RECORD CROWD ATTENDS HARDLINE SEPARATIST GEELANI'S

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001920

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: RECORD CROWD ATTENDS HARDLINE SEPARATIST GEELANI'S
RETURN TO KASHMIR


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Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius, Reason 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In a show of force as well as strength,
hardline separatist Sayeed Ali Shah Geelani held a rally in
Srinagar on April 22nd to mark his return to the Valley
following cancer surgery in Mumbai. Our interlocutors say
the rally was attended by several thousand mostly young
people -- demonstrating a consolidation of the hardline
faction of Kashmiris, who reject the current peace process
and claim they will settle for nothing short of independence
from India to resolve the conflict. Standing in Srinagar's
Eidgah ground (or martyr's cemetery) Geelani denounced the
United States for denying him a visa, saying the nation is a
"murder country" and blaming Americans for killing thousands
of Muslims across the world. Masked youths carrying the
flags of Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) also
attended the rally -- a unique demonstration of defiance even
for Geelani, although he took pains to distance himself from
the groups, saying they were there in their "individual
capacity." End Summary.

A Relatively Large Showing
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2. (C) Hardline Kashmiri Separatist leader Sayeed Ali Shah
Geelani returned to the Srinagar Valley on April 22nd,
following a successful kidney surgery in Mumbai. Geelani's
followers arrived en masse, following him in a procession
from the airport to a rally in the Eidgah (or martyr's
cemetery) in the old part of Srinagar, which is usually seen
as a stronghold of moderate separatist Mirwaiz Omar Farooq.
AFP journalist Izhar Wani told Senior Pol FSN that there were
between 40,000 and 45,000 people in the rally, with mostly
young people in the crowd, and Shujaat Bukhari of The Hindu
said this was the biggest rally of the recent past. J&K
Police Additional Director General Kuldeep Khoda, however,
placed the crowd size at about 12,000 people. Muzamil Jalil
of the Indian Express said this was a show of force from the
rural, mostly Jamaat Islami party cadre from villages around
Srinagar. He said the numbers likely demonstrate a
frustration among the local population -- when nothing
tangible comes out of dialogue for moderate separatists, the
hardline gets strengthened.

Terrorists on Public Display
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3. (C) Muzamil Jalil of the Indian Express said Geelani began
to talk about his visa denial in a "sudden tirade against the
US," and press reports say Geelani called America a "murder
country" responsible for killing lakhs (or 100,000s) of
Muslims across the world. Press reports detailed the
appearance of masked youths carrying flags for JuD and LeT at
the rally, indicating an unusually public nexus between
Geelani, who has longstanding ties to the Hizbul Mujahideen,
and the LeT, which is considered more hardline and Pakistani.
Geelani distanced himself from the terrorist groups, saying
he is for "peaceful struggle," but adding that if any armed
group takes a procession there, they are doing it in their
"individual capacity." Geelani denounced the peace process,
declaring his intention to boycott the PM's round table
process and any future election in J&K, rejecting President
Musharraf's four point proposals for a resolution, as well as
any notion of self-governance or soft borders. Geelani

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called for the struggle to continue until India declares a
plebiscite in J&K, even if India and Pakistan reach and
agreement independently to resolve their dispute. "Nothing
short of independence is acceptable to the people of
Kashmir," he claimed. Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party
leaders later denounced the rally, saying the LeT's presence
demonstrated that the situation in Srinagar is worsening day
by day, and accusing the Congress-led government of being
soft on terrorism.

A Growing Hardline?
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4. (C) Comment: Geelani's return comes on the heels of
multiple political rallies from across the spectrum of
politicians in Srinagar, including moderate separatists, and
should be seen in the context of the larger political
campaign season that is fully underway in the Valley. At the
very least, a public show of force by terrorists in the
Valley will weaken former PDP Chief Minister Mufti Muhammad
Sayeed's hand in trying to call for a withdrawal or drawdown
of troops in J&K. Worse, however, would be if the warnings
we have heard over the last several months from moderate
separatists are true that Geelani's cadre would grow in
strength if the Indian government remains quiet in the face
of broad gestures by moderate leaders. It is likely too
soon to tell if this rally will signal a resurgence of the
hardline in Srinagar. Nonetheless, Geelani's open show of
force with LeT in attendance suggests that he was an
extremely poor candidate for a U.S. visa. End Comment.
MULFORD