NO CLEAR OUTCOME IN SIGHT FOR UPCOMING UTTAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001508

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM KISL SCUL IN
SUBJECT: NO CLEAR OUTCOME IN SIGHT FOR UPCOMING UTTAR
PRADESH ELECTIONS


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Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Although the election is set to commence on
April 7, UP politics remain as confused and murky as ever.
In the past few weeks, a close associate of Uttar Pradesh
(UP) Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav has bolted to form a
new party, and his Muslim support base appears to be
increasingly disaffected, with many also likely to defect.
Our sources tell us that many within the SP inner circle see
defeat looming. Despite a recently released poll showing the
BSP and SP in a virtual dead heat, we assess that BSP support
will increase in the weeks leading up to election day, with
Mayawati's BSP most likely to emerge with the largest number
of seats. The BSP would then have little trouble attracting
sufficient support from independents and other parties
(including Congress) to form the government. However, any
BSP arrangement is likely to be unstable. Most expect new
elections within a year. Although the BJP is rumored to be
contemplating a post-election coalition government with the
SP, we assess that it would prefer to remain in opposition
and let the BSP government collapse of its own weight. If UP
goes to the polls again at the same time as the 2009
Parliamentary contest, the BJP could then entertain hopes of
grabbing power in Lucknow and Delhi as part of a nationwide
sweep. End Summary.

Mulayam On the Ropes
--------------


2. (SBU) On March 19, Beni Prasad Verma, a longtime
associate of SP President and UP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh
Yadav formally parted company with his mentor, leaving the
party to form his own political group, the Samajwadi Kranti
Dal (SKD). Verma announced on March 28 that he will field 12
candidates in the fourth phase of the UP election scheduled
for April 23 in his "pocket boroughs" in Barabank and
Bahraich districts. Verma has a strong personal following in
these areas, and his candidates could defeat the rival SP
nominees. Since his defection, Verma has met several times
with Mulayam, who purportedly begged him to return but to no
avail. In another sign of the growing rift, Verma's son
Rakesh, a minister in the UP Cabinet, refused to accept an SP
ticket and will run as an SKD candidate against the SP
nominee in his constituency. UP Labor Minister and close
Mulayam associate Waquar Ahmed Shah occupies a seat in
Bahraich district. Verma is pitting Mrs. Reshma Arif against
Shah. Wife of leading Muslim politician and former Delhi
Cabinet Minister Arif Mohammad Khan, Arif is a strong
contender, who previously represented Bahraich in the
Legislative Assembly. Arif Mohammad Khan, who enjoys
considerable prestige among UP Muslims, is said to have
joined the SKD and plans to run on an SKD ticket in the 2009
Lok sabha Elections. Verma's departure follows on the heels
of the earlier split with powerful Jat leader Ajit Singh, who
pulled his Rashtriya Lok Dal out of the SP alliance.


3. (C) On March 22, Poloff met with a representative of
Mohammad Azam Khan, one of the original founders of the SP
and a member of Mulayam's inner circle. Khan is currently
the UP Power and Parliamentary Affairs Minister and has
engineered Mulayam's political strategies since the SP was

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founded. Khan's representative suggested that he does not
expect the SP government to last, is looking at other
options, and wants to cultivate ties to the Embassy, despite
the avowed anti-Americanism of the SP. The willingness of
Arif Mohammad Khan and his wife to run against Mulayam and
Mohammad Azam Khan's feelers confirm what we have been
hearing from numerous sources, namely that Muslims are
increasingly disenchanted with the SP and unlikely to vote
for it in the strong numbers seen in previous contests.
Should large numbers of Muslims desert, the SP would have a
difficult time clinging to power.

BSP Breaks the Mold
--------------


4. (SBU) In 2005, the BSP held its first "Brahmin
Conference" in Lucknow. The aim of the meeting was to entice
Brahmins into joining the BSP, which was founded and
structured as a party for Dalits and other low caste groups.
Many dismissed Mayawati's strategy as naive wishful thinking,
but she has stubbornly pursued it, and it now appears to be
bearing fruit. In the run-up to the UP elections, Mayawati
has organized Brahmin conferences all over UP, which have
been well-attended by both Brahmins and Dalits. At the
rallies, Brahmin speakers pledging loyalty to Mayawati and
the BSP have been cheered on by Dalits. Mayawati currently
enjoys the ironclad loyalty of the Dalits, who constitute 21
percent of the state's population. Brahmins, who are 10
percent of the state's voters, have been politically adrift.
Formerly with Congress and the BJP, many could be attracted
to vote BSP in this contest, especially if the party sponsors
large numbers of Brahmin candidates. A significant shift of
Brahmins to the BSP could deprive the BJP of a crucial "vote
bank" and undercut its hopes for a large increase in seats in
the upcoming election (septel).

