MUKHERJEE'S PAKISTAN TRIP YIELDS LITTLE FOR INDIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000209

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: MUKHERJEE'S PAKISTAN TRIP YIELDS LITTLE FOR INDIA

NEW DELHI 00000209 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius, Reason 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. Indian Foreign Minister Mukherjee met with
Pakistani leaders in Islamabad on January 13th and 14th,
announcing that Pakistani Foreign Minister Kasuri will visit
New Delhi in February, inaugurating the next round of
composite dialogue with Foreign Secretary talks on March 13th
and 14th, and inviting Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz
-- not President Musharraf -- to the SAARC summit this
spring. President Musharraf's refusal to attend SAARC,
unless Prime Minister Singh visits Pakistan first, was seen
in Indian press as a slight against New Delhi as reports for
weeks here said Mukherjee would pass the SAARC invitation to
Musharraf. PM Singh in recent weeks has been touting his
efforts to soften borders between India and Pakistan using
the European Union-model envisioned by SAARC in his campaign
speeches for upcoming state-level elections in Punjab, but
press reports here noted that Pakistan refused again to grant
India a free trade agreement. Nonetheless, the full schedule
of composite dialogue announced for the coming months -- with
the start of a Sir Creek survey, technical level talks on
Siachen, and Mukherjee's statements that India would consider
anything short of redrawing borders to resolve the Kashmir
dispute -- speak as much about positive atmospherics between
the two countries as they do about the heavy weight of the
issues at hand. That said the GOI firmly tamped down
Pakistani exuberance over a possible breakthrough, and the
press here echoed those views. While progress continues, so,
too, does the hard slog on difficult issues. End Summary.

Talks Still Churning Forward
--------------


2. (C) The press in India gave a lukewarm response to the
weekend talks, with special emphasis on Mukherjee and
Kasuri's announcement that the first Joint Anti-Terror
Mechanism meeting will be held in March. Indian press
predictably paid little notice to the main CBM forthcoming
from the trip, an agreement to prevent accidental use of
nuclear weapons, which both sides plan to sign when Kasuri
travels to India in February. Musharraf's commitment to set
up a Committee on Prisoners to search for Indian POW's held
in Pakistan since the 1965 and 1971 wars also received a
positive reaction in India, although family members of 54
potential POW's told reporters that they remained skeptical
because they were not given access to prisons to search for
their loved ones during similar past trips. Former High
Commissioner to Pakistan G. Parthasarthy scoffed at the
meager results of Mukherjee's visit, telling PolCouns that
India should not have fumbled the SAARC invitation,
especially given advance signals from Pakistan that it would
not be accepted.

BJP/Army Raising Political Road Blocks
--------------


3. (C) Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders
responded to the visit with accusations that Mukherjee had
let the Pakistanis off the hook on terrorism, allowing talks
to continue with no mention of numerous recent arrests of
Pakistan-based terrorists in Bangalore and New Delhi. The
BJP also accuses Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
Division of funding massacres by terrorists in Assam against
the state's minority Hindi-speaking population. Indian Army
leaders also raised their voices publicly again against any
agreement on the Siachen dispute that would allow Pakistan

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latitude to attempt to retake the area.

Terrorist Attack Sends Message to the Mirwaiz
--------------


4. (C) Terrorists meanwhile lobbed a grenade close to All
Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leader Mirwaiz Omar
Farooq's house on January 15th. The Mirwaiz was already on
his way to New Delhi at the time in preparation for his trip
January 17th to Islamabad, and there were no injuries due to
the attack. Press reports say the Mirwaiz responded
defiantly to the terrorists' blatant warning -- saying he
would not be deterred from his efforts to resolve the Kashmir
dispute and bring peace to the Srinagar Valley. Moderate
Separatist Bilal Lone told Senior Pol FSN that the APHC
delegation plans to leave for Islamabad on January 18th,
although talks with Prime Minister Singh either may be off
the table again or may take place on their return.

PM Needs Pakistan's Support
--------------


5. (C) Comment: The Prime Minister will need cooperation
from Islamabad if he has any chance of agreeing to a trip to
Pakistan in the coming months, given the political opposition
he faces from the right. The Army's voice in India is also a
significant political hurdle for Prime Minister Singh on the
Siachen issue. If Pakistan is looking for concessions from
India on Siachen in exchange for movement on Sir Creek,
progress on both will be slow in coming. Siachen is the
single issue on which India risks losing territory to
Pakistan if it agrees to withdraw without extending the Line
of Control, because, as Army leaders frequently point out,
geography gives Pakistan the upper hand in any race to regain
the territory. The BJP has yet to capitalize fully on the
political issues surrounding the talks, but if they succeed
in keeping public attention more focused on terrorism than
the positive implications of peace with Pakistan, they may
gain ground in coming elections in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh
and further weaken the Prime Minister's bargaining power.
Even as India races ahead with ASEAN and China trade,
Pakistan's efforts to use SAARC as a bargaining chip also
undermine the Prime Minister's very personal interest in
resolving India's dispute with Pakistan by laughing in the
face of his dream of softening the borders between the two
Punjabs enough to have "breakfast in Amritsar, lunch in
Lahore, and dinner in Kabul." The slim net result of
Mukherjee's visit explains the lukewarm reaction in the media
here, as well as the clear GOI efforts to signal that
Pakistani exuberance over any imminent breakthrough is
premature. At least the two sides continue to talk.


6. (C) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD