantly anti-Muslim DVD in hopes that "Hinduism
under attack" would convince the Brahmins to stay. This
strategy backfired, failing to keep the Brahmins inside the
BJP fold and exposing the party to attack and ridicule in the
media. Now on the defensive after the party's severe
drubbing in UP, the BJP could become more divided than ever,
as the Hindutva wing becomes more defensive and the moderates
more despondent. Talk of pro-BJP momentum after earlier
state level electoral victories is now likely to be
forgotten, exacerbating the BJP's crisis of leadership and
confusion over who will head the party's next generation.


NEW DELHI 00002268 002 OF 002


Possible Consequences for the Left
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4. (C) Congress' poor showing has increased speculation that
an emboldened Left will increase its demands in exchange for
propping up the UPA government. There are growing rumors
that the Left and some within Congress will blame the
pro-American, pro-Capitalist camp for the poor showing, and
the Left could press for a Cabinet reshuffle to replace
"pro-American" Cabinet Ministers with those more amenable to
the Left. Particularly vulnerable in this regard is Finance
Minister Chidambaram, who pro-taxation policies have made
many enemies. The Communists are also said to be pressing
hard for Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee to be the UPA's
candidate to replace Abdul Kalam as President. So far, the
Communists seem to have targeted individual Cabinet Ministers
rather than going after the Prime Minister.

Possible Consequences for the Samajwadi Party
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5. (C) This election was a life or death struggle for
Mulayam Singh Yadav, as Mayawati has pledged to destroy him
if she formed the government. We are hearing that a panicked
Yadav is appealing to his Communist friends to keep him and
his close associates out of jail and save his party from
irrelevance. The Left parties (most particularly the CPI-M)
must now decide how far they are willing to go to save
Mulayam. If they allow Mulayam to be destroyed, it would
eliminate a key component of a future "third front"
government and buy Manmohan Singh some political breathing
room. In this regard, Mulayam purportedly hopes that Left
pressure will convince Congress to restrain Mayawati's
instincts for revenge.


6. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
PYATT