Rahul Runs Against Congress
--------------


5. (C) Family heir apparent Rahul Gandhi has taken control
of the Congress campaign in recent weeks, addressing party
rallies throughout the state and meeting with local notables.
While on the campaign trail, Rahul remarked that if a member
of the Gandhi dynasty has been in control of the country, the
Babri Mosque would never have been demolished. He was
excoriated for these statements in the English language
press, with the BJP charging Rahul with being disrespectful
for criticizing then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, who is
deceased and cannot defend himself (and was a Congress
member). Our contacts in UP were more upbeat, stating that
Rahul was well-received in the countryside. UP interlocutors
praised Rahul for demonstrating astuteness by distancing the
family dynasty from the lackluster Congress Party apparatus
and reminding rural voters to vote for the Gandhi family
rather than the party. Reinforcing BJP accusations that
Congress panders to Muslims, Rahul also made a lengthy stop
at the Islamic seminary at Deoband, where he courted the
senior leadership of the Deobandi sect. Barelvi Muslims have
already indicated their distaste with the ruling SP
government and willingness to give Congress serious
consideration, and we are told that the Deobandi leaders were

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clearly pleased by the attention they received from Rahul,
with many willing to withdraw support from the SP and switch
to Congress.


6. (SBU) On March 27, efforts to form an anti-Mulayam
alliance based around Congress came to a halt, as talks
between Congress and various non-BJP, non-SP, and non-BSP
parties ended without result. Press reports blamed Rahul for
the breakdown, noting that he is not in favor of making the
concessions necessary to build credible alliances and
believes that Congress will be strengthened if it contests
alone. As a result, Congress plans to field 336 candidates
in UP's 403 constituencies. It was hoped that a Congress-led
alliance with the RLD, former Prime Minister VP Singh's Jan
Morcha and up to 16 other small parties could negotiate seat
adjustments that would field unity candidates against the SP
in key constituencies and bag as many as 80 seats in the
election. Without the alliance, the anti-Mulayam vote will
be split between Congress, the BJP, the BSP and the smaller
parties, giving a breather to the SP in some crucial
contests.

The First Poll is Unreliable
--------------


7. (U) On March 26, CNN-IBN released the first of what
promises to be many state-wide political polls. The news
network polled a sample of over 11,000 voters between March
19 and 23. It determined that if an election were held
during the polling period, the SP and BSP would be in a
virtual dead heat, with only a one percent difference between
them. The SP would purportedly win 145-155 seats, while the
BSP would carry 140-150. Surprisingly, the BJP would decline
to 50-60 seats. Congress would remain at 20-30 seats. The
remaining 30-40 seats were likely to go to others and
independents, including Ajit Singh's RLD and the Jan Morcha.
CNN-IBN claimed that the poll portends a "hung assembly," as
no party will be able to immediately form the government.


8. (C) The poll was almost immediately discounted for a
variety of reasons. The Indian Express pointed out that
every poll projection in UP has under-estimated the final
electoral performance of the BSP. The poll also fails to
take into account the high volatility of the Muslim voter.
Many have not yet decided who they will vote for and could
remain undecided almost up to the day of the election.
Should Muslims shift away from the SP, the newspaper pointed
out, Congress would be the biggest beneficiary, and SP the
biggest loser. The poll was also taken before Rahul Gandhi
became actively involved in the campaign and does not measure
his impact. Some UP contacts contend that the poll was
commissioned and paid for by Mulayam henchman Amar Singh.
They argue that an increasingly desperate Mulayam is
spreading large sums of money around UP in a last ditch
effort to stave off impending defeat and worked with CNN-IBN
to produce a "fixed" poll. The BJP dismissed the poll as
"trash," They told the "Hindu" that, despite the poll, the
BJP is "gaining ground."

Comment: Rats Leaving the Ship
--------------

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9. (C) A wide-range of UP contacts continue to assert that
Mulayam and the ruling SP are in serious trouble and likely
to lose many seats. They point to near universal disgust at
the high level of crime and corruption in the state that has
thoroughly disenchanted the population. Mulayam and his
inner circle are said to be increasingly worried and they
should be. Key Mulayam allies and associates have bailed out
in recent weeks and this could be only the beginning. Should
the perception grow that Mulayam's rule is coming to an end,
there could be a rush to the exits in the weeks leading to
the election. Although there are continuing rumors that
Mulayam is prepared to ditch his Muslim supporters and enter
into an unprincipled "marriage of convenience" with the BJP
to save his regime, we do not see this as a likely outcome.
In our estimation, the BJP would prefer to sit in the
opposition and let Mayawati's BSP form the next government.
The BJP would then let the jury-rigged affair self-destruct.

Some Scenarios
--------------


10. (C) There is a good chance that any government formed by
the famously tempestuous Mayawati would be short-lived. If
the BJP is lucky, UP would be going to the polls in 2009 at
the same time as the Parliamentary elections. The BJP could
then pick up UP as part of a possible wave that would bring
it into power at the Center. Polling data aside, the BSP
islikely to do better on election day than many currently
think, while the BJP could prove over-optimistic in its
assessment. At present, the BSP seems most likely to emerge
with the largest number of seats, and the party most likely
to form the next government. If it falls short of a
majority, there will be plenty of independents and other
parties willing to form a coalition government. Congress
could also support such an arrangement in the "horse-trading"
likely to follow the polls.


11. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD