HINDU RIGHT WINGER SAYS CLEAR-CUT NEPAL POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002126

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR NP IN
SUBJECT: HINDU RIGHT WINGER SAYS CLEAR-CUT NEPAL POLICY
NEEDED TO PREVENT JUNE UPRISING IN KATHMANDU

REF: A. NEW DELHI 1921

B. KATHMANDU 00856

Classified By: Acting PolCouns Atul Keshap for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Commerce, Law and Justice Minister,
Dr. Subramanian Swamy, President of the Janata Party, gave
DepPolCouns May 1 a read-out of his April 26 visit to Nepal.
Swamy said he met one-on-one with the following:

-- King Gyanendra
-- Gyanendra's son Crown Prince Paras
-- Prime Minister G.P. Koirala
-- the Ambassadors of India, China and Israel
-- Rashtriya Prajatantra (National Democratic) Party
President Pashupati Rana
-- former Prime Minister Tulsi Giri
-- former Deputy Prime Minister Shailaja Acharya
-- Pashupati Dayal Mishra, Chairman, Loktantrik Madhesi
Morcha (Democratic Madhesi Front)
-- Thakur Singh Tharu, Vice Chairman, Tharu Kalyan Karani

Swamy suggested that the Maoists were out to sabotage free
and fair elections in Nepal, and warned that trouble could
ensue as soon as June, when the Maoists might "bully" the
Nepali Congress into declaring Nepal a republic and
postponing elections. This would incite Madhesis and the
Nepali Army (NA),both of which he described as sympathetic
to the monarchy, into action, he said. Swamy contended that
the Government of India (GOI) needed to take an active role
in ensuring that there were enough election observers to hold
free and fair elections no later than November, that the
monarch stayed in place and Nepal was not declared a
republic, and that the "democratic parties" of Nepal worked
together and maintained law and order. India's Rashtriya
Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Hindu organization would be
approaching the GOI on the issue soon, he stated, and he
would suggest that the GOI convene a conference to clarify
and strengthen its Nepal policy. Swamy doubted the United
Progressive Alliance government would take needed steps due
to the support it derives from the Left. END SUMMARY.

Declaring a Republic Could Bring Trouble in June
--------------


2. (C) In a May 1 read-out of Former Commerce, Law and
Justice Minister and Janata Party President, Dr. Subramanian
Swamy's April 26-27 visit to Nepal, Swamy told DepPolCouns
that those he met with held a "near unanimous" view that the
Maoists would seek to sabotage a free and fair election for
fear of losing badly, while the Madhesis and Janajatis could
make substantial gains. He opined that a "flash point" might
come as early as June 2007, when the Maoists might "bully"
the Nepali Interim Parliament into declaring Nepal a republic
and postponing elections. (Note: Media reports quoted
Maoist leader Prachanda as stating May 1, "If the legislature
fails to declare Nepal a republican state, we will launch a
total movement from the streets, cantonments, Parliament and
the Government." End note.) This, he said, would be a
double victory for the Maoists, eliminating elections and the
monarchy in one fell swoop. Swamy also suggested that most
Nepalis support a constitutional monarchy versus a republic,
and said he felt that the King had gained in strength since
April 2006, especially among ethnic minority Madhesis, Tharus
and Janajatis, and among the Nepali armed forces. All of
these groups would act, and trouble would ensue, if the
Maoists were able to convince the Interim Parliament to
declare Nepal a republic in June, he said. Swamy cited
lawlessness and Maoist violence and extortion as causes for
this newfound support of the monarch.

Swamy's Recipe for Success: Hold November Elections, Keep
the Monarchy, and Unify the Democratic Parties
--------------


3. (C) Swamy made three suggestions, which he intended to
bring to the attention of the GOI, including:

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-- Ensuring there were enough election observers to hold a
free and fair election by November, and not establishing a
republic prior to Constituent Assembly elections

-- Finding a place for the monarch, which he contended had
the support of the minorities, the NA, as well as PM Koirala,
whom he said preferred to retain the king as a "buffer"
against the Maoists.

-- Bringing the factious Congress Party and other
"democratic" elements together with the Madhesis to form a
stronger democratic base. Swamy maintained that the Maoists
were banking on people's desire for law and order, and
therefore, the democratic parties needed to pull together and
begin maintaining peace.

India Needs a Clear, Well-stated Nepal Policy
--------------


4. (C) Swamy stated that the rightist, pro-monarchy
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Hindu organization would
call a meeting to "define a policy" on Nepal, and that it
planned to call upon the Indian Foreign Minister soon. Swamy
emphasized that the GOI needed to have a "clear, well-stated
Nepal policy" that spelled out objectives, priorities,
strategy and a focus on "opinion mobilization." He planned
to suggest that the GOI convene a conference for this
purpose. Swamy suggested that the USG's "tough line" on
Nepal had been working and should not change.

Gyanendra Invited Swamy
--------------


5. (C) Swamy asserted that he had visited Nepal at King
Gyanendra's invitation, and noted that the King's now
deceased brother Birendra (Note: A victim of the 2001 royal
family massacre. End note) had been a student at Harvard
when Swamy taught there in the 1960's. Swamy relayed that he
asked the King point-blank if he were guilty of committing
the 2001 royal massacre. King Gyanendra responded that he
would have been convicted by now if he had been guilty,
claimed Swamy.

Chinese Won't Rock the Boat
--------------


6. (C) The Chinese Ambassador said he had no contact with
the Maoists, according to Swamy, who opined that the Chinese
wouldn't "rock the boat" in Nepal because events are moving
in their strategic favor.

India Not Likely to Change Its Current Course
--------------


7. (C) Comment: Post does not doubt that Swamy, in concert
with rightist Hindu groups such as the RSS and VHP, will
bring his agenda to the attention of the GOI. He has the
contacts to do so, and met with Foreign Minister Mukherjee
after meeting with DepPolCouns April 23 (see reftel a).
Whether or not the GOI will take his advice is another
matter. The current government is hypersensitive to the
wishes of its Left partners, which are sympathetic to the
Maoists, and is therefore not likely to intervene, nor change
its course, on Nepal. End comment.


8. (U) We coordinated this message with Embassy Kathmandu.
PYATT