NO CLEAR LEADER EMERGES FROM THE FOURTH PHASE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001946

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: ECL: 04/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM PINR SCUL KDEM KISL IN
SUBJECT: NO CLEAR LEADER EMERGES FROM THE FOURTH PHASE OF
THE UTTAR PRADESH ELECTION

REF: A. NEW DELHI 1915


B. NEW DELHI 1699

C. NEW DELHI 1675

D. NEW DELHI 1508

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The fourth phase of the contentious Uttar
Pradesh (UP) elections came off without a hitch in a remote
area of the state bordering on Nepal, which has been a
stronghold of the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP). An
influential caste leader from the area split from the SP and
launched his own party to challenge SP dominance. Exit polls
indicate, however, that the SP met the challenge and was the
clear winner in this phase, with up to 29 OF 57 seats
contested. While most polls show the BSP in second place,
some claim the BJP is ahead. Despite the projected SP
victory in this phase, most observers continue to agree that
it will slip to second or third place when the state-wide
results are announced and that the BSP will emerge as the
state's largest party. Although Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh and Priyanka Gandhi campaigned for Congress, no one is
predicting their party's revival. Congress fortunes are
slipping, and there is no indication that the UP election
will end the slide. This is prompting Delhi rumor mills to
go into overtime, with predictions that UPA allies are
planning to leave after the UP elections and bring down the
government. The rumors are fed by repeated Communist threats
to withdraw support and by alleged meetings between regional
party leaders said to be plotting against the UPA. Some
rumors project that disgruntled regional parties will side
with the BJP, others claim they are plotting with the
Communists. Should UP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav
(perhaps in collusion with the BJP) return to power in
Lucknow, he can be expected to support gathering efforts to
undermine the UPA. Such political threats will make the UPA
even more cautious on the nuclear deal and economic reforms.
End Summary.

More Kudos for the Election Commission
--------------


2. (U) On April 23, 922 candidates contested for 57
Legislative Assembly seats in the fourth phase of the UP
election. The area, in East UP along the Nepal border, has a
35 percent Muslim population, while 15 percent belong to the
Kurmi caste. Influential Kurmi leader Beni Prasad Verma
split from the ruling Samajwadi Party (SP) to form his own
grouping, the Samajwadi Kranti Dal (SKD),after protracted
sparring with SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav. Verma ran a
slate of Kurmi and Muslim candidates, splitting the
once-solid SP vote. The election, in violent and
corruption-ridden UP, has gone off to date without incident,
winning warm praise for the Election Commission. There were
15.5 million registered voters in the fourth phase, but only
46 percent cast their ballots. Observers blamed the low
turnout on a large population of low-caste migrant workers
who take little or no interest in politics. Press reports
indicate that as many as 118 of the 922 candidates had felony
charges pending against them. There are three remaining
phases in the Election, which will conclude on May 8.

Polls Show SP Ahead
--------------


3. (U) The exit polls indicate that Verma's SKD did not
split the SP as expected. As a result, the SP is projected
to win a clear majority of the 57 seats. The projections are
as follows:

Samajwadi Party - 25-29 seats

BSP - 13-17 seats


NEW DELHI 00001946 002 OF 004


BJP - 10-14 seats

Congress - 1-5 seats


4. (U) While the SP is the clear projected winner in this
phase, pollsters agree that it will suffer a loss in the
overall state-wide results. There is some disagreement
regarding BJP prospects, with some polls showing the BJP in
the number two slot. The latest NDTV projections for the
state as a whole are as follows:

BSP - 131-141 seats (up from 98)

Samajwadi Party - 109-119 (down from 145)

BJP - 91-101 (down from 107)

Congress - 33-43 (up from 25)

Polls Should be Banned
--------------


5. (U) The Election Commission is clearly fed up with the
media exit polls and has petitioned the Supreme Court to ban
them, or at the very least delay their release until all
polling is completed. The EC argued that in the
just-concluded Punjab election, television stations were
broadcasting exit poll results while voters were still at the
polls. In its presentation, the EC pointed out that "the
methodology of the opinion/exit polls varies from
organization to organization. As a result, such exercises
are always off the mark and affect free and fair elections."
In its reply, the courts stated that, at present, there is no
law on the books that bans exit polling, and it is too late
to draft legislation that would apply to the UP contest.

