Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07NEWDELHI2140
2007-05-04 11:14:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
BSP MAINTAINS ITS LEAD IN UTTAR PRADESH SIXTH
how-toVZCZCXRO5542 OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHPW DE RUEHNE #2140/01 1241114 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 041114Z MAY 07 FM AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5368 INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6091 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 3541 RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 2042 RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1147 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 4925 RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEIDN/DNI WASHINGTON DC RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 4585 RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 6855 RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002140
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SCUL KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BSP MAINTAINS ITS LEAD IN UTTAR PRADESH SIXTH
PHASE POLLING
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2092
B. NEW DELHI 1946
C. NEW DELHI 1915
D. NEW DELHI 1699
E. NEW DELHI 1675
F. NEW DELHI 1508
Classified By: A/PolCouns Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (B,D)
Another Peaceful Election Day
-----------------------------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002140
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SCUL KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BSP MAINTAINS ITS LEAD IN UTTAR PRADESH SIXTH
PHASE POLLING
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2092
B. NEW DELHI 1946
C. NEW DELHI 1915
D. NEW DELHI 1699
E. NEW DELHI 1675
F. NEW DELHI 1508
Classified By: A/PolCouns Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (B,D)
Another Peaceful Election Day
--------------
1. (U) The sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) election
took place without significant problems on May 3. Polling
was conducted in 52 constituencies in nine districts in a
remote area of southeastern UP. Three of the districts are
home to Naxalite activity, but they did not emerge from their
jungle hideouts to challenge the polls. Participation, at 45
percent of the eligible voters, was less than the 51.8
percent recorded in 2002. This decline may have been due to
the efforts of the Election Commission, which reduced the
incidence of fraudulent voting. The UP election will
conclude on May 8, when 59 constituencies will go to the
polls. Results will appear May 11.
The Pattern Continues
--------------
2. (U) Notoriously unreliable exit polls confirmed the
continued BSP dominance of the election. There was a
statistically insignificant difference between the BJP and
SP, who were both tied for second place. The NDTV exit poll
predicted the following outcome for the sixth phase:
BSP -- 19-23
BJP -- 9-13
SP -- 9-13
Congress -- three
The state-wide projection was as follows:
BSP -- 120-130
BJP -- 110-120
SP -- 110-120
Congress -- 35-45
Others -- 10-20
Communists Play it Cool
--------------
3. (C) In a May 4 meeting with Poloff, Muhammad Salim a
CPI(M) MP and Deputy Head of the party delegation in the Lok
Sabha, distanced himself from the SP, which has been a
long-time ally of the Left Front. Salim concurred with the
common assessment that the SP would take a beating in this
election and was unlikely to form the government, but opined
that the exit polls were over-estimating the extent of the SP
loss. Salim pointed out that while the SP will take a big
hit in Western and Central UP, it will do better than
expected in Eastern UP, where it maintains a strong base.
Salim confirmed that the CPI(M) has not aligned with the SP
in this election as it did in 2002 and is running 14
candidates on its own this time. He maintained that the UP
election would have a significant impact on India's national
politics. Salim refused to confirm that the LF would back
the UPA in the 2009 elections, stating that the Communists
would give serious consideration to a "third front." Salim
NEW DELHI 00002140 002 OF 002
noted that the BJP has seriously inflated its chances in UP
and estimated that it will "do slightly better or slightly
worse," but there is no popular wave of support for Hindutva,
as the people are in no mood for communal violence.
Can Mayawati Cross the Line?
--------------
4. (C) While Indian exit polls are unreliable and of limited
value, they have repeatedly indicated that the BSP will
emerge from this election as the largest party in UP, which
is the overwhelming consensus among UP watchers. The polling
breaks down, however, when it attempts to provide accurate
seat counts. The exit polls indicate that Mayawati will fall
a good 70 seats short of a majority, and even with Congress
support, she cannot make up such a huge deficit. Despite the
polls, however, the pro BSP wave could propel Mayawati's BSP
close enough to the required 202 seats to form the
government. Salim's comments indicate that the CPI(M) is
closely looking at the outcome of the UP election. If the BJP
does not do well, this could lead LF leaders to conclude that
there is no impending BJP wave, and they can then start
giving serious consideration to a possible "third front" for
the 2009 contest. While worried about a possible BJP
revival, the UPA and its economic and foreign policies remain
the number one target of Communist ire and fear.
5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
PYATT
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER SCUL KDEM IN
SUBJECT: BSP MAINTAINS ITS LEAD IN UTTAR PRADESH SIXTH
PHASE POLLING
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2092
B. NEW DELHI 1946
C. NEW DELHI 1915
D. NEW DELHI 1699
E. NEW DELHI 1675
F. NEW DELHI 1508
Classified By: A/PolCouns Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (B,D)
Another Peaceful Election Day
--------------
1. (U) The sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) election
took place without significant problems on May 3. Polling
was conducted in 52 constituencies in nine districts in a
remote area of southeastern UP. Three of the districts are
home to Naxalite activity, but they did not emerge from their
jungle hideouts to challenge the polls. Participation, at 45
percent of the eligible voters, was less than the 51.8
percent recorded in 2002. This decline may have been due to
the efforts of the Election Commission, which reduced the
incidence of fraudulent voting. The UP election will
conclude on May 8, when 59 constituencies will go to the
polls. Results will appear May 11.
The Pattern Continues
--------------
2. (U) Notoriously unreliable exit polls confirmed the
continued BSP dominance of the election. There was a
statistically insignificant difference between the BJP and
SP, who were both tied for second place. The NDTV exit poll
predicted the following outcome for the sixth phase:
BSP -- 19-23
BJP -- 9-13
SP -- 9-13
Congress -- three
The state-wide projection was as follows:
BSP -- 120-130
BJP -- 110-120
SP -- 110-120
Congress -- 35-45
Others -- 10-20
Communists Play it Cool
--------------
3. (C) In a May 4 meeting with Poloff, Muhammad Salim a
CPI(M) MP and Deputy Head of the party delegation in the Lok
Sabha, distanced himself from the SP, which has been a
long-time ally of the Left Front. Salim concurred with the
common assessment that the SP would take a beating in this
election and was unlikely to form the government, but opined
that the exit polls were over-estimating the extent of the SP
loss. Salim pointed out that while the SP will take a big
hit in Western and Central UP, it will do better than
expected in Eastern UP, where it maintains a strong base.
Salim confirmed that the CPI(M) has not aligned with the SP
in this election as it did in 2002 and is running 14
candidates on its own this time. He maintained that the UP
election would have a significant impact on India's national
politics. Salim refused to confirm that the LF would back
the UPA in the 2009 elections, stating that the Communists
would give serious consideration to a "third front." Salim
NEW DELHI 00002140 002 OF 002
noted that the BJP has seriously inflated its chances in UP
and estimated that it will "do slightly better or slightly
worse," but there is no popular wave of support for Hindutva,
as the people are in no mood for communal violence.
Can Mayawati Cross the Line?
--------------
4. (C) While Indian exit polls are unreliable and of limited
value, they have repeatedly indicated that the BSP will
emerge from this election as the largest party in UP, which
is the overwhelming consensus among UP watchers. The polling
breaks down, however, when it attempts to provide accurate
seat counts. The exit polls indicate that Mayawati will fall
a good 70 seats short of a majority, and even with Congress
support, she cannot make up such a huge deficit. Despite the
polls, however, the pro BSP wave could propel Mayawati's BSP
close enough to the required 202 seats to form the
government. Salim's comments indicate that the CPI(M) is
closely looking at the outcome of the UP election. If the BJP
does not do well, this could lead LF leaders to conclude that
there is no impending BJP wave, and they can then start
giving serious consideration to a possible "third front" for
the 2009 contest. While worried about a possible BJP
revival, the UPA and its economic and foreign policies remain
the number one target of Communist ire and fear.
5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
PYATT