BJP WINS BIG IN DELHI LOCAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001675

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL PINR IN
SUBJECT: BJP WINS BIG IN DELHI LOCAL ELECTIONS

REF: A. 06 NEW DELHI 7827


B. NEW DELHI 1536

Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)

VOTERS OPT FOR THE BJP
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1. (C) On April 5, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept
Delhi's Municipal Council polls, winning 164 of 272 seats (60
percent),reducing Congress from 103 seats to 67. The
widely-predicted outcome boosted BJP spirits on the eve of
the multi-stage Uttar Pradesh (UP) elections. After its
victories in Punjab and Uttarakhand, the BJP has declared the
Delhi outcome to be another nail in the coffin of the
beleaguered UPA government and is expressing increasing
confidence that it can win the 2009 Parliamentary elections
and unseat the UPA.

CONGRESS GETS HIT IN THE GUT
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2. (U) In the previous MCD polls, Congress won 103 seats, the
BJP 19, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 1, and
Independents and other smaller parties 24. This year, with
272 seats up for grabs, the BJP took 164, leaving Congress
with just 67, while the BSP picked up 17, and Independents
and other smaller parties took five. The two primary issues
that hurt Congress were the sealing and demolition of illegal
businesses in residential areas (reftel A),which impacted
the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of Delhi traders, and
on-going consumer angst over inflation, which has increased
the cost of basic food items. Aside from a few minor
incidents, voting was peaceful.

CONGRESS LEADERSHIP MIGHT FACE CHALLENGES
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3. (C) The severity of the defeat has resulted in calls for a
total shake-up of the Delhi Congress party. Although the
Congress uhrashing resulted from its poor handling of the
sealing issue (reftel A),widespread corruption, and
inflation, Chief Minister Sheila Dixit and other Congress
leaders have refused to accept responsibility. On April 2,
Hindustan Times Political Editor Pankaj Vohra asserted to
Poloff that a BJP victory would pose a serious challenge to
the continued leadership of Delhi Chief Minister Sheila
Dixit. However, fully aware that Congress was headed for
defeat, Dixit moved to avoid blame by deliberately
restricting her campaigning to a few select Congress
strongholds. As a result, Congress won 10 of the 12
constituencies in which she campaigned. Dixit is using these
results to bolster her case to the Congress high command that
she remains as popular as ever and head off calls for her
resignation or replacement. Dixit and Delhi Congress
President Ram Babu Sharma know this election outcome could
destroy their political careers and have tried to pass the
buck and blame each other for the defeat.

COMMENT: RISING LOTUS TIDE FOR UTTAR PRADESH
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4. (C) With victory following victory across the country,
from local elections in Maharastra and UP to state Assembly
elections in Punjab and Uttarakhand, Delhi is another notch
in the BJP belt. Anti-incumbency is clearly taking a heavy
toll on Congress and its 2009 national election prospects are
growing dimmer. In addition, the performance in Delhi of
Mayawati's pro-Dalit BSP demonstrated that it is making a
significant dent in Congress's traditional vote banks of
Dalits and minorities. An increasingly desperate Congress
leadership is hoping against hope that a better than expected
performance in Uttar Pradesh will restore its shattered
confidence (septel). Meanwhile, onion prices and
anti-incumbency are putting a strut in the BJP's step.

NEW DELHI 00001675 002 OF 002


MULFORD