Congress Defends Rahul - Attacks Mulayam
--------------


6. (U) Reeling from criticism of Rahul Gandhi on the UP
campaign trail (Reftel A),the party brought Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh and Rahul's sister Priyanka Vadra on to the
hustings. Both issued spirited defenses of Rahul. The Prime
Minister pointed out that the UPA government has generously
provided development funds to the SP government in UP, which
fails to utilize them. Singh noted that "had the money been
utilized properly and the Central schemes implemented in
right earnest, Uttar Pradesh would have presented a different
picture of development and progress." For example, he
pointed out, the GOI has provided funding to hire 200,000 new
teachers, and build 25,000 new schools and 100,000 new
classrooms, but there is nothing on the ground to show how
the money has been spent. PM Singh ridiculed Mulayam for
instead simply giving away money to the "unemployed."
Emphasizing that the common man in UP does not feel secure
because of Mulayam's "goonda raj (criminal rule)," the PM
maintained that "Only the Congress is capable of restoring
the rule of law in Uttar Pradesh."


7. (U) Addressing Mulayam's criticism of Rahul as a
"political novice," Priyanka noted that "No one should write
off anyone in politics. My brother will prove Mulayam wrong
with time and in days to come." Priyanka also assailed
critics of Rahul's statements on the division of Pakistan,
intoning that "he knows history very well." In Lucknow,
Bollywood film starlet and UP native Celina Jaitley told a
rally that she considers Rahul "a born leader," and expressed
optimism that when he "emerges as the undisputed leader of
India, the fate of the country would change."

All Eyes Are on UP
--------------


8. (U) Writing in the Asian Age, disgraced former Minister

NEW DELHI 00001946 003 OF 004


for External Affairs Natwar Singh intoned that "The eyes of
the country are on UP. The outcome will decide the fate of
the Manmohan Singh government and also who the next President
of India will be." The importance of the current election
was underscored by a campaign rally in Allahabad at which
former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha expressed strong
support for Mulayam and the SP. Joining her on the podium
were the former Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka
and Haryana - N. Chandrababu Naidu, S. Bangarappa and O.P.
Chautala. At the rally, Bangarappa, who is currently an SP
MP, maintained that if the SP returns to power in Lucknow, it
will portend a change of government in New Delhi. Attacking
Congress for mis-management of the nation's affairs,
Bangarappa said that it is "imperative" to form a third front
government. He urged the state's voters to work to unseat
the UPA after the UP election is concluded. OP Chautala, who
heads the Indian National Lok Dal, claimed that the assembled
politicians were already working on the formation of a "third
front," and that "UP would decide the future of the country's
politics."

The Communists Grow Restive
--------------


9. (U) With the UP election providing the background and
impetus, the leadership of both the CPI and the CPI(M) again
expressed unhappiness with the UPA government and threatened
to withdraw and join a "third front." CPI General Secretary
AB Bardhan noted that "the Left parties will have to do a
collective rethink on the support extended to the UPA after
the UP Assembly elections." An editorial in the CPI(M)
journal "People's Democracy" warned that "the government
should not take the support of the Left parties for granted
by posing the threat of the BJP." It argued that the BJP
resurgence was due to the "political and economic measures
which create the ground for the communal forces to feed on
popular discontent." The article specifically criticized the
UPA for "going ahead with negotiations with the United States
for nuclear cooperation despite opposition at home, and to
its being silent on the hostile stance taken by the US on the
transfer of sensitive technology."

Comment - UPA Up Against the Wall
--------------


10. (C) There is a growing perception among the political
cognoscenti that Congress and the UPA are in deep trouble.
The poor Congress electoral performance in a string of
elections, coupled with the party's poor performance on the
campaign trail in UP, have spurred rumors that the UPA
government may be shaky. Delhi rumor mills are pulsing with
speculation regarding purported meetings of powerful regional
politicians discussing defections from the UPA that could
bring down the government and bring on a new national
election. The appearance of regional politicians at the SP
rally in Allahabad and the vociferous backbiting of the Left
parties will feed the rumor mills. There is a growing
feeling that UP has become a test for Congress and that it is
not showing the skills, program or popular following required
to keep together a contentious alliance and meet the growing
BJP challenge. Congress is a virtual non-player in UP and
has done little to revive in this election. Should Mulayam
(possibly in an alliance with the BJP) come back to power in
Lucknow, he can be expected to throw down the gauntlet and
work with opposition parties to challenge the UPA in Delhi.
An increasingly desperate Congress can only hope that
Mayawati emerges as a clear front-runner or that a "hung
assembly" provides the UPA with an opportunity to declare
"President's rule" in the troubled state and keep Mulayam and
the BJP at bay for a while longer. This could have a
deleterious affect on nuclear negotiations, economic reforms
and other major bilateral initiatives.


11. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:

NEW DELHI 00001946 004 OF 004


(